Based on demographic trends, MS will become 50% African-American mid-century. But let's say we speed it up and it was 50% black by 2015. And also let's suppose that black turnout remains equal to white turnout as was the case in 2012, even when Obama is off the ballot. As a result democrats now win statewide elections, narrowly but consistently. The legislature would still depend on the distribution of the black vote, but let's say democrats are able to retake it as well. (it isn't gerrymandered to my knowledge)
A couple things I wonder about this situation:
1) How much of a white backlash would there be? Would they start voting 90+% for their party like blacks currently do? Or would they start rejoining the MS democratic party which is now the dominant party again? Would whites start moving out en masse in response?
2) How progressive would a state government dominated by black democrats be? Not on social issues (but still pro-choice) of course but would they go to the left or the right of national democrats on economics?
3) How long would MS stay as a one-party state? Would the GOP eventually win back enough blacks to become competitive again?
4) Would racial inequality in the state start declining? Or is it not a result of government policies?
1) Can't really imagine "white backlash", they already vote 90% Republican (at least at the federal level), I can't see them defecting to the Democratic party again after the Bush/Obama years. If the whites are really as racist as people on this forum think, they could move to Alabama or Louisiana, but I doubt that happens. They just stay put and keep voting for Republicans, as blacks are now (for Democrats).
2) Not very progressive. They would be to the right of the Democratic party as a whole (as southern black congressmen/women are), especially on social issues, but still much to the left of where Mississippi is today
3) If its 50% black, that's well over what black % it needs to be to stay democratic for a long time, I can't see the GOP winning over many blacks.
4) Eh, it could, but that's less about government policy than it is the evolution of the state. Mississippi has almost always been the poorest and least educated state in America, whether under Democratic control for 100+ years or Republican control now. Many blacks in the south don't get an even sub-par education, which is a huge problem that government itself can't really solve. Many are also born into poverty, which is a huge inherent problem. I'm not suggesting solutions to these problems but that these problems have been long term, which government hasn't improved the situation
relative to the rest of the country (it obviously has made progress, but compared to the country MS is still dead last in many areas)
The white vote is nearly maxed out in MS for Republicans at 90%, but with a clear demographic threat from blacks they could vote 95% + for Republicans. If blacks went back to turning out at lower levels as they did pre Obama, Republicans could hold onto the state for the foreseeable future.
There are some deep southern congressional districts that are over 50 % Black but vote Republican due to turnout issues.
Perhaps your talking about state legislature seats? All majority black southern Congressional districts are Democratic.
