Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[ElectionsGuy]

My body is ready for the Marquette poll . People don't understand how much I've been waiting for it.

How are you going to spin it if Evers is up by 5 or more?

[ElectionsGuy]

Without equivalent #s from WOW, don't get too excited.

I asked the poll workers in my precinct how turnout was today and they said "VERY good". I'm more interested to see if Dems are peeling off some voters in WOW. Evers needs to keep Walker under 70 in Waukesha to win.

[ElectionsGuy]

Without equivalent #s from WOW, don't get too excited.

I asked the poll workers in my precinct how turnout was today and they said "VERY good". I'm more interested to see if Dems are peeling off some voters in WOW. Evers needs to keep Walker under 70 in Waukesha to win.

Yup, they need to keep Walker in the low 60's in Ozaukee, high 60's in Waukesha and low 70's in Washington. Vukmir will probably underperform Walker in all and it wouldn't shock me if she preforms especially poorly in Ozaukee. I can see that as a place where once Republican women, who might still vote for Walker, would vote for Baldwin to keep Trump in check.

In theory, Vukmir should do well in these areas since that's where she's from, but with the way she has run I don't think she'll do too good. I'm thinking McCain numbers for her there.

[ElectionsGuy]

The WOW counties might surprise us. With the way Dems are being projected to make gains in the suburbs or win suburban districts, I would not be surprised if Dems make solid gains in WOW.

Only to be matched by erosion in the Driftless? Trends go both ways. 

I think if we see Republican trends, it'll be in the Northwoods and not in the SW.

[ElectionsGuy]

Walker's performance among the most college-educated areas of the state, both Democratic and Republican, cost him the election. Through no fault of his own, Walker's performance trend followed Trump's performance in the 2016 election, as did almost every Republican's performance in almost every state. The WOW counties more than cancelled out Dane in 2014, and it wasn't even close. In 2018, it wasn't close either, but this time Dane outdid WOW.

WOW 2014

Walker: 230,240 (73.3%) (+146,537, 46.6%)
Burke: 83,703 (26.7%)

WOW 2018

Walker: 229,708 (67.8%) (+120,498, 35.6%)
Evers: 109,210 (32.2%)

Dane 2014

Burke: 175,937 (70.5%) (+102,261, 41.0%)
Walker: 73,676 (29.5%)

Dane 2018

Evers: 220,008 (76.1%) (+150,810, 52.2%)
Walker: 69,198 (23.9%)

[ElectionsGuy]

Can't grab the article right now but Walker wants to schedule the presidential primary in 2020 for March instead of April. He said it's to keep the partisan from the nonpartisan for elections but in reality it's just that he's terrified of yuge Dem turnout against Republicans. Also slays his "fiscal responsibility" bullcrap he likes to spew.

I like that idea. Wisconsin will be more important to the presidential contenders.

[ElectionsGuy]

Just thought I'd share this email. Stephen Nass is an a-hole! So ashamed to have such a terrible, corrupt representative!

Um... makes me wonder what you sent him. The email didn't seem out of the ordinary. lol at "corrupt", whatever buzzwords you can throw I guess.

[ElectionsGuy]

Just thought I'd share this email. Stephen Nass is an a-hole! So ashamed to have such a terrible, corrupt representative!

Um... makes me wonder what you sent him. The email didn't seem out of the ordinary. lol at "corrupt", whatever buzzwords you can throw I guess.

I should've added that I wasn't the person who sent this email, so sorry for the lack of information. A neighbor of mine posted this on Facebook and gave me permission to share. And I stand by what I said about my Representative - he's horrible from experience!

Ok, I didn't know that. Still, the email didn't seem jerky to me. He's my state senator as well but if he's terrible from your experience then that's your opinion.

This entire garbage is entirely the reason that the WISC is so important in the coming two years. The Dems have one seat up in 2019, and the GOP has one up near the primary season in 2020. Winning both would give the Ds a majority on the court and prevent such disgusting abuses(and would also get us a court map for redistricting).

The political climate in this state stresses me out. I know that similar stuff is happening in other states (i.e. Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia), but Wisconsin politics has been extremely polarizing since Walker's Act 10, which prompted me and many of my family members to leave the public sector. It's been "Us vs. Them" in Wisconsin since 2011. WI politics was nothing like this before Walker, so what's happened to our state this past decade deeply saddens me. Our own governor bashes Madison and once said that "the last thing we need is Madison in our lives."

Couldn't that be referring to state government, cause that's where the capital is? So instead he's essentially saying we don't need government in our lives. Context would be nice.

[ElectionsGuy]

Working on some historical maps. Can anyone guess what this is a map of?

1850's governor? Very weird seeing Washington and Ozaukee dark red, even though they were really rural back then.

[ElectionsGuy]

I think this is going to be another Dallet type blowout.