buritobr
YaBB God
Posts: 3,721
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« on: January 04, 2014, 03:01:31 PM » |
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Why was Bush Jr leading Al Gore in the summer before the election? The economy was still going fairly Strong, and Clinton was still pretty popular.
Well, when a party tries to return to the power after 8 years, it is usual this party start leading and the incumbente party increase in the final days. Maybe the voters think "I want change" and in the few days before the election "oh, I am not sure".
Humphrey closed the gap in the final month in 1968. Carter was leading by double digits in 1976 and Ford closed the gap. As it was mentioned, Bush not only closed the gap in 1988, but widened the gap in his favor after that. Bush Jr was leading in the popular vote in the summer of 2000. Obama had a 10 point margin over McCain before the election.
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