A winning Scenario for Wendy Davis-TX Governor's Race (user search)
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  A winning Scenario for Wendy Davis-TX Governor's Race (search mode)
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Author Topic: A winning Scenario for Wendy Davis-TX Governor's Race  (Read 7052 times)
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
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Posts: 21,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

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« on: October 04, 2013, 06:28:45 AM »

What would a winning map look like assuming Wendy Davis pulls off a huge poltiical upset and narrowly defeats Greg Abbott?

She would have to do really well in South Texas, as well as do much better in urban areas, which is possible. And also MUCH better in suburbia, which is what I think makes this mission impossible.


What area's of the state would her support come from to hit 50%?

Pretty much any counties than Romney got <60% of the vote. A lot of counties in the Austin area, as well as many counties in Western (Mexico Border West) Texas. As well as Tarrant County, which is the key to winning elections in Texas.


Tarrant County and the areas surrounding Austin.

Where do democrats need to canvass in order to pull this long shot off?

They absolutely need to get >30% of the white vote at least, which I don't see happening. They also need to do much better in the Houston suburbs. Not win them, but do better, right now they're incredibly republican.
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ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #1 on: November 14, 2013, 08:57:24 PM »

A Texas Tribune poll has Davis down by around 6 points depending on how well the Libertarian candidate is polling. 6 points is not a bad place to be a year out, of course I have my doubts that she will win, but I believe she will lose with the closest margin since 1994. I believe this will turn into a tighter race then Texas is use to seeing.

6 points is actually the best poll for Davis I've seen so far. PPP has her down 15 against Abbott. So I'm very skeptical of this 'close race' stuff.
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