Ultra Vulnerable Mark Kirk 2016: Is he Toast?

[ElectionsGuy]

In 2010, republican Mark Kirk from Illinois, a popular moderate, ran against a horrible opponent in a year republicans clearly had edge. He won all but 4 counties in his state (Cook, St. Clair, Jackson and Alexander) and won the race by 1.6%. Will he seek re-election in 2016, a presidential year where Hillary Clinton has a chance of being on the ballot? If so what are his chances of him being re-elected in a strong D state? Predictions on general election?

[ElectionsGuy]

Ahh, beaten to the punch by Sawx.

But yeah pretty much that. At the moment there are no major candidates that could jump in and wreak havoc, like Russ Feingold very well may do with Johnson in WI. Since it's such a Democratic state, I'll put this as a Lean D state, but Kirk is a moderate and hasn't done much to anger the electorate.

Yeah, he really has done things for his state and been moderate, after all he was on of the few R's to vote for background checks.

[ElectionsGuy]

Ahh, beaten to the punch by Sawx.

But yeah pretty much that. At the moment there are no major candidates that could jump in and wreak havoc, like Russ Feingold very well may do with Johnson in WI. Since it's such a Democratic state, I'll put this as a Lean D state, but Kirk is a moderate and hasn't done much to anger the electorate.

Yeah, he really has done things for his state and been moderate, after all he was on of the few R's to vote for background checks.

He's also pro-gay marriage and pro-immigration reform. It's a shame he's in Illinois because he's one of the few Republicans I'm sad to see become vulnerable.

Good for him, unfortunately when it comes 2016 it'll be Chicago vs. Rest of State just like 2010.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'd rate his chances of reelection considerably lower, around 35%.  Because 2016 is a Presidential year he is going to have to significantly overperform his party's presidential nominee.  And he going to get many questions about areas of agreement and/or disagreement with the GOP presidential nominee's platform.  This is not an easy tightrope to walk as Scott Brown can tell you.  Perhaps Kirk will have a more appropriate answer if asked who his model Supreme Court Justice is.

I don't write off his chances entirely because of the tendency of Illinois Democrats to f**k up. Maybe they will put up another craptastic candidate.  I have to wonder, however, if Giannoulias would have won if the election had been in 2012 instead of 2010.

I can see why Krazen is so desperately insistent that Lisa Madigan will not run for Senate.  Because if she does and Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee, I think Kirk is a Dead Man Walking.

Giannoulias (hopefully I spelled that right) would have definitely won if it was 2012, remember that Obama brought out Black turnout to outstanding levels and 2010 was a year when white turnout was outstanding and Young/Liberal turnout was dismal.

According to this exit poll, black turnout was better in 2010 than in 2012... hmm

2010:

White (69%) 64% Kirk, 31% Giannoulias
Black (20%) 94% Giannoulias, 3% Kirk
Hispanic (8%) 63% Giannoulias, 27% Kirk

2012:

White (70%) 52% Romney, 46% Obama
Black (14%) 96% Obama, 4% Romney
Hispanic (12%) 81% Obama, 18% Romney

It wasn't even so much minority turnout, it was that white vote went overwhelmingly for Kirk, that's what needs to happen again. Not to mention better Hispanic % which also needs to be the case. Black turnout in these exit polls is fishy however.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'd rate his chances of reelection considerably lower, around 35%.  Because 2016 is a Presidential year he is going to have to significantly overperform his party's presidential nominee.  And he going to get many questions about areas of agreement and/or disagreement with the GOP presidential nominee's platform.  This is not an easy tightrope to walk as Scott Brown can tell you.  Perhaps Kirk will have a more appropriate answer if asked who his model Supreme Court Justice is.

I don't write off his chances entirely because of the tendency of Illinois Democrats to f**k up. Maybe they will put up another craptastic candidate.  I have to wonder, however, if Giannoulias would have won if the election had been in 2012 instead of 2010.

I can see why Krazen is so desperately insistent that Lisa Madigan will not run for Senate.  Because if she does and Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee, I think Kirk is a Dead Man Walking.

Giannoulias (hopefully I spelled that right) would have definitely won if it was 2012, remember that Obama brought out Black turnout to outstanding levels and 2010 was a year when white turnout was outstanding and Young/Liberal turnout was dismal.

According to this exit poll, black turnout was better in 2010 than in 2012... hmm

2010:

White (69%) 64% Kirk, 31% Giannoulias
Black (20%) 94% Giannoulias, 3% Kirk
Hispanic (8%) 63% Giannoulias, 27% Kirk

2012:

White (70%) 52% Romney, 46% Obama
Black (14%) 96% Obama, 4% Romney
Hispanic (12%) 81% Obama, 18% Romney

It wasn't even so much minority turnout, it was that white vote went overwhelmingly for Kirk, that's what needs to happen again. Not to mention better Hispanic % which also needs to be the case. Black turnout in these exit polls is fishy however.

Interesting, thanks.  In fairness Illinois is Obama's home state so one could argue that the Democratic coattails may be less daunting in 2016. 

Illinois was one of the states where Romney massively improved from McCain. Do you think it could improve even more? 2008 was an obvious anomaly in Illinois, but if it improves even more, the white vote has to do better for the republican candidate, and there's definitely room for improvement since white vote in the Midwest isn't exactly solidly republican. Hispanic vote can also be improved but the state still won't be winnable in a normal election. According to the 2012 election, a republican will need 394 electoral votes to win Illinois with current trends.

[ElectionsGuy]

Can't Obama come back and run? Does he want to?

Most Former Presidents are usually done with politics after their presidency, I'm not even sure if he could, but if he did it would be unprecedented.

[ElectionsGuy]

Can't Obama come back and run? Does he want to?

Most Former Presidents are usually done with politics after their presidency, I'm not even sure if he could, but if he did it would be unprecedented.

I'm sure it's legal. I thought Andrew Johnson did it.

Maybe he could, he's still young for a politician. I doubt it though.