Safe GOP Solid GOP Likely GOP Leans GOP Barely GOP
Utah Kentucky West Virginia Montana Virginia
Wyoming South Dakota Louisiana Indiana Florida
Idaho Texas South Carolina Georgia Ohio
Oklahoma Arkansas Tennessee North Carolina
Nebraska Mississippi Arizona Missouri
Alaska
Alabama
Kansas
North Dakota
Safe Dem Solid Dem Likely Dem Leans Dem Barely Dem
D.C. Maryland Delaware Oregon New Mexico
Hawaii Connecticut Illinois Michigan New Hampshire
Rhode Island California New Jersey Minnesota Wisconsin
Vermont Maine Pennsylvania Iowa
Massachusetts Washington
New York
Toss Up
Colorado 9
Nevada 6
What elections are we basing this off of? and should I do 5 categories of each party like you do?
Yes you can do 5 categories. Some people do 3 or 4 for each party. I based it off of the averages for the 4 most recent elections in combination with some of the more noticeable trends.
Since Bush's elections are almost irrelevant now when it comes to state trends, I will average 2008-2012 trends and put them into 5 categories. Completely based off numbers and no Toss-ups for most situations. After 2008-2012 I will do 2000-2012 and 2012 alone.
R/D+20.0% or more = Safe
R/D+15.0%-19.9% = Solid
R/D+10.0%-14.9% = Likely
R/D+5.0%-9.9% = Lean
R/D+0.1%-4.9% = Barely
R/D+0.0% = Toss-Up
Safe R: AL, AK, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, NE, OK, TN, UT, WV, WY
Solid R: MS, ND, SC, SD, TX
Likely R: AZ, GA, IN, MO, MT
Lean R: NC
Barely R: FL, OH, VA
Safe D: DC, HI, MD, NY, RI, VT
Solid D: CA, DE, IL, MA
Likely D: CT, ME, NJ, WA
Lean D: MI, NM, OR
Barely D: CO, IA, MN, NV, NH, PA, WI
Now 2000-2012 State Averages (slightly irrelevant, but still fun to do)
Safe R: AL, AK, ID, KS, KY, NE, ND, OK, TX, UT, WY
Solid R: AR, LA, MS, MT, SC, SD, TN
Likely R: AZ, GA, IN
Lean R: MO, NC
Barely R: CO, FL, OH, VA
Safe D: DC, HI, MA, NY, RI, VT
Solid D: MD
Likely D: CA, CT, DE, IL, NJ
Lean D: ME, MI, OR, WA
Barely D: IA, MN, NV, NH, NM, PA, WI
And now 2012 exclusively... (the most relevant)
Safe R: AL, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, NE, ND, OK, SD, TN, UT, WV, WY
Solid R: AK, MS, MT, TX
Likely R: AZ, GA, IN, MO, SC
Lean R: NC
Barely R: FL, OH
Toss-Up: VA
Safe D: DC, HI, MD, NY, RI, VT
Solid D: CA, MA
Likely D: CT, DE, IL, ME, NJ, WA
Lean D: MI, NM, OR
Barely D: CO, IA, MN, NV, NH, PA, WI
Note: Virginia was so close to the popular vote that I would consider it a true toss-up.
