Flo's and ElectionGuy's Maps

[ElectionsGuy]

Mind if I butt in?

Iowa Congressional: Republican Gerrymander



1 (red): 62-36 Obama.
2 (blue): 58-40 Obama.
3 (yellow): 49-49 Obama.
4 (green): 52-46 McCain.

[ElectionsGuy]

Look out! This is messy:



My challenge here was to make an Obama district and three >70% McCain districts. And that I did.

1 (red): 53-47 Obama. 58% White
2 (blue): 64-36 McCain. 69% White
3 (yellow): 70-30 McCain. 78% White
4 (green): 71-29 McCain. 79% White
5 (orange): 72-28 McCain. 80% White

[ElectionsGuy]

My take on Wisconsin:




1 (Milwaukee/Red): 74-25 Obama. 51.5% White, 30.4% Black, 12.9% Hispanic. Safe D
2 (Racine/Kenosha/Suburbs/Blue): 50-49 Obama. 84.8% White, 6.5% Hispanic, 5.1% Black. Lean R
3 (Madison/Janesville/Yellow): 70-28 Obama. 86.7% White, 4.7% Hispanic, 3.9% Black. Safe D
4 (La Crosse/Eau Claire/Stevens Point/Green): 60-39 Obama. 94.4% White. Likely D
5 (Superior/Wausau/Orange): 54-44 Obama. 94.4% White. Toss-Up
6 (Green Bay/Purple): 53-45 Obama. 92.0% White.  Toss-Up
7 (Oshkosh/Fond du Lac/Sheboygan/Green): 51-47 Obama. 92.6% White, 3.0% Hispanic. Likely R
8 (Waukesha/West Bend/Exurbs/Brown): 59-40 McCain. 93.0% White, 3.9% Hispanic. Safe R

Just remember how deceptive these Obama 2008 numbers are. These are similar to the ones they have now, and yes this is favorable to republicans, but I don't care, Its looks nice and clean. Instead of Paul Ryan's current district, I put a southeastern based district in the way. And for Sensenbrenner, he still has a safe Waukesha based district, but he gets Walworth county in there. And the 2nd district (Pocan) gets Janesville and almost everything in Rock County.

[ElectionsGuy]

3 Obama districts in Louisiana!

The yellow was actually won quite decisively at 53-46. The other two were won by one point.

[ElectionsGuy]

Not a three, not four, but five Obama districts in South Carolina!! This is ridiculous and can't believe I pulled this off. And yes, everything here is legally connected. Here is the info:

1 (red): 49.4% Obama, 49.2% McCain. 61.2% White, 30.3% Black, 6.0% Hispanic
2 (blue): 50.2% Obama, 48.7% McCain. 65.1% White, 26.1% Black, 6.2% Hispanic
3 (yellow): 50.1% Obama, 48.8% McCain. 57.0% White, 36.8% Black.
4 (green): 49.8% Obama, 49.2% McCain. 61.6% White, 30.3% Black.
5 (orange): 70.3% McCain, 28.0% Obama. 86.4% White, 7.9% Black.
6 (purple): 61.9% McCain, 36.9% Obama. 76.5% White, 17.0% Black.
7 (lime green): 50.0% Obama, 48.9% McCain. 59.1% White, 36.1% Black.

Unbe[inks]inglievable

[ElectionsGuy]

2 Obama districts in Kansas:



1 (red): 49.4% Obama, 49.3% McCain
2 (blue): 50.6% Obama, 47.5% McCain
3 (yellow): 62.9% McCain, 35.1% Obama
4 (green): 67.7% McCain, 30.4% Obama

both of those districts probably went to Romney in 2012 and highly doubt you could make two 2012 Obama districts, only one.

[ElectionsGuy]

Nothing too extreme here, but a Colorado republican gerrymander 4-3.



Denver:



Red: 51.6% McCain, 46.6% Obama
Blue: 74.8% Obama, 23.6% McCain
Yellow: 64.9% Obama, 33.3% McCain
Green: 58.3% Obama, 40.0% McCain
Orange: 50.4% McCain, 48.2% Obama
Purple: 59.0% McCain, 39.3% Obama
Lime Green: 53.5% McCain, 45.0% Obama

I made that exact map a few months ago!

Oh, that's interesting. Are there any parts you did differently (like, drastically different)?

[ElectionsGuy]

I made that exact map a few months ago!

Oh, that's interesting. Are there any parts you did differently (like, drastically different)?

Nope, the exact same thing, nice Colorado map btw.

Thanks.

[ElectionsGuy]

It looks like you could regroup the green and purple districts to make it 5-2.

Oh yeah, I could've. Well its too late now as I deleted it and I don't feel like making another one.

[ElectionsGuy]

Texas!



Dallas/Fort Worth:



Houston:



San Antonio/Austin:



TX-1 (El Paso): 65.2% Obama, 34.8% McCain.
TX-2 (McAllen): 68.6% Obama, 31.4% McCain.
TX-3 (Brownsville): 64.4% Obama, 35.6% McCain.
TX-4 (Laredo): 69.0% Obama, 31.0% McCain.
TX-5 (San Antonio): 71.2% Obama, 28.8% McCain.
TX-6 (SA Suburbs): 57.4% McCain, 42.6% Obama.
TX-7 (Austin): 73.8% Obama, 26.2% McCain.
TX-8 (Austin Suburbs): 53.0% McCain, 47.0% Obama.
TX-9 (Waco): 58.3% McCain, 41.7% Obama.
TX-10 (South Houston): 77.1% Obama, 22.9% McCain.
TX-11 (North Houston): 77.7% Obama, 22.3% McCain.
TX-12 (SW Houston Suburbs): 68.7% Obama, 31.3% McCain.
TX-13 (West Houston): 60.7% McCain, 39.3% Obama.
TX-14 (East H Suburbs): 62.8% McCain, 37.2% Obama.
TX-15 (West H Suburbs): 66.8% McCain, 33.2% Obama.
TX-16 (Corpus Christi/South Central Texas): 64.0% McCain, 36.0% Obama.
TX-17 (A-SA-H Suburbs): 63.4% McCain, 36.6% Obama.
TX-18 (San Angelo/West SA): 62.9% McCain, 37.1% Obama.
TX-19 (South H Suburbs/Exurbs): 64.8% McCain, 35.2% Obama.
TX-20 (Beaumont/East H Exurbs): 58.8% McCain, 41.2% Obama.
TX-21 (College Station/East Texas): 69.5% McCain, 30.5% Obama.
TX-22 (North Houston Exurbs): 72.5% McCain. 27.5% Obama.
TX-23 (Dallas): 81.9% Obama, 18.1% McCain
TX-24 (Fort Worth/North Dallas): 69.3% Obama, 30.7% McCain
TX-25 (Central D/FW Suburbs): 54.3% McCain, 45.7% Obama
TX-26 (East Dallas Suburbs/Exurbs): 58.3% McCain, 41.7% Obama
TX-27 (North Dallas Suburbs): 55.0% McCain, 45.0% Obama.
TX-28 (West D/FW Exurbs): 64.6% McCain, 35.4% Obama.
TX-29 (North FW Suburbs): 66.1% McCain, 33.9% Obama.
TX-30 (Plano/Collin County): 62.8% McCain, 37.2% Obama.
TX-31 (Tyler): 71.4% McCain, 28.6% Obama.
TX-32 (NE Texas/Exurbs): 68.6% McCain, 31.4% Obama.
TX-33 (Amarillo/North Texas): 76.5% McCain, 23.5% Obama.
TX-34 (Abilene/Central Texas): 72.9% McCain, 27.1% Obama.
TX-35 (Lubbock/West Texas): 73.2% McCain, 26.8% Obama.
TX-36 (South D/FW Exurbs/Central Texas): 72.2% McCain, 27.8% Obama.

I saved this awhile ago and decided to bring it up. Its obviously a republican favored map, but I really didn't gerrymander it too hard (although 24th was pretty bad now that I look at it). Its 25-11 with basically all of them heavily leaning. No toss-ups.

[ElectionsGuy]

[ElectionsGuy]

North Carolina:



Close Up on "Research Triangle", Winston-Salem/Greensboro, and Charlotte.



Nothing special here. This is a republican-favored map, but I just wanted to make it much neater/nicer and more fair to the democrats than the one they have now, even if its still republican favored.

NC-1: 52.9% McCain, 45.8% Obama. Likely R
NC-2: 67.4% Obama, 31.9% McCain. Safe D
NC-3: 61.9% McCain, 37.2% Obama. Safe R
NC-4: 62.9% McCain, 35.7% Obama. Safe R
NC-5: 61.2% Obama, 38.0% McCain. Safe D
NC-6: 72.5% Obama, 26.6% McCain. Safe D
NC-7: 64.4% McCain, 34.6% Obama. Safe R
NC-8: 52.0% McCain, 47.0% Obama. Lean R
NC-9: 52.9% McCain, 46.4% Obama. Likely R
NC-10: 54.6% McCain, 44.6% Obama. Likely R
NC-11: 56.2% Obama, 43.1% McCain. Likely D
NC-12: 51.2% Obama, 48.0% McCain. Toss-Up
NC-13: 57.7% McCain, 41.5% Obama. Safe R

[ElectionsGuy]

Arizona Congressional:



Phoenix/Tucson Closeup:



Blue (Tuscon): 58.1% Obama, 40.7% McCain. 55.1% White, 34.8% Hispanic
Green (Inner Phoenix): 65.9% Obama, 32.9% McCain. 55.5% Hispanic, 29.7% White.
Purple (Chandler/Gilbert): 56.6% McCain, 42.4% Obama. 71.8% White, 15.2% Hispanic.
Red (Mesa/Scottsdale): 57.3% McCain, 41.5% Obama. 74.2% White, 16.9% Hispanic.
Yellow (Northern Phoenix): 55.7% McCain, 43.1% Obama. 72.6% White, 17.7% Hispanic.
Teal (Glendale/Peoria): 58.0% McCain, 41.0% Obama. 68.1% White, 21.8% Hispanic.
Gray (SW Arizona): 58.2% McCain, 40.8% Obama. 59.9% White, 32.8% Hispanic.
Slate Blue (SE Arizona): 58.9% McCain, 39.9% Obama. 64.9% White, 23.0% Hispanic.
Lime Green (Northern Arizona): 55.5% McCain, 43.1% Obama. 70.6% White, 15.7% Native, 10.6% Hispanic.

This is a neat little republican gerrymander. And the thing I like about it is that it looks like it was neatly constructed and not purposefully gerrymandered.

(Racial demographics are Voter Age Percentage, so they're much whiter than they actually are).

[ElectionsGuy]

It's a nice gerrymander, but I think it loses to the VRA. The actual map has two CDs at over 60% Hispanic (not VAP).

Meh, I'm pretty sure the Phoenix based district was over 60%, but definitely not any others. I don't usually think about any VRA districts when I do this, so oh well.

[ElectionsGuy]

Changed title to be more accurate.

I feel bad now. I should probably stop posting so much on this.

[ElectionsGuy]

In that case, I will do more maps

I thought I would do a 2 district plan for states that don't yet have 2 districts (3 electoral vote states) to kind of anticipate what the districts might look like.

Alaska:



Anchorage + Matsu Suburbs = Safe R. Adding the heavily republican suburbs to anchorage makes it secure for the republicans. The other district is 20% Native American (but still 66% white). Obama could've come close in in this district in 2012, but I suspect in most other years it should be in republican hands. Alaska won't have 2 districts for a long time though, and it needs to grow a lot to get there.

Delaware:



A good look at the north here. The New Castle/Wilminghton based district went 71-28 Obama in 2008, while the rest went 52-47 Obama. Its quite likely Romney won it actually (with his 56-43 win in Sussex County) so this could actually be considered Toss-Up or Lean R. A 4 electoral vote Delaware just could become realistic if it keeps growing as it is.

Vermont:



Nothing much to see here. Vermont currently has very little growth so 2 districts is not realistic at all, but if it did, both would be Safe D as they went 69-29 and 66-32 in 2008 (similar numbers in 2012).

South Dakota:



With the dakotas I decided to do a more east-west division of districts. The blue went 50-48 McCain and the green 57-41 McCain. But don't be fooled, 2008 Obama numbers in the Dakotas are laughable. Both of these are Likely/Safe R districts. South Dakota could get 4 electoral votes if it grows as fast as ND, but I suspect it won't happen for awhile if ever.

North Dakota:



This one definitely looks less skinny and awkward then the South Dakota one. The blue actually went 50-48 Obama in 2008, but again, don't be fooled. Its a Lean/Likely R seat. The rest went 59-39 McCain. Whats interesting is that North Dakota seems to have a much deeper political division of east-west than South Dakota. Anyway, even though North Dakota is the fastest growing state in the country, it needs a lot of growth to gain another EV. 

Wyoming:



Both these went 65-33 McCain and would be safe under almost any circumstance. More east-west division, one of these districts has Cheyenne, the other has Casper, and they're balanced politically too. Wyoming being the least populated state, its very unrealistic it will get another EV any time in the foreseeable future.

Montana:



Now 4 EV's is quite realistic in 2020 and could get one from RI (which will have 3 EV's for the first time in its history, btw) so I'm guessing they might do a plains/mountains division. This could result in a potentially gain able seat for the democrats in the west with Missoula, Helena, Butte, etc. But I think it leans republican, and I'm sure Romney won it even though Obama did in 2008 (even if I don't have numbers to back that up). Montana swung heavily against Obama in 2012. If I had to guess, I would say the east is 59-38 Romney and Safe R, and the west is 51-46 Romney and Lean R. Note that while the blue has lots of Gallatin County, it does not contain any part of the city of Bozeman.

[ElectionsGuy]

Sorry to butt in here, you don't have to count this or anything, but I did an 8-district South Carolina:



Blue: 63.3% McCain, 34.9% Obama = Safe R
Green: 62.2% McCain, 36.6% Obama = Safe R
Purple: 59.8% McCain, 38.8% Obama = Safe R
Red: 64.8% Obama, 34.3% McCain = Safe D
Yellow: 60.7% McCain, 38.1% Obama = Safe R
Teal: 55.6% Obama, 43.5% McCain = Likely D
Gray: 50.7% Obama, 48.1% McCain = Toss-Up
Slate Blue: 59.8% McCain, 39.0% Obama = Safe R

This sounds like a really fun series!

[ElectionsGuy]

6-District Utah

Blue: 60.4% Obama, 36.8% McCain = Lean/Likely D
Green: 53.5% McCain, 43.7% Obama = Likely R
Purple: 75.6% McCain, 21.3% Obama = Safe R
Red: 67.0% McCain, 30.3% Obama = Safe R
Yellow: 71.9% McCain, 24.8% Obama = Safe R
Teal: 72.8% McCain, 23.7% Obama = Safe R

OK, I'll be done until tomorrow.

[ElectionsGuy]

Oklahoma:



OK-1 (blue): 62.7% McCain, 37.3% Obama = Safe R
OK-2 (red): 65.8% McCain, 34.2% Obama = Safe R
OK-3 (purple): 70.0% McCain, 30.0% Obama = Safe R
OK-4 (yellow): 72.6% McCain, 27.4% Obama = Safe R
OK-5 (green): 56.1% McCain, 43.9% Obama = Likely R
OK-6(teal): 66.5% McCain, 33.5% Obama = Safe R

West Virginia:



WV-1 (blue): 54.8% McCain, 43.5% Obama = Likely R
WV-2 (green): 56.6% McCain, 41.7% Obama = Likely R

Note: Both of these are Safe R by 2012 standards, but in most cases they would be Likely R.

Arizona:



AZ-3 (purple): 53.0% McCain, 45.6% Obama = Likely R
AZ-4 (red): 59.3% McCain, 39.6% Obama = Safe R
AZ-12 (cornflower blue): 57.1% McCain, 41.8% Obama = Safe R
AZ-2 (green): 56.4% McCain, 42.4% Obama = Safe R



AZ-1 (blue): 63.6% Obama, 35.1% McCain = Safe D



AZ-5 (gold): 58.6% Obama, 40.4% McCain = Safe D
AZ-6 (teal): 63.8% Obama, 34.8% McCain = Safe D
AZ-7 (dark grey): 56.1% McCain, 43.0% Obama = Safe R
AZ-8 (slate blue): 60.9% McCain, 37.8% Obama = Safe R
AZ-9 (lime green): 53.8% McCain, 45.0% Obama = Likely R
AZ-10 (deep pink): 60.2% McCain, 38.7% Obama = Safe R
AZ-11 (yellow/green): 60.7% McCain, 38.1% Obama = Safe R

[ElectionsGuy]

Montana:



This is the one I used in a earlier post for states with 3 electoral votes currently anticipating 4 electoral votes.

MT-1 (blue): Obama 2008, Romney 2012. Lean R
MT-2 (green): McCain 2008, Romney 2012. Safe R

Kentucky:



KY-1 (blue): 58.8% McCain, 39.7% Obama = Safe R
KY-2 (green): 52.5% Obama, 46.4% McCain = Lean D
KY-3 (purple): 56.0% McCain, 42.6% Obama = Safe R
KY-4 (red): 69.4% McCain, 29.0% Obama = Safe R
KY-5 (yellow): 59.3% McCain, 39.1% Obama = Safe R

[ElectionsGuy]

Illinois:



IL-10: 53.3% Obama, 45.1% McCain = Lean D
IL-11: 50.4% Obama, 47.9% McCain = Lean R
IL-12: 49.3% McCain, 49.0% Obama = Likely R
IL-13: 49.2% McCain, 49.1% Obama = Likely R



IL-1: 82.6% Obama, 16.8% McCain = Safe D
IL-2: 88.1% Obama, 11.1% McCain = Safe D
IL-3: 84.5% Obama, 14.4% McCain = Safe D
IL-4: 75.3% Obama, 23.4% McCain = Safe D
IL-5: 58.9% Obama, 40.0% McCain = Likely D
IL-6: 55.2% Obama, 43.4% McCain = Lean D
IL-7: 54.2% Obama, 44.6% McCain = Lean D
IL-8: 57.1% Obama, 41.7% McCain = Lean D
IL-9: 55.2% Obama, 43.2% McCain = Lean D

I'm probably being a bit generous with my ratings as well. Obama numbers in the Midwest in general (except Minnesota and Iowa) are very misleading.

Iowa:



IA-1 (blue): 59.9% Obama, 38.6% McCain = Likely D
IA-2 (green): 51.4% McCain, 47.0% Obama = Likely R
IA-3 (purple): 54.6% Obama, 43.6% McCain = Lean D

[ElectionsGuy]

You need to adjust a lot to compensate for the 2008 numbers in IL. IL 6 in your map would perform better than Roskam's pre-2012 district, DuPage minus the northeast corner is safe R. Will plus Kendall in your IL-7 would be likely R (think Weller from the 2000's). With so much of McHenry. your IL-6 is probably toss-up to lean R. Your IL-9 would be well suited for someone like Manzullo and is likely R. Schock would be a lock in your IL-10, so it too would be likely R. The other downstate districts in that map (11-13) are all safe R.

Yeah, I thought I would underestimate. Realistically the R's have at least a good shot in 5-13.

[ElectionsGuy]

Massachusetts:



All districts are democratic-leaning. The only district that could possibly be in play for republicans is the 8th, where Obama *only* got 53.7%. There's a couple 56-ish% districts as well (2,5) but they would almost certainly go to the democrats. Every other one is safe.

[ElectionsGuy]

Oregon:



OR-3 (Purple): Lean D
OR-4 (Red): Likely D
OR-5 (Yellow): Likely R
OR-6 (Teal): Likely R



OR-1 (Blue): Safe D
OR-2 (Green): Likely D

[ElectionsGuy]

Washington:



WA-1: 50.6% McCain, 47.0% Obama = Lean R
WA-2: 51.4% Obama, 46.6% McCain = Lean D
WA-7: 59.2% McCain, 38.6% Obama = Safe R
WA-8: 55.7% Obama, 42.3% McCain = Likely D
WA-9: 50.4% McCain, 47.7% Obama = Lean R
WA-10: 57.2% Obama, 40.7% McCain = Likely D



WA-3: 84.6% Obama, 13.9% McCain = Safe D
WA-4: 64.3% Obama, 34.3% McCain = Safe D
WA-5: 60.7% Obama, 37.6% McCain = Safe D
WA-6: 59.9% Obama, 38.3% McCain = Safe D
WA-11: 57.5% Obama, 40.7% McCain = Likely D

Who wants to be the martyr and gerrymander California?

California is WAY too slow for me to even tolerate and there's no election results with a ridiculous amount of districts. Definitely not worth it.