Is Mississippi the Most Inelastic state and what direction is MS moving towards?

[ElectionsGuy]

Yes, and stagnant. It could inch itself a bit more Democratic in a few election cycles via slightly increasing black % of the vote, but it's gonna take decades. Unlike Georgia/North Carolina/Virginia, population growth is also stagnant so there's hardly any new voters to shift things quickly.

[ElectionsGuy]

AP and EG, you guys are are not taking into account the effect of Millennial displacement of Seniors dragging down the GOP vote among whites.

Remember as I calculated above, Whites going down to just 75% Republican, makes Mississippi a tie and the few exit polls we have show a massive skew towards Republicans among those 65 and older.

While that could happen, I don't think it's unreasonable to predict they will get more Republican with age. Taking the 18-29 or 30-39 age bracket numbers can have a high margin of error, even higher when broken down by race. There's also the possibility of Dem dropoff in the black vote by 5-10% that gets underestimated.

[ElectionsGuy]

A lot of people have wondered whether younger voters will turn MS blue as younger whites are less Republican, well according to the Fox Exit poll, Trump won voters aged 18-29 by 3% in MS, he won overall by 16.5% so there was 13-14% difference between how the electorate overall voted vs 18-29 year olds in MS, across the US as a whole, Biden won 18-29 voters by 25%, winning nationally by 4.4%.

What that means is MS is less polarized by age than the US as a whole and Trump carried 18-29 year old voters in MS which means it is likely staying red moving forward. Here is MS' partisan lean since 2000:

2000: R+17.4
2004: R+17.3
2008: R+20.4
2012: R+15.4
2016: R+19.9
2020: R+20.9

MS this year is on track to vote the most Republican relative to the country of any election this century.

All it took was a few election cycles to debunk the Mississippi trending left narrative, including coming from Republicans.