Which would flip first: Michigan or Minnesota? (user search)
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  Which would flip first: Michigan or Minnesota? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Which state would flip to the Republican column first?
#1
Michigan (D+4), Elasticity 1.03, last GOP in 1988
 
#2
Minnesota (D+2), Elasticity 1.03, Last GOP in 1972
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 68

Author Topic: Which would flip first: Michigan or Minnesota?  (Read 2415 times)
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« on: January 08, 2014, 11:51:14 PM »

Minnesota, as of recently. The state has trended more to the right over the past 30 years, so the argument for loyalty to the democratic party is slipping. Plus, I think if anything Detroit and the big cities such as Flint, Lansing, Ann Arbor, etc. some of which are heavily black, would hold the state back.
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ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #1 on: January 09, 2014, 12:22:23 AM »

Minnesota, as of recently. The state has trended more to the right over the past 30 years, so the argument for loyalty to the democratic party is slipping. Plus, I think if anything Detroit and the big cities such as Flint, Lansing, Ann Arbor, etc. some of which are heavily black, would hold the state back.

However, it is those very cities that are losing population the fastest. The Detroit metro area, has lost relatively few people compared to the city proper.

Yes, but as of now, they still hold a huge chunk of the population. Republicans also need to do better in the suburbs (Oakland and Macomb counties) if they want Michigan to flip before Minnesota.
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ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #2 on: January 09, 2014, 06:18:52 PM »

In statewide elections or presidential elections?

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ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #3 on: January 09, 2014, 08:07:32 PM »


Sorry for my retail-customer-esque post. I do believe that Michigan will be easier for the GOP to win in Presidential years.

Oh it's fine. I believed I've done that before too.
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