538: The GOP’s Chances Of Holding The Senate Are Following Trump Downhill

[ElectionsGuy]

In the end, all but maybe two or so of the competitive Senate races will break to the Dems (if I had to guess, AZ and OH will be the two seats the GOP keeps). Dems are looking at a net gain of 8-10 right now.

lol

[ElectionsGuy]

In the end, all but maybe two or so of the competitive Senate races will break to the Dems (if I had to guess, AZ and OH will be the two seats the GOP keeps). Dems are looking at a net gain of 8-10 right now.

lol

What's funny about that? Usually almost all of the competitive Senate seats break to the winning party each election cycle. Dems gaining IL, WI, NH, IN, PA, NC, AZ, and MO (just one combination for the record) for a total of D+8 looks plausible as of now, and certainly is far more likely than Republicans somehow holding the Senate.

The problem is Missouri and North Carolina have an R advantage at least, Arizona is a toss-up at best. The others you haven't mentioned (FL, OH) are where Democrats have fell behind despite Clinton winning the states. Its definitely a possibility but wouldn't say its plausible that every race that's competitive goes Democrat.

[ElectionsGuy]

lol

The problem is Missouri and North Carolina have an R advantage at least, Arizona is a toss-up at best. The others you haven't mentioned (FL, OH) are where Democrats have fell behind despite Clinton winning the states. Its definitely a possibility but wouldn't say its plausible that every race that's competitive goes Democrat.

I forget who said it, but something like 80% of competitive Senate seats broke for the winner of the state in a presidential election year. It's also not that crazy when you think Republicans won a boatload of Senate seats in 2010 and 2014 in their blowouts, and if Democrats have their own (mini)landslide this year, it should hardly be written off.

However, I'm not exactly advocating a +8-10 seat gain, either. I think it's entirely possible and even more so the larger Clinton wins by, but if Clinton wins by 2008 margins or more, to think Democrats would only pick up a handful of Senate seats would just be crazy talk (not implying you said that, obviously)

Simply put: I think Senate gains are again going to strongly correlate with Clinton's winning margin, and a total blowout would send shockwaves downballot. Given Clinton's current numbers and polling trends, +8 is not a fever dream (imo)

Not writing it off of course, just the implication that it its the most likely scenario I don't think is realistic. If Clinton wins by the margin she's polling over Trump now, I expect her to win Pennsylvania and the four others, but Florida, Arizona, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio are all states where the senate Democrat is a slight underdog at least. Democrats winning 3-5 of those is quite hard and will likely require more unity between the presidential race and down ballot.