Utah's Future

[ElectionsGuy]

In excel, I have a chart of all the state trends compared to the nation as a whole going back all the way to 1984 and realized that the most partisan margin ever was Utah in 2012 (besides D.C.), being a whopping 52 points more conservative than the nation. I realize that there were probably bigger margins than this back in the days of the solid south, but Utah is one of the fastest growing states in the nation and it is the farthest thing from a swing state.

Every year Mormon % goes down as a portion of the population. Could the reddest state in the nation actually go democratic in an election eventually? Right now its a safe bet that it will keep voting republican for at least 20 years, with how far right it is at the moment. Hispanic population is a factor too, but it's only 13% Hispanic which is pretty low considering it borders Arizona, Nevada, and Colorado. If the state keeps growing, could the state trend democratic?

[ElectionsGuy]

It will likely trend Democratic due to demographic changes, but it will probably still be a few decades before it's competitive.  It has a lot of trending to do.

That's assuming the parties stay as there are today, which they won't. But Utah will probably always be more conservative than most other states because the mormons there have a way of rubbing off on the people who move there.

Actually, I think that most of the people that move to Utah were already conservative before moving there. The conservative climate generally attracts conservative voters. There some exceptions to this. People who move to Salt Lake City, such as me, as well as a few other select parts of the state can be fairly liberal, but in most parts of the state (especially the suburbs) the people that move there are quite conservative.

That is true, and also why Utah hasn't seemed to go anywhere in the past 30 years or so, this is speaking about the far future of the state. 62% of the state leans republican alone, about the % of vote John McCain got in 2008, so that number will have to reduce to about 45% for a democrat to win in a presidential election.

[ElectionsGuy]

It will likely trend Democratic due to demographic changes, but it will probably still be a few decades before it's competitive.  It has a lot of trending to do.

I meant many decades.  Utah will probably trend Democratic only because it's virtually the only way for such a Republican state to trend, kind of like Vermont having little room to trend further left.  Obviously, that does not mean much for actual competitiveness. 

Yes, of course not. That's what I meant too, although Utah always seems to be at least 20 points more conservative than the country and its gotten more partisan over years, if anything this is a great thing for conservatives that this is one of the fastest growing states.

[ElectionsGuy]

Utah is 52 points more conservative than the nation? You sure?

Yes, Mitt Romney won Utah by 48.1% (72.8% to 24.7%), add that with the fact that Obama won the nation by 3.9%, and Utah is R+52.0% when compared to the nation.

[ElectionsGuy]

Utah is 52 points more conservative than the nation? You sure?

Yes, Mitt Romney won Utah by 48.1% (72.8% to 24.7%), add that with the fact that Obama won the nation by 3.9%, and Utah is R+52.0% when compared to the nation.

Well by PVI Utah is around R+22.

Actually in 2012 PVI of Utah was R+25.6. PVI is generally about half of the margin compared to the nation.