Apparently a majority of people believe that Trump will win less than 55% in Hamilton County. As a reminder here are the performances of different republican candidates in 2018.
State Treasurer :
R : 62.46%
Secretary of State :
R : 59.41%
State Auditor :
R : 60.28%
House of Representatives :
R : 61.10%
Senate :
R : 52.38%
I would also highlight the fact that in every of these races the republican candidate did better in Hamilton county than statewide (or districtwide for the US House)
It's not really the question. These numbers show that Hamilton County is still a very conservative county and that contrary to a common idea on this forum it won't vote (significantly) more D than the state as whole. If Trump is really winning Hamilton county with ''only'' 53% of the vote then it's very unlikely that he is winning more than 54% in the state as whole and in a such scenario he would be destroyed at the national level. So yeah, Trump will likely win 57% to 59% of the vote in Hamilton County.
Now I agree with you on the fact that few people are paying attention to lower lever row-offices and that it's entirely possible that some people who don't like Trump are still voting R downballot, but the idea that ''Trump can't win more 52% in Hamilton because Braun won 52%'' is dumb as well, Braun is a good candidate but he was a running against a moderate, incumbent Senator, during a very D year, By highligting these numbers I just wanted to point the fact that 52% is more the R floor in this county that the ceilling.
This kind of thinking is due to 2 kinda lazy assumptions that many people are confident in:
1. The current trend of a location will continue and at the same velocity
2. 2018 midterms were a good indicator of what 2020 will be like
With an incumbent, we're not likely to see nearly as strong of trends as we did with the open election, this was true in 2004 and 2012 and it's very likely be true in 2020 as well. We went from Romney to Trump which is pretty significant. Going from Trump to Trump is not.
Poll
