2020 is the 2nd closest election in modern history

[ElectionsGuy]

2020 is going to be the least decisive victory besides 2000 in the modern era, just slightly closer than 2016.

A candidate's electoral vote tally is of course completely misleading. The margin they won the tipping-point state in the electoral college tells us a lot more about how decisive the election actually was. Here's every election from closest to largest (up to 10%) by that measure - how much the winning candidate won the tipping point state by. 2012 and 2020 had very similar popular votes, but 2012 was a decisive win for Obama, while 2020 was a very narrow win for Biden.

I shaded the years below by "party system" - a defined system of political time periods.

2000: R+0.0% (FL)
1884: D+0.1% (NY)
1916: D+0.4% (CA)
1876: R+0.5% (SC)
2020: D+0.6% (WI)
2016: R+0.8% (WI)
1960: D+0.8% (NJ)
1948: D+0.8% (IL)
1888: R+1.1% (NY)
1976: D+1.7% (WI)
1880: R+1.9% (NY)
2004: R+2.1% (OH)
1968: R+2.9% (IL)
1892: D+3.4% (NY)
1992: D+4.7% (TN)
1896: R+4.8% (OH)
1944: D+5.0% (NY)
2012: D+5.4% (CO)
1900: R+6.6% (OH)
1940: D+6.9% (PA)
1868: R+7.4% (AR)
1988: R+7.9% (MI)
1980: R+7.9% (IL)
1996: D+9.2% (PA)
2008: D+9.5% (IA)
1908: R+9.6% (KS)

[ElectionsGuy]

While I get it and I've used this myself, this also feels like a strange metric to me in a way. The tipping point state only matters because of the electoral college, so why not just look at the electoral college directly? 

Because of the electoral college's winner-take-all nature. Donald Trump was 37 electoral votes away from winning (more than John Kerry) but was 0.6% away from winning those electoral votes (closer than John Kerry).

[ElectionsGuy]

Biden won by 7 million+ votes.

Not close.

Abolish the Electoral College.

https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1325465642754068480?s=20

https://twitter.com/brianklaas/status/1334138925795975169?s=20

https://twitter.com/JoshuaADouglas/status/1335218799931494401?s=20

https://twitter.com/jdsoup/status/1333503514492989447?s=20

I'm curious Gass. Do you think that the 2016 election was close? 78K votes between 3 states in 2016 is larger than 45K votes between 3 states in 2020. You quoting Dem pundits to prop up a braggadocious talking point doesn't change that, and the popular vote doesn't decide the election. We can argue it should, but that's an alternative thread.

[ElectionsGuy]

Biden won by 7 million+ votes.

Not close.

Abolish the Electoral College.

snip

I'm curious Gass. Do you think that the 2016 election was close? 78K votes between 3 states in 2016 is larger than 45K votes between 3 states in 2020. You quoting Dem pundits to prop up a braggadocious talking point doesn't change that, and the popular vote doesn't decide the election. We can argue it should, but that's an alternative thread.

I quoted three Political Science professors (you know the people with doctorates/law degrees who get paid to teach how elections work) and a CNN anchor. Didn't know those count as Dem pundits.

Yeah, and those people obviously favor Democrats based on all the stuff they post on Twitter. The reason I made this thread was to distinguish the decisiveness of the electoral college win from the raw number of EC votes and popular votes, which those smart people with degrees (which automatically means they're objective and neutral?) want to point to because it favors their political narrative.