FL: Rereredistricting

[ElectionsGuy]

I assume this new plan will hurt the Republicans. How many seats could it cost them?

Most likely 2-3 seats.

[ElectionsGuy]

Safe R pickup: 2
Lean R pickup: 18

Safe D pickup: 10
Likely D pickup: 13
Lean D pickup: 26

Toss-up: 7

We shouldn't expect much change in terms of changes in the balance of power, 1 or 2 D pickups most likely. Most of that map was fixing the Jacksonville, Tampa, and Orlando areas (so 2, 5, 10, 13 are completely different). The only one that surprised me was FL-15. That's a pretty big change from just the Lakeland area, now its up to the Lake County area. But man, Webster and Graham are absolutely SCREWED. Are they just going to retire, run for office later? Or get defeated inevitably? Curbelo looks like an underdog too.

[ElectionsGuy]

^ Its been rumored that Mica may run in the open CD6, leaving CD7 for Webster. It would still be swingy, but Webster wouldn't be guaranteed to lose like he would in CD10.

Curbelo would have lost in 2014 under the new CD26 lines.

Ah, didn't even think of that. So at least part of the current 7th district is in the new 6th? That would be a very nice loophole to save his career.

Also, any chance Graham primaries Brown for FL-5? Seems that would be her only choice, especially if she has higher ambitions (namely Governor).

[ElectionsGuy]

^ Its been rumored that Mica may run in the open CD6, leaving CD7 for Webster. It would still be swingy, but Webster wouldn't be guaranteed to lose like he would in CD10.

Curbelo would have lost in 2014 under the new CD26 lines.

Ah, didn't even think of that. So at least part of the current 7th district is in the new 6th? That would be a very nice loophole to save his career.

Also, any chance Graham primaries Brown for FL-5? Seems that would be her only choice, especially if she has higher ambitions (namely Governor).

FL and national Dems would be very wise to dissuade Graham from that at all costs.  If Corrine Brown loses to a white opponent in her first election under the new FL-05 lines, the odds of the new map being thrown out in a VRA lawsuit go up exponentially.  The ideal FL Dem scenario would be to get Graham into the 2016 senate race, then talk Murphy out of the senate race and get him to run for reelection in FL-18.  Maybe they offer him a free pass in the primary for governor or senator (if Nelson is retiring) in 2018?  Or Graham could just sit out 2016 and run for governor as a former congresswoman.  If Graham gets in the senate race while Murphy is still in, they could easily throw the primary to Grayson.

Why? Black districts can have white representatives, right? Steve Cohen is white in a black majority district.