Xing's final prediction (user search)
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Author Topic: Xing's final prediction  (Read 2151 times)
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« on: November 11, 2020, 11:57:14 AM »


When are you going to give up your Nevada charade Xing? At some point, it's got to become tiring.
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ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #1 on: November 14, 2020, 10:11:41 AM »

you have got tx shaded in both blue and red for president on here also, furthermore it's listed for biden but counted toward being added onto trump's EV total as well!

Fixed. I changed my prediction to Biden at the last minute (d'oh!) and didn't update the numbers. It seems like I shouldn't make any last minute changes to my predictions, because they always end up being wrong! (Throughout 2018, I had Democrats winning KS-GOV and losing OH-GOV, but I switched them the day before the election.)


When are you going to give up your Nevada charade Xing? At some point, it's got to become tiring.

While you've generally been a good poster, I'd appreciate you dropping the "liberals living in a bubble" refrain you've been making over the past year. Yes, to an extent some are, but many simply looked at what the data said, and even though the data isn't always going to be right, it's at least better than why some Trump supporters didn't believe the polls (I don't like what these numbers say, so they must be wrong!) This "libs in a bubble" argument also gets very "tiring", since so many people already pretty much have it on loop, and it doesn't contribute to the conversation.

I've admitted that I was wrong about NV this year and why I was off (thanks lfromnj and Calthrina for pointing this out), and yes, I'll acknowledge that NV will remain competitive for the time being, though I think that the Washoe numbers should at least concern Republicans. I get that your predictions were better than most this year, but you'd had a bad tendency over the past few days to rub it in everyone's face, including in threads where people weren't necessarily wrong. You're better than this.

Ok, I'm sorry. I wasn't aware that you had said anything in regard to Nevada. The reason I chose that specifically and not anything else, is that you have been very forthright and confident that Nevada was a solid (or likely) Dem state, and wouldn't be close. It was similar but less obnoxious to how MT Treasurer was obsessed with the idea that Montana and Kansas would be more competitive than Iowa (which didn't come to fruition). It was a schtick, and it didn't age well. That's all, I recognize it wasn't the best thing I could've responded to in hindsight.

Here's the thing about my posting lately. I know it's been a bit abrasive, a bit polarizing, but I was told I was completely wrong all year. I was completely out of step with everybody else, including Republicans (we don't have real Republicans on this forum, more on that below). That screws with your head, and when it ends up that they were badly wrong and I ended up having a better grasp of how this thing turned out, yes I am going to point it out, not because I'm some narcissit who needs to give myself a pat on the back (I've had poor self-esteem for most of my life), but because they deserve some criticism for the amount of hostility they have thrown towards me or anybody with a different view (not to mention, the cliqueish nature for 10 people to jump on 1, which happened A LOT). If they can attack me and others for months and months before an election, can I at least talk about how badly they did for a few weeks, super confident while belittling and personally attacking others' intelligence or character (I'm not talking about you here)? Quality posters like FrenchRepublican literally stopped posting for months because he was sick and tired of the personal insults thrown towards him. It's not something that I'm just making up. I am defensive in nature, I'm trying not to bump threads or call out people unless they attack me or others unfairly, or are just so wrong while being arrogantly/smugly confident. I will not apologize for critiquing this behavior. I also try not to go down to their behavior of name calling and such, if you can point me to an instance where I participated in that kind of behavior, I will apologize for it and call it out myself.

I don't think ALL of my posting has been the "liberals living in a bubble" them that you've characterized. I post basic thoughts and analysis on elections without responding to a person or a common narrative a decent amount, but I have increased the proportion of my posts that have been pushback/critique in manner. The reason why is this place IS a bubble, a bad one. It has gotten much worse since Trump has become president. It's not only that it's 80/20 D/R, but the Independents and R's here are almost exclusively anti-Trump, unlike the real world, so it's even more skewed than it looks. You notice I don't talk about my personal opinions, like ever anymore? It's because of the kind of toxic name-calling and groupthink barriers that I've seen just browsing sections of the forum. You guys wonder why people don't want to talk to pollsters, maybe it's because the people know the media who conducts these polls despises them, has contempt for them, much like most of the posters on this forum has contempt for anyone who voted for Trump or has ANYTHING positive to say about him. How many times did I get called a Trump supporter, just because I thought he was going to do better than the polls suggested, to try and discredit me? It is clear as day, based on the stuff most of you guys post (again, I'm not talking specifically to you here) that many of y'all do not interact with ANY person who has significantly different political beliefs. If you did, you'd have more respect and open-mindedness, instead of assuming the worst about people right off the bat.

Years ago, I wouldn't be afraid to spill my own view into the individual politics area of the forum, because generally, I didn't get people questioning my sanity or intelligence. Nowadays, just by looking at what some of you people post I know I would be ganged up on and called names if I posted my views on what's going on in the world today (which aren't extreme at all, but much more right-wing than the average person here) People generally respond by saying this is a way more high-quality discussion board than most forums and comments sections, to dismiss these criticisms. And while that's true, we still should be above that, and engage in actual conversations instead of one line responses like "so stupid". What does it say that I've been reluctant to share ANY of my actual political views when I previously wasn't? My personal confidence has increased with my age, but I just don't want to deal with unnecessary ad hominem attacks. My views, if anything, have gotten more LIBERAL over the years, and this forum hasn't necessarily gotten more liberal, but it has gotten more culturally insular and the TOLERANCE for anybody outside a narrow range of thoughts is lower than ever. That's the problem.

That's why I am the way I am now. I will scale back some of my critiquing if I get the sense that it changes for the better, but I will continue to call out BS when I see it, unapologetically.
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