ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
Posts: 21,102
Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65
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« on: May 01, 2016, 05:01:53 PM » |
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This would be a scenario with Cruz losing Indiana that he would have to do in order to deny Trump the nomination.
IN: 51/57 (I think this is the most likely, but could be 54 or 48)
NE: 0/36 (If Cruz doesn't win this, then it'll be completely over early)
WV: 26/34 (conservative here for the insane delegate rules)
OR: 12/28 (conservative estimate, could be more)
WA: 18/44 (see OR)
CA: 66/172 (22 districts or less would deny him the majority. If he wins one of the WTA states, he would have to be limited to 13 districts or less. This does not even include doing better in the delegates in WV or getting more unpledged from territories and whatnot)
MT: 0/27
NJ: 51/51
NM: 10/24 (see OR and WA)
SD: 0/29
Unpledged: At least 44
Almost improbable.
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