CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[emailking]

Guess we're getting results at 11. Could have sworn this closed at midnight in '03. Called at close too.

[emailking]

Yeah the problem is the party can't nominate anyone for this. It's just a free-for-all.

[emailking]

It seems like many on here are confident that this means Democrats will retain the House next year. It would not be wise to make that assumption.

Odds are still against it.

[emailking]

lol Newsom only needs like 5% of the outstanding vote to win.

[emailking]

Statistically there have to be some No/Elder voters, I wonder who they are.

Do you have to vote on the first question to vote on the 2nd though?

[emailking]

Statistically there have to be some No/Elder voters, I wonder who they are.

Do you have to vote on the first question to vote on the 2nd though?

Anyway, if there are some, they're probably Republican leaning indies who are against the recall on principle.

[emailking]

A possible preview of the new Fox Election Desk as they haven't called the race yet.

That's a shame. I honestly respected them for having the guts to make that AZ call last year, and Murdoch for sticking by it despite calls from a hysterical Trump. Caving to the mob is pathetic even by their standards. Looks like whatever shred of journalistic integrity Fox had left might be gone.

They were clearly premature in making that call, though.  Even though the end result ended up being right, there is absolutely no way that they expected it to be a 10,000 vote margin.  Their decision desk head even said that they were calling it because they expected Trump to get only 44% of the remaining vote (and Biden was already leading at that time by around 8 points, so they expected Biden's lead of 8 points to increase).

They expected the lead to increase but the point was that Trump gaining enough to overcome Biden's lead was outside of the 99.5% confidence interval. Trump gaining was not.

[emailking]

Maybe, but their benchmark was clearly flawed so the 99.5% threshold was irrelevant in this case.  They didn't account for the fact that the remaining mail/early votes were late-arriving and were thus more similar to election day than to the rest of the early vote.

That's the part you don't know though. It's not clearly flawed because Trump got close. We don't know what their 99.5% confidence interval was so we don't know if it's irrelevant or not. Trump getting within 10,000 votes could have been inside of it while Trump winning might not have been.

[emailking]

Newsom was basically saved by no one challenging him on the Dem side.

That was the point.

[emailking]

He was right that it was a decent chance at the point of that post, but I disagree that not running a dem was a bad strategy.