Nate Silver: "**** you, we did a good job"

[emailking]

Absolutely he did. Many said he was "wrong" when he said Trump would lose in 2016, despite giving him a 30% chance to win. By that logic, since Biden won, he was absolutely correct to give him a 90% chance to win.

The snake states that were wrong had >30% chance of going the other way but it doesn't matter. If you judge based on the result, as many did last time, then he called the election exactly correct!

[emailking]

Absolutely he did. Many said he was "wrong" when he said Trump would lose in 2016, despite giving him a 30% chance to win. By that logic, since Biden won, he was absolutely correct to give him a 90% chance to win.

The snake states that were wrong had >30% chance of going the other way but it doesn't matter. If you judge based on the result, as many did last time, then he called the election exactly correct!

There's a 100% chance you understand 0% about probabilities.

I use both probability and stats daily. I've said many times Silver's model cannot be either right or wrong. But many decide to judge the model as either right or wrong anyway. If it got 2016 wrong (it didn't), then it got 2020 right (it didn't). Happy?

[emailking]

Trump had neither a 30% chance in 2016 nor a 10% chance this year, objective speaking. That's why his model was wrong. Pure and simple.

EVEN IF it was correct on those toplines, the way he arrived at the result he did is hideous malpractice to say the least. If that's not evident to you, I'm not sure what about this fact and reality could make it clearer.

Absolutely he did. Many said he was "wrong" when he said Trump would lose in 2016, despite giving him a 30% chance to win. By that logic, since Biden won, he was absolutely correct to give him a 90% chance to win.

The snake states that were wrong had >30% chance of going the other way but it doesn't matter. If you judge based on the result, as many did last time, then he called the election exactly correct!

There's a 100% chance you understand 0% about probabilities.

I use both probability and stats daily. I've said many times Silver's model cannot be either right or wrong. But many decide to judge the model as either right or wrong anyway. If it got 2016 wrong (it didn't), then it got 2020 right (it didn't). Happy?

No, it got both wrong.

Many said he was "wrong" when he said Trump would lose in 2016, despite giving him a 30% chance to win.

Who said this? I certainly haven't.

The snake states that were wrong had >30% chance of going the other way but it doesn't matter.

It's not hard to call >90% of states correctly. All you need to do is rip off an "expert" map or even steal the average of polling. That's not genius or foresh**t, that's amateur level or worse (which in fairness we've come to expect from Silver by now)

If you judge based on the result, as many did last time, then he called the election exactly correct!

Wtf is this "judgment" you're passing right now, bro

I don't remember names, sorry.