Clemson Palmetto Poll-SC: Biden 35, Steyer 17, Sanders 13, Buttigieg 8, Warren 8

[ElectionsGuy]

0% chance Steyer comes in 2nd.

If the result looks like this, which we shouldn’t rule out because Clemson was the only pollster that got it right in 2016, then I don’t think Bernie will be the nominee.  It would signal that he’s getting shut out across the Deep South, making it really hard to even come close to racking up a majority of pledged delegates.

The only reason that was the case it because every poll underestimated Hillary's margin in 2016. That's like saying we should trust Trafalgar because they nailed Pennsylvania and Michigan in 2016.

[ElectionsGuy]

Crosstabs: http://newsstand.clemson.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/2020-Palmetto-Poll-Results.pdf

Wait... TWO-THIRDS aged 55 and up?

HAHAHAHAHA omg...

SC 2016 EXIT POLL per CNN
17-24: 7 %
25-29: 8 %
30-39: 13 %
40-49: 16 %
50-64: 38 %
65+: 19 %
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2016/primaries/polls/SC/Dem

If you combine 50-64 and 65+ you got 57 % of the Electorate being 50 years and older so it's not unreasonable.

Clemson has clearly been operating the their Model based on the '16 Exits.

So the Question is: Will 2020 have the same or rougly the same Electorate as it did in '16? If YES Biden wins big, if it's a younger Electorate we will have a much tighter Race.

Sanders need to drive young People or middle aged Voters to the Polls.

This poll shows 64% 55+ while the 2016 exits show 57% 50+, so that's no small discrepancy. I would say the other major thing about the age of the poll is only 3% are 25 and under (which is undoubtedly going to be Bernie's strongest group).