Brazil General Discussion 2019: It's Slammer Time!

[buritobr]

I believe Bolsonaro will be re-elected. I know that politics in Brazil aren't the same as politics in the USA, but we live in the darkest timeline. Say bye-bye to any serious efforts to tackle climate change succeeding, or COVID ending.

The probability of his reelection is low but not zero. It is possible. All the adults will receive the vaccine shots until October 2021. Probably, the pandemic will not be the most important issue in 2022. His administration is a catastrophe, but since the output is lower than the potential output, there is some iddle capacity, and so, some growth is possible to happen in 2022. China is recovering, and so, the price of the soybean and of the sugar is increasing again, and this is good (in the short term) for the Brazilian economy.
Besides, the 200th aniversary of the Brazilian independence will take place on September 7th 2022. The first round of the election will take place on October 2nd 2022. This is an advantage for the incumbent. I learned in this forum that Geral Ford benefited from the 200th aniversary of the US in 1976. He was much behind Carter, but he could close the gap after the 4th of July.

[buritobr]

Good news

Ricardo Salles, the Ministry of Environment who hates the environment resigned. He was found in a scandal related to the permission of the exports of wood collected through a ilegal way in the Amazon Forest.

[buritobr]

https://www.twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1408020715975106563?ref_src=twsrc%5E...

Marcelo Freixo now being polled with his new party PSB, instead of PSOL.

This same poll shows that Lula is leading the vote for president in Rio de Janeiro. He is polling better than Bolsonaro.

[buritobr]

In 2018, PSOL had 2.85% of the vote for the House. This is enough to have federal funding.

However, PSOL should take care to keep (or to increase this vote). The party lost Jean Wyllys and Marcelo Freixo. They need to use other stars to attract more votes. In Rio de Janeiro, Chico Alencar and Tarsício Motta should run for the House. In São Paulo, 2 representatives already attract votes: Sâmia Bonfim and Ivan Valente.

[buritobr]

For those who understand this slang: Bolsonaro's potato is baking
The inquiry in the Senate was created in order to investigate the mismanagement of the pandemic. Now, it was found possibility of corruption in the purchase of Indian vaccine Covaxin.

Well, all the mismanagement of the pandemic was much worse than a simple corruption scandal. 500K people died, maybe twice as much if the pandemic were better managed. But the discovery of a possible corruption scandal makes the situation of Bolsonaro worse.

[buritobr]

For those who understand this slang: Bolsonaro's potato is baking
The inquiry in the Senate was created in order to investigate the mismanagement of the pandemic. Now, it was found possibility of corruption in the purchase of Indian vaccine Covaxin.

Well, all the mismanagement of the pandemic was much worse than a simple corruption scandal. 500K people died, maybe twice as much if the pandemic were better managed. But the discovery of a possible corruption scandal makes the situation of Bolsonaro worse.

Today was the end of his government. The COVID investigation comittee was on fire and it was revealed that Bolsonaro knew that the leader of his government in congress was involved with schemes that were taking away public money used for the response to the pandemic. Bolsonaro did nothing even though he knew this was happening.

Luís Miranda, congressman who denounced this conversation, had to go through 7 hours of inquiry before finally giving away the name of the person Bolsonaro talked about in the conversation he had with him. It was Ricardo Barros, leader of Bolsonaro government in congress. Luís Miranda was super scared to give that detail but he eventually did in the very end. I hope he receives lots of protection in order to not be “suicided”.

It’s over. Finally over. Idk if impeachment will happen or not, but Bolsonaro government is over even if he stays until the end of 2022. It will be a zombie government like Dilma’s 2nd term was in 2015-2016, one that she had no power at all. And that’s IF he is lucky enough to be there for one more year.

Maybe it is too early to celebrate. When minister of Justice Sergio Moro resigned in April 2020 because Jair Bolsonaro wanted to change the director of the Federal Police in Rio de Janeiro in order to protect his son, many people believed it was the end of Bolsonaro.
But, of course, his reelection is becoming even harder. Even if Bolsonaro finishes the term, there is the possibility of he stays out of the runoff in 2022 if there were only one candidate of the left and one candidate of the traditional right, so that the votes are not split.

[buritobr]

Representatives, most of them from left-wing parties but also some from right-wing parties, sent a request for the start of a Bolsonaro's impeachment trial for the president of the House Artur Lira. There were many requests to start an impeachment trial, but this one summarizes all cases of misconduct done by Bolsonaro. However, Artur Lira will ignore this request. He has the power to start the impeachment trial, but he won't do it because he is Bolsonaro's ally. Probably, he will do something only if Bolsonaro's situation becomes not sustainable.

[buritobr]

Eduardo Leite is the first state governor to be open gay. Good news he admitted. I don't have a positive view on him. In the runoff in 2018, he considered Bolsonaro the lesser of the evils. Jair Bolsonaro is homophobic. Fernando Haddad tried to introduce anti LGBT discrimination lessons at school when he was minister of education during Lula's administration. But well, this is diversity in politics: there are politicians we like and politicians we don't like who are members of minorities.

Most of the Brazilians are not prejudiced about homosexuality, but few politicians admitt in public they are homosexuals and few politicians try to introduce anti-discrimination lessons at schools because the evangelicals are well organized and they are swing voters.

[buritobr]

The were big protests against Bolsonaro again in many Brasilian cities on July 3rd https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-57709301

I went to the demonstration in downtown Rio de Janeiro. Eveybody was wearing masks and avoiding to get to close one from another. I went there walking, in order to avoid the subway. "Only" 5km from my home.

[buritobr]

Datafolha polls, president 2022

If Joao Doria runs
Lula 46%, Bolsonaro 25%, Ciro Gomes 8%, Doria 5%, Mandetta 4%

If Eduardo Leite runs
Lula 46%, Bolsonaro 25%, Ciro Gomes 9%, Leite 3%

Runoff
Lula 58%, Bolsonaro 31%

[buritobr]

Bolsonaro is not only a horrible person, he is very dumb. It is possible to be a horrible person and not be dumb.

It would be very easy to have a good image in the english speaking press, like Economist, Financial Times, Wall Street Journal and Forbes. In the group of the 3 biggest Latin American GDPs, Mexico and Argentina have left-wing governments. Only Brazil has a (very) right-wing government. This business media loves to find a "good example" in Latin American: a government which implements a neoliberal agenda. Besides, Mexico and Argentina are not doing well in the economy, they have not managed very well the pandemic. But Bolsonaro looses this opportunity. He is able to do everything worse, even when his competitors are not doing very well.

[buritobr]

Today, finally I got my first dose of AstraZeneca.

Until now, 42% of the Brazilian population received at least the first dose of a Covid vaccine.

[buritobr]

Poder Data 360 Poll July 19-21

Bolsonaro's administration evaluation
26% good/very good
15% regular
56% bad/very bad

Results are almost the same of two weeks ago

[buritobr]

Again, lots of people went to the streets in many Brazilian cities in order to demand the impeachment of Jair Bolsonaro. I went to the protest downtown Rio de Janeiro.
There are a lot of impeachment requests. The proceeding starts only if the president of the House Arthur Lira accepts. But now, Lira is a Bolsonaro's ally. Besides it is necessary 2/3 of the votes in both houses, it means, 342 in the House (there are 513 representatives) and 54 in the Senate (there are 81 senators). That's why, the pressure in the streets is necessary
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/24/out-bolsonaro-more-brazil-protests-over-covid-crisis

[buritobr]

Instituto Ranking Poll, Rio de Janeiro state, July 18-22

Governor: Marcelo Freixo 24.3%, Martha Rocha 14.0%, Claudio Castro 12.2%

President: Lula 34.1%, Jair Bolsonaro 31.4%, others ~15%

https://www.diariodocentrodomundo.com.br/essencial/marcelo-freixo-lidera-pesquisa-de-intencao-de-voto-para-o-governo-do-rio-de-janeiro/
https://www.diariodocentrodomundo.com.br/essencial/lula-venceria-no-rio-casa-de-bolsonaro-diz-pesquisa/

[buritobr]

Jair Bolsonaro had a meeting with AfD representative Beatrix von Storch. Her grandfather was minister of finance in the Third Reich.
Before this meeting, Storch met Jair's son Eduardo Bolsonaro and PSL representative Bia Kicis.

[buritobr]

One hot debate topic in Brazil in the last weekend was the protest on the statue of Borba Gato in São Paulo. The protesters set fire on the statue.
Borba Gato was an explorer who lived in the 17th century. He traveled to the Brazilian countryside in order to look for gold. In his trips, he killed lots of natives and enslaved many of them.
The demonstrators considered that public statues of people like him glorify colonization, racism, slavery and genocide. The opponents of the protest consider that Borba Gato was very important to develop Brazilian territory considering that during his time most of the non-native population was concentrated in the coast and that one can not judge a person who lived in the 17th century according to the values of the 20th century.
There were also the ones who considered that the demonstrators should have proposed the legislative branch of São Paulo to discuss a proposal to remove the statue, instead of trying to burn the statue.
Despite the attempt of the protesters, very little damage was caused on the statue.

[buritobr]

According to the 2010 Census, 47.7% of the brazilians self declared whites. Some of these whites look like European, like Gisele Bundchen. Many people from the south have italian or german ancestry. Some other whites have distant african or indigenous ancestry but doesn't look like if we just see their face. Some other whites have distant african or indigenous ancestry and would not be considered "white" bu European or North American standards. Soccer player Neymar and former soccer player Ronaldo used to consider themselves "white".
A new census was scheduled for 2020, but due to the pandemic, the census will take place in 2022. The most recent survey concerning Brazilian population is PNAD 2019. PNAD is a survey conducted more often than the Census, and unlike Census, is done by sample and not the whole population. According to PNAD 2019, 42.7% of the brazilians are white, 46.8% mulato, 9.4% black and 1.1% asian or indigenous. The highest share of whites took place in the 1950 Census, when 60% of the population declared themselves "white". There was a big European immigration in the late 19th century and early 20th century. Since 1950, the share of whites has been declining because non-whites have more children, and because there is a increasing share of 3/4 white 1/4 black people declaring themselves mulato and not white. There is a increasing perception that racism is not acceptable, and so, non-whites don't have shame anymore to declare themselves non-white.
The estimated Brazilian population now is 210M. So, there are ~90M whites in Brazil. This is the world's third largest white population in absolute numbers, after only USA and Russia. It is bigger than the German population, which is 83M. However, as I told, many of these 90M whites in Brazil are not as white as Germans.
If you consider that mulatos are black, Brazil has the world's second largest black population in absolute numbers, after only Nigeria.

[buritobr]

Atlas Poll (I believe Atlas is the most reliable poll) July 2021

Rating of Bolsonaro's administration
Good/Very good: 26%
Regular: 15%
Bad/Very bad: 59%

1st round 2022
Lula 39.1%
Jair Bolsonaro 35.9%
Ciro Gomes 6.2%

Runoff
Lula 49.2%
Jair Bolsonaro 38.1%

Full data here
https://cdn.atlasintel.org/700ce09d-f532-403e-b86c-0d2ec9bd9177.pdf

[buritobr]

The House didn't approve the Amendment to introduce mandatory printed vote. 308 votes are necessary to approve an Amendment (3/¢ of the House). The proposal had only 229. Brazilian elections will keep all electronic.
Bolsonaro supported the introduction of the printed vote. But it doesn't matter for him. He wants no more than reduce the credibility of the election if he looses. He supported Trump's voter fraud claims. The Trump's voter fraud claims were related to paper ballots sent by mail.

[buritobr]

Has impeachment lost its luster, then (especially since Bolsonaro got 229 votes for his signature proposal)?

Sure. 2/3 of the House is necessary for the impeachment: it means 342. Or: 171 votes are necessary to avoid the impeachment. We could see that Bolsonaro has safe 229 votes.
If there are no extraordinary facts, there is no impeachment.

[buritobr]

Bolsonaro is not the easiest opponent of PT. The incumbent has always advantage.

Besides, Bolsonaro does well in the group of evangelicals who live in poor neighborhoods in metro areas. Many of them voted for Lula, Dilma and Bolsonaro (they are like the american white working class who voted for Obama and Trump).
If a PT candidate runs against a PSDB or DEM candidate, this group can go back to PT.

[buritobr]

State level polls for 2022

Espírito Santo (Orizzonte, August 13)
Jair Bolsonaro 34.9%, Lula 34.3%, Ciro Gomes 4.6%
in 2018
2nd round: Jair Bolsonaro 63.1%, Fernando Haddad 36.9%
1st round: Jair Bolsonaro 54.8%, Fernando Haddad 24.2%, Ciro Gomes 9.5%

Acre (Big Data, August 7)
Jair Bolsonaro 43%, Lula 27%, Ciro Gomes 7%
2nd round: Bolsonaro 45%, Lula 31%
in 2018
2nd round: Jair Bolsonaro 77.2%, Fernando Haddad 22.8%
1st round: Jair Bolsonaro 62.2%, Fernando Haddad 18.5%, Ciro Gomes 5.2%

Rio Grande do Sul (Ranking, August
Jair Bolsonaro 28.00%, Lula 26.05%, Eduardo Leite 17.10%
2nd round: Lula 42.3%, Bolsonaro 38.5%
in 2018
2nd round: Jair Bolsonaro 63.2%, Fernando Haddad 36.8%
1st round: Jair Bolsonaro 52.6%, Fernando Haddad 22.8%, Ciro Gomes 11.4%

Bahia (Paraná Pesquisas, August 7)
Lula 47.1%, Jair Bolsonaro 23.7%, Ciro Gomes 8.7%
in 2018
2nd round: Fernando Haddad 72.7%, Jair Bolsonaro 27.3%
1st round: Fernando Haddad 60.3%, Jair Bolsonaro 23.4%, Ciro Gomes 9.4%

Rio Grande do Norte (Perfil, August 6)
Lula 49.84%, Jair Bolsonaro 20.50%, Ciro Gomes 5.25%
in 2018
2nd round: Fernando Haddad 63.4%, Jair Bolsonaro 36.6%
1st round: Fernando Haddad 41.2%, Jair Bolsonaro 30.2%, Ciro Gomes 22.3%

Piauí (Estimativa, August 10)
Lula 63.65%, Jair Bolsonaro 16.45%, Ciro Gomes 7.00%
in 2018
2nd round: Fernando Haddad 77.0%, Jair Bolsonaro 23;0%
1st round: Fernando Haddad 63.4%, Jair Bolsonaro 18.8%, Ciro Gomes 11.4%

[buritobr]

Former president Fernando Henrique Cardoso endorsed São Paulo governor João Doria in the PSDB primary, which will take place early 2022. The biggest competitor is Rio Grande do Sul governor Eduardo Leite.

[buritobr]

Today, Brazil overtook the USA in the share of the population who received at least 1 shot of the anti-covid19 vaccine. Now, 61% of the Brazilians received at least one shot.
The number of anti-vaxxers in Brazil is much lower than in some high income countries.
The vaccination in Brazil was slow due to the scarcity of doses and not due to anti-vaxxers. Much more than 61% of the people who had the opportunity to take one shot have done it. Many cities are starting to offer shots to under 18 year old people only today.
The share of the population who took the 2 shots in Brazil is still low because the interval between the 2 AstraZeneca shots in Brazil has 12 weeks.