FL (Susquehanna): Trump +5 (user search)
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  FL (Susquehanna): Trump +5 (search mode)
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Author Topic: FL (Susquehanna): Trump +5  (Read 2993 times)
emailking
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« on: October 27, 2020, 12:24:58 PM »
Quote from: TML on October 27, 2020, 12:20:19 PM
As a general rule, be skeptical of any FL poll which shows either candidate leading by more than 2 points.

That doesn't make any sense. Being ahead by 5 is within the margin of error of being ahead by 2. Even if we could agree the margin is restricted within 4 points, there will regularly be polls outside of that range just statistically.
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emailking
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« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2020, 07:08:37 PM »
Quote from: TML on October 27, 2020, 01:16:02 PM
Quote from: emailking on October 27, 2020, 12:24:58 PM
Quote from: TML on October 27, 2020, 12:20:19 PM
As a general rule, be skeptical of any FL poll which shows either candidate leading by more than 2 points.

That doesn't make any sense. Being ahead by 5 is within the margin of error of being ahead by 2. Even if we could agree the margin is restricted within 4 points, there will regularly be polls outside of that range just statistically.

Most statewide races in FL during the 2010s were decided by less than 2 points. This means that FL is mostly immune to national trends.

It doesn't mean they're immune to swings and it doesn't mean you should distrust a poll that's consistent with the 2 point margin you're expecting.
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