Poll: Chances Dems win control of the House in 2018? (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 02, 2024, 09:43:10 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Poll: Chances Dems win control of the House in 2018? (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: What are the chances Dems take control of the house in 2018?
#1
10%
 
#2
25%
 
#3
40%
 
#4
50%
 
#5
60%
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 117

Author Topic: Poll: Chances Dems win control of the House in 2018?  (Read 8222 times)
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« on: January 31, 2017, 03:41:37 PM »

Less than 10%.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #1 on: January 31, 2017, 04:03:06 PM »


They have a good chance at getting really close to picking it up, but they have a much better chance in 2020 if they can build off the good results in 2018 (if that happens), and if they do that they can then control some redistricting and draw districts more favorably.

In 2018, picking up 24 seats is pretty unlikely. Not going to say it won't happen, but unlikely at this point, just because picking up every Clinton district (which realistically isn't going to happen, so they need some Trump districts as well) is too hard when a lot of these guys are incumbents that are way more popular than the president and aren't going to retire.

And we can't even assume that 2018 will be bad for Republicans.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #2 on: January 31, 2017, 04:09:17 PM »

At very least I think we can all agree that 2018 will probably not be a gop wave year.

I mean Trump would have to be super popular for the Republicans to have a shot in picking up 15 to 20 house seats and getting a super majority in the Senate.

And no I do not think the Democrats will automatically pick up every single Clinton-Republican district but there are opportunity districts such as WV-03 that can be picked up in the right circumstances.


Now I'm going to have to say it. lmao.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.019 seconds with 13 queries.