How likely would this map be in the coming years? (user search)
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  How likely would this map be in the coming years? (search mode)
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Author Topic: How likely would this map be in the coming years?  (Read 2026 times)
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« on: March 10, 2014, 12:14:05 AM »



This is literally opposite Obama 2012. 332-206 R, roughly a 4 point win just like Obama in 2012. How likely would this map be in the coming years?
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ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #1 on: March 14, 2014, 02:01:39 PM »

Extremely unlikely. This isn't 2000/2004 era anymore.

Suggesting that republicans can't do well anymore? Or suggesting that these layout of states won are unlikely?
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ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #2 on: March 14, 2014, 09:36:53 PM »
« Edited: March 14, 2014, 11:31:10 PM by ElectionsGuy »

What makes Virginia unwinnable going forward is that unlike other swing states, such as Colorado or Florida, is that the Dem advantage as of late is built on blacks rather than Hispanics. The state is 20% black, but has a negligible Hispanic population (~4%). So even if the GOP does begin to appeal to Hispanics more, they have little chance of better appealing to those black voters that they have consistently alienated over the past 6 years with their constant dog whistling over Obama, which will keep Virginia in the Democratic column.

So it was the absence of "dog whistling" that enabled Bush to get a whopping 11% of the black vote and win Virginia by 8 points?
In that time the white vote shrank 2-3 points and Romney managed to only get around 6% of the black vote.

Not to mention huge losses with white voters as well. Went from 68% for Bush to 61% for Romney.

Nationwide Romney actually improved from Bush with White voters. Not the case in Virginia.
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