Early 2016 Senate Ratings

[ElectionsGuy]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2016

Using this and the information I know, I'm going to rate the 2016 Senate races. These are obviously subject to change. This is the model:

State: Candidate (R/D), Status for re-election... Rating

Alabama: Richard Shelby (R), Running... Safe R
Alaska: Lisa Murkowski (R), Undecided... Likely R -->Safe R
Arizona: John McCain (R), Undecided... Lean R*
Arkansas: John Boozman (R), Undecided... Safe R
California: Barbara Boxer (D), Undecided... Safe D
Colorado: Michael Bennet (D), Undecided... Toss-Up -->Lean D
Connecticut: Richard Blumenthal (D), Undecided... Safe D
Florida: Marco Rubio (R), Undecided... Lean R
Georgia: Johnny Isakson (R), Undecided... Likely R
Hawaii: Brian Schatz? (D), Undecided... Safe D
Idaho: Mike Crapo (R), Undecided... Safe R
Illinois: Mark Kirk (R), Undecided... Toss-Up -->Lean D
Indiana: Dan Coats (R), Running... Likely R
Iowa: Chuck Grassely (R), Running... Likely R
Kansas: Jerry Moran (R), Undecided... Safe R
Kentucky: Rand Paul (R), Running... Safe R -->Safe/Likely R
Louisiana: David Vitter (R), Undecided... Safe R
Maryland: Barbara Mikulski (D), Undecided... Safe D
Missouri: Roy Blunt (R), Undecided... Likely R -->Lean R
Nevada: Harry Reid (D), Undecided... Toss-Up** -->Toss-Up/Lean D
New Hampshire: Kelly Ayotte (R), Undecided... Lean R
New York: Chuck Schumer (R), Undecided... Safe D
North Carolina: Richard Burr (R), Undecided... Lean R
North Dakota: John Hoeven (R), Undecided... Safe R
Ohio: Rob Portman (R), Undecided... Likely R
Oklahoma: Tom Coburn (R), Retiring... Safe R
Oregon: Ron Wyden (D), Undecided... Safe D
Pennsylvania: Pat Toomey (R), Undecided... Toss-Up
South Carolina: Tim Scott? (R), Undecided... Safe R
South Dakota: John Thune (R), Undecided... Safe R
Utah: Mike Lee (R), Undecided... Safe R
Vermont: Patrick Leahy (D), Undecided... Safe D
Washington: Patty Murray (D), Undecided... Likely D -->Safe D
Wisconsin: Ron Johnson (R), Running... Toss-Up

*Hinted at retirement, but Wiki article says "running" as mistake.
**Intends not to run for another term, but hasn't officially announced, agian, Wiki article says "running" as mistake.

Make your own list and feel free to criticize mine if you find something unreasonable or incorrect.

Changes I got from reading over lists in RED

[ElectionsGuy]

Kentucky: Rand Paul (R), Running... Safe R

He says he's running for reelection, yet he also says he's thinking about running for president, even though it's legally impossible for him to do both at the same time.  He hasn't exactly clarified how he plans to deal with that fact.

Yeah, quite confused by that. Could he cancel for file of re-election of Kentucky? If so, its Likely R without him, Safe R with him.

Colorado: Michael Bennet (D), Undecided... Toss-Up
New Hampshire: Kelly Ayotte (R), Undecided... Lean R

LOL no.

Washington: Patty Murray (D), Undecided... Likely D
Kentucky: Rand Paul (R), Running... Safe R
Missouri: Roy Blunt (R), Undecided... Likely R

Not LOL-worthy but also no

**Intends not to run for another term

Where did you get that from? Trust me, a Harry Reid retirement is any Democrat's wet dream but what tells you he "intends" not to run for another term and that the Wikipedia designation is a mistake like it is for McCain?

Colorado: Well, Bennett almost lost to a ridiculous tea partier in 2010, it was a wave year, but I'll probably change it to Lean D for now.

New Hampshire: Kelly Ayotte has a flat approval rating, in a state like New Hampshire that can accept both parties as long as they're decent, along with the fact that she's the incumbent, I think makes her have a slight advantage starting out.

Washington: Probably should be Safe D, I was thinking about here close race in 2010, but she was facing a really good opponent, I respect your decision to put it as Safe D.

Kentucky: Described above.

Missouri: Would Lean R be more appropriate, I realize Roy Blunt isn't the most popular figure on the street, but he's a republican incumbent in a (now) republican state, this should be Lean R at the most.

Nevada: http://atr.rollcall.com/nevada-harry-reid-to-retire-in-2016/. I got this from a source in the Wiki article. And yes, the little number [ ] that I click on goes to an article telling that he might retire or he intends not to run again. Yet it says "running" in the status, so yeah a mistake or perhaps they just don't have an option for hinting at retirement but not officially announcing like Tom Coburn, so they decided to put "running" in the status. I don't know what that's all about.

[ElectionsGuy]

Time to get real...

Alabama: Safe R
Alaska: Likely R
Arizona: Toss-Up
Arkansas: Likely R
California: Safe D
Colorado: Likely D
Connecticut: Likely D
Florida: Toss-Up
Georgia: Likely R
Hawaii: Safe D
Idaho: Safe R
Illinois: Toss-Up
Indiana: Likely R
Iowa: Lean R
Kansas: Safe R
Kentucky: Toss-Up
Louisiana: Likely R
Maryland: Safe D
Missouri: Toss-Up
Nevada: Toss-Up
New Hampshire: Toss-Up
New York: Safe D
North Carolina: Toss-Up
North Dakota: Safe R
Ohio: Likely R
Oklahoma: Safe R
Oregon: Safe D
Pennsylvania: Toss-Up
South Carolina: Safe R
South Dakota: Safe R
Utah: Safe R
Vermont: Safe D
Washington: Safe D
Wisconsin: Toss-Up

The only one here I have a problem with is Kentucky. How do you think democrats have a chance there? All the others are at least somewhat reasonable.

[ElectionsGuy]

Missouri: Would Lean R be more appropriate, I realize Roy Blunt isn't the most popular figure on the street, but he's a republican incumbent in a (now) republican state, this should be Lean R at the most.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jay_Nixon

Just because a democratic governor got elected doesn't mean this race is a potential pickup. Susana Martinez isn't going to block Tom Udall from sliding to victory in New Mexico is she? The right democrats can get elected in Missouri, but Blunt is the incumbent this time. The race is probably in his favor.

[ElectionsGuy]

Martinez has never indicated any interest in the Senate, while Nixon actually ran for the Senate once already in 1998, doesn't seem to be planning to exit politics soon, won't be that old in 2016, and would have the Democratic nomination sewed up if he wants it, leading many to conclude that he is a possible 2016 Senate candidate.

So that's what he meant. Has he shown any signs or interest in running for the Senate again? Even if he did, I would still give Blunt a slight head start.

[ElectionsGuy]

Oh, I remember this thread. Thanks for bumping, I kind of want to do an update now (not that anything has changed, but whatever). These are all assuming that current speculated candidates don't run against incumbents, and that the incumbent doesn't retire (unless they've already said so).

Alabama: Safe R
Alaska: Safe R
Arizona: Lean R (Assuming John McCain retires)
Arkansas: Safe R
California: Safe D
Colorado: Lean D
Connecticut: Safe D
Florida: Lean R
Georgia: Likely R
Hawaii: Safe D
Idaho: Safe R
Illinois: Toss-Up
Indiana: Safe R (Assuming Bayh doesn't run)
Iowa: Likely R (Assuming Grassely runs again)
Kansas: Safe R
Kentucky: Likely R
Louisiana: Safe R
Maryland: Safe D
Missouri: Likely R (Assuming Nixon doesn't run)
Nevada: Lean D (Assuming Sandoval doesn't run)
New Hampshire: Lean R
New York: Safe D
North Carolina: Lean R
North Dakota: Safe R
Ohio: Likely R
Oklahoma: Safe R
Oregon: Safe D
Pennsylvania: Toss-Up
South Carolina: Safe R
South Dakota: Safe R
Utah: Safe R (Assuming Matheson doesn't run)
Vermont: Safe D
Washington: Safe D
Wisconsin: Toss-Up
Wyoming: Safe R

[ElectionsGuy]

Ohio - Tossup

Um... no.

I think your also underrating Ayotte and Rubio. They should at least start with some advantage now that they're incumbents. Their approvals are constant and there in states that go either way

South Carolina - Safe R (I'd personally like to see Scott retire just since the GOP will use him to show how open they are to African American rights)

Why would he retire? He's young and just got in the Senate. Who cares about the fact that he's black.

I'll give you credit on a decent Kentucky rating though. Different from the good amount of dems who think Kentucky is a "toss-up", which is just unthinkable.