Democratic South Carolina Primary results thread (polls close @7pm ET)

[ElectionsGuy]

There's no way she's winning more than 75%. That exists only in IceSpear's dreams.

[ElectionsGuy]

There's no way she's winning more than 70%. That exists only in IceSpear's dreams.

Look at the demographics.

If they split whites and she wins 75-25 with blacks (which is close to what she got in NV I believe) she will get to 66%.

Oops, I meant 75%. But I also think its unlikely she approaches 70%. Unless the white vote will go 60% to Clinton or something I don't think that'll happen.

On the other hand, my prediction will probably go down as one of the worst, so I think I underestimated Clinton by quite a bit, at least based on this data.

There's no way she's winning more than 70%. That exists only in IceSpear's dreams.

Uh, I predicted she'd win 64-36, so if anything I might have underestimated her.

By dreams I meant happy imaginative aspirations, not realistic predictions, but it was a joke anyway. Don't take it personally.

[ElectionsGuy]

So the conservative Democrats voted for Trump and SC white Democrats are just an ideological liberal rump at this point?

Pretty much. Dems have fallen to rock bottom with the white vote in the south, so the only ones left are the true liberals.

[ElectionsGuy]

Black voters over 65: 96-3 for Hillary!!! per MSNBC

[ElectionsGuy]

Angry white women going 51-49 to Sanders.

[ElectionsGuy]

Beaufort County is almost all in with Clinton ahead 73-26.

Wow.

I have a feeling that if that's the case then the white vote isn't going 58-42 to Bernie.

[ElectionsGuy]

This is a MASSACRE.

[ElectionsGuy]

Sanders' best county with a decent amount reporting (36%) is Pickens and its going 59% for Clinton...

[ElectionsGuy]

Yep, it'll be a county sweep.

[ElectionsGuy]

I think now I understand why Sanders isn't even contesting 6 southern states on Super Tuesday.

[ElectionsGuy]

Claredon county is 100% in and Clinton won with over 90% of the vote.

Same with Allendale, the blackest county in the state.

[ElectionsGuy]

99% in. No district won by Sanders. 73.5% to 26.0%. 37 delegates to 12.

Oh gosh, I would love to see the percentages on Clyburn's district.

[ElectionsGuy]

New delegate count is: 39 Clinton --- 14 Sanders

According to Politico its 43-14. The two remaining are uncommitted super-delegates.

[ElectionsGuy]

New delegate count is: 39 Clinton --- 14 Sanders

According to Politico its 43-14. The two remaining are uncommitted super-delegates.

I should have specified PLEDGED delegates, i.e. those who voted today.

Oh yeah, you're right.

[ElectionsGuy]

Sanders voters: 62% White, 33% Black, 5% Other
Clinton voters: 71% Black, 26% White, 3% Other

[ElectionsGuy]

Finally, the last precinct came in, the final count is...

Clinton: 271,514 (73.5%)
Sanders: 95,977 (26.0%)

What a disaster for Sanders.

In the battle for turnout...

Republicans: 737,917 (66.6%)
Democrats: 369,526 (33.4%)

[ElectionsGuy]

Couldn't the high GOP turnout be read as a straightforward consequence of the fact that the candidates (put especially Trump) are polarizing within the party?  Trump's favorability rating among Republicans who are not already supporting him for the nomination is pretty terrible.  So his fans show up in big number to back him, but his opponents show up in big numbers to stop him.  If he's the nominee, then sure, the ~35% or whatever of the party that loves him will show up big for him.  But will the rest of the party back him as overwhelmingly as the Democrats will back Clinton?

Yes, this. This is pretty much my reasoning (well explained) as to why Trump starts with a disadvantage to Clinton. I know his magical 'ceiling' from his opponents has been made fun of endlessly, but he actually does have something like a 60% ceiling (based on polling, around 40% of Republicans find him unfavorable, 30% say they would never vote for him) in the Republican primary. That is deeply divisive and troubling going into the general election.