The Great Brazil Topic

[buritobr]

Dilma Rousseff was invited to the Olympics Opening Cerimony. Officially, she is still the president. The former presidents will be invited too. I don't know if she will attend or not. It would be a contest against Michel Temer for the worst answer of the audience. Considering the social class of the audience, due to the prices of the tickets, problably the audience would be more hostile to Dilma Rousseff than to Michel Temer.

[buritobr]

For non-Brazilians who follow this thread:

They could ask: how could a vice president be so different of a president? How could the government become opposition and the opposition become government after an impeachment?

Well, Brazilian Congress has more than 20 parties, due to the open list proportional representation system. No party has more than 20% of the seats. Every president needs more than 50% of support in order to approve new laws. So, it is necessary to build coalitions.
Brazil has a presidential system, like most of the countries in the American Continent. Elections for president and for the Congress are held at the same time, but they are independent one from each other. There is a split in the vote for president and for the Congress. The Workers Party (PT) had a lock in the "Palácio do Planalto". The right has a lock in the Congress. Lula was elected in 2002 and 2006. Dilma was elected in 2010 and in 2014. But the PT never had more than 20% of the seats of the Congress. The sum of the leftist parties, PT, Communist Party (PCdoB), Party of the Socialism and Liberty (PSOL) and Democratic Labor Party (PDT), never reached more than 25% of the seats (besides, PSOL was the "let wing opposition"). So, Lula and Dilma needed the support of center-right parties in order to have a majority.
There are two kind of center-right parties: the ideology driven parties and the oligarchs' parties. The ideology driven center-right parties are PSDB and DEM. They were always opposition against Lula and Dilma. Most of the PSDB/DEM voters belong to the urban middle/upper class. The oligarchs' parties are PMDB, PP, PSD, PRB, PR and PRB. They are called "centrão" (big center), because they also endorse governments, no matter if the head of the executive branch belongs to the PT or to the PMDB. Most of the voters of the "centrão" parties are the rural poor.

Mexicans will understand in an easier way: PT is like the PRD, PSDB is like the PAN and PMDB is like the PRI

Lula and Dilma needed the support of the parties of the "centrão" in order to build a coalition. But this support has a cost. In 2010, PMDB accepted to support Dilma only if this party was able to nominate Dilma's VP. And then, PMDB chose Michel Temer. The Dilma Rousseff/Michel Temer ticket was repeated in 2014. PT had another gain in accepting PMDB nominating the VP. In Brazilian elections, time for advertising at the television is allocated according to the proportion of the seats each candidate's party has in the Congress. Since PMDB has the biggest number of tickets, by accepting the PMDB nominating the VP, PT earned more time for advertising for Dilma at the television. In the other side, PMDB could nominate some ministers in Lula/Dilma administration.
Well, the coalition PT/PMDB was not very clean. They deviated 5% of the payments from the state owned oil cimpany to building contractors in order to use in the election campaigns. Many PT and PMDB politicians were benefited.

Part of the Petrobras scandal was dicovered by the Federal Police before the 2014 elections, but most of the scandal was discovered after the elections. Dilma won a narrow runoff against PSDB candidate Aécio Neves. But PT lost seats in the legislative election. Dilma's supporting base became smaller.
Besides the Petrobras scandal, there was the economic crisis. That's why, Dilma's approval rate soon after the new innauguration fell to the single digit. Then, the parties of the "centrão", including PMDB, stopped supporting Dilma's admistration. They joined the opposition parties PSDB and DEM and had together more than 2/3 of the seats, enough to aprove Dilma's impeachment.
Michel Temer became the temporary president after the Chamber approved the impeachment. Now, the Senate is discussing the impeachment. The final vote will take place soon after the Olympics. Problably, more than 2/3 of the senators will vote for the impeachment, and Michel Temer will become the president until December 2018.
Dilma lost the presidency because she lost people's support and because she lost the support of the Congress. But according to Brazilian constitution, the Congress cannot remove a president, unless the president has committed a crime. So, the Congress needed to find a crime that Dilma committed. There was no proof of the direct participation of Dilma Rousseff in the Petrobras scandal. So, they found another "crime": mismanagement of the budget, a "crime" that most of the previous presidents and state governos committed. It was an excuse to impeach a president that lost the support of the Congress.
Michel Temer became the temporary president, invited some PSDB and DEM politicians to become ministers and is implementing policies that Aécio Neves would implemente if he had won the election. That's why the PT supporters consider Dilma's impeachment a "coup d'stat".
Big street demonstrations helped the impeachment. Many middle/upper class people, who voted for Aécio Neves in 2014, went to the streets, wearing yellow shirts, asking "Dilma out". The "libertarian" movement was there. Former Dilma's voters didn't go to the pro-impeachment demonstrations, but most of them didn't go to the anti-impeachment demonstrations too. The anti-impeachment demonstrations were much smaller than the pro-impeachment demonstrations. Most of the Dilma's voters became dissapointed with her. They didn't join the ones who wanted to remove her from the Palácio do Planalto. But they didn't make effort to hold her there.
The pro-impeachment movement was very hypocrite. They used "send the corrupt back home" slogans in order to criticize PT for the Petrobras scandal. But they accept a PMDB administration, a party that participated in the Petrobras scandal too. The difference is not related to corruption: PMDB accepts to implement the agenda that the pro-impeachment movement supports, and the PT no.

The business sector supported the impeachment because it considered that Michel Temer would implemente policies that would be very unpopular during elections: increase the flexibility of the labor markets, reduce the taxes (by reducing the spending in education and health) and increase the minimum age for retirement. A non-elected government could implemente these policies easier.

[buritobr]

If someone in the audience shows messages like "Fora Temer" (Temer out) inside the venues of the Olympics, the police is removing.
There were cases of people who had to leave the stadiums.

... democracy!

[buritobr]

Since the end of Figueiredo's term in 1985, Michel Temer is the most right-wing president. He is on the right of José Sarney, Fernando Collor, Itamar Franco, Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Lula da Silva and Dilma Rousseff.

[buritobr]

Dilma Rousseff is answering the questions of the senators. The final vote will take place tomorrow or Wednesday.

[buritobr]

There were anti-Temer demonstrations in many state capitals this evening. Most of them were peaceful. In São Paulo, there were some clashes with the riot police.

Here are the pictures I have taken from the demonstration downtown Rio de Janeiro
http://www.trincheiras.com.br/2016/08/fotos-da-manifestacao-anti-temer-no-centro-do-rio-de-janeiro/

[buritobr]

How are Collor's and Dilma's impeachment similar?
Both can be considered "parliamentary coups". The Congress removed these presidents from the office only because the Congress did not like these presidents. This is not acceptable in a presidential republic like Brazil. The Congress behaved as if we live in a parliamentary republic, but we don't live in a parliamentary republic. Minor offenses were used as excuses to use the impeachment law, in order to make the impeachment look like legal. Almost all the leftist parties supported the Collor's impeachment. Almost all the rightist parties, which supported Collor's election, supported his impeachment too. Leonel Brizola was the sole leftist politician who did not support Collor's impeachment. He though that the leftist parties were committing a big mistake, because one day a leftist president would be target of an impeachment process. The Congress has always conservative majorities. Brizola died in 2004. He did not have time to see his prediction becoming reality.

How are Collor's and Dilma's impeachment different?
As I wrote in other thread, Collor's VP Itamar Franco just waited the vote, and only after that he buit his cabinet. Michel Temer bargained the votes for the impeachment. He offered ministries for the parties whose Congressmen voted yes.
Itamar Franco followed Collor's policies. He did not try to implement Lula's program (Lula was the losing candidate in 1989, when Collor was elected). Michel Temer wants to implement Aécio Neves' program, the program of the losing candidate. That's why the leftists are very angry.

[buritobr]

For the Americans who read this thread, imagine the following situation, an analogy for Dilma's impeachment:

Consider that the USA has a Democratic president and a Republican strong majority in both houses of the Congress. The vice president is a conservative Democrat who has close ties to Republican leaders. The Democratic president accepted this ticket in the election in order to have centrist votes. There is an economic crisis. The president wants to increase taxes in order to reduce the budget deficits. The Congress wants to cut spending in welfare. No agreement is reached. Then, the Congress finds a minor mistake commited by the president as an excuse to impeach him. The conservative Democrat VP becomes the president and appoints top Republican leaders to be secretaries. He leads a conservative administration supported by the Republicans in the Congress. Since the USA is a more serious country, I don't believe this situation could happen there.

[buritobr]

There were demonstrations in many state capitals calling for Michel Temer's resignation and new presidential election.
In São Paulo, there were 100.000 demonstrators. After a peaceful rally, the riot police started the violence.

[buritobr]

Brazilian picture Aquarius will not run to be Academy Awards nominee in foreign language movie.
A commission created by the Ministry of Culture is in charge of choosing the picture to run for the Academy Awards nominee. The cast of Aquarius made a protest against Dilma's impeachment in Cannes in may. Temer's ministry of culture Marcelo Calero chose, Petrucelli, a right-wing journalist to be in charge of this commission. Petrucelli wrote colums criticizing Aquarius's cast.
After 10 days in the movie theaters in Brazil, Aquarius had an audience of 200K. This is a lot according to Brazilian standards. We live in a country where most of the population is poor and don't go to the movie theater often. The picture choosen by the Ministry of Culture is not in the Brazilian movie theaters yet.
It is clear that the veto of the Picture Aquarius was a political avengement committed by Temer's Ministry of Culture.

Aquarius trailer
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VB-5rodvHUc

[buritobr]

I'm sorry Brazil is turning into another Poland.

Sure.
Brazil became a far conservative island like Poland, Hungary, Colombia, Honduras, Uganda and Israel.
Colombia is getting better, Brazil is getting worse.

[buritobr]

Far right groups have already scheduled a pro-Trump rally which will take place on October 29th, at downtown São Paulo. They will rally against Hillary Clinton, the "American Dilma".

[buritobr]

In a dialogue in a Brazilian soap opera in 1998, a rich couple was discussing at the dinner table. The wife was defending the strengh of the women.
When the couple was talking about Bill Clinton's sexual scandal, they started discussing Hillary's role.
The lady told at 3:00
"One day, Hillary Clinton will be candidate and she will be the first US female president"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TOOErHobcr0

[buritobr]

Temer's potato is being baked

[buritobr]

The Senate approved a constitutional amendment that forbids the federal government to increase its spending in real values for the next 20 years.
The authors of this proposal declared that the goal is to eliminate the budget deficit. Considering that the economy will recover, the stagnated spending and the increasing revenue will eliminate the deficit. But probably, the deficit will be eliminated in the next 5 years. This amendment is valid for 20 years. So, after these 5 years, we will have increasing surpluses... or tax cuts.
The real goal of this amendment is using the people's panic about the deficit and crisis in order to slash the welfare state, in order to create a "small government".

[buritobr]

Judge of Supreme Court Teori Zavascki died in a plane crash.
He was in charge of the "Lava Jato"
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-38685289

[buritobr]

Lula's wife Marisa Leticia, former first lady, passed away. She had a stroke.

[buritobr]

Michel Temer picked the minister of Justice Alexandre de Moraes to the Supreme Court, in order to replace Teori Zavascki.
Alexandre de Moraes is conservative and he is a close political ally of Michel Temer. The Supreme Court might be in charge to judge members of Temer's administration due to corruption acusations.

[buritobr]

MDA poll for the presidential election of October 2018

Scenario 1
Luís Inácio Lula da Silva 30.5%
Marina Silva 11.8%
Jair Bolsonaro 11.3%
Aécio Neves 10.1%
Ciro Gomes 5%

Scenario 2
Luís Inácio Lula da Silva 31.8%
Marina Silva 12.1%
Jair Bolsonaro 11.7%
Geraldo Alckmin 9.1%
Ciro Gomes 5.3%

Runoff

Luís Inácio Lula da Silva 39.7%
Aécio Neves 27.5%

Luís Inácio Lula da Silva 38.9%
Marina Silva 27.4%

MDA made no runoff scenario between Lula and the far right leader Jair Bolsonaro


Temer's job
24.4% approve
62.4% disapprove

44.1% bad/very bad

[buritobr]

So, Lula is unbeatable...

Is he that popular or just the least bad of all?

Least bad

Lula was very popular during his term. Then, he became unpopular after the corruption scandals found during the Lava Jato (2014-2016) and after the economic crisis during Dilma's administration. The Workers Party had several defeats in the 2016 municipal elections.

But now, Lava Jato is showing that there are many leaders from the PMDB and PSDB in the corruption scandals too. The Federal Police and the attorney could not find evidence that Lula had personal benefit from the corruption. It is widely known that there was corruption in his administration in order to keep a supporting base in the Congress and in order to give money to the electoral campaigns of the Workers Party (PT). But Lula didn't become rich because of the corruption.
The economy is going bad even after nine months of Temer's administration. People think: there was corruption in Lula's administration, but our lives were getting better, and now our lives are getting worse.

[buritobr]

Given the widespread corruption in all parties, is there a chance we could see new parties (stuff like 5SM, Podemos, C's etc) become popular and enter congress?

Yes.
PSOL is the Brazilian version of Podemos, Linke and Syriza. It has 6 congressmen. The 2014 presidential candidate Luciana Genro had 1.5%, but in the 2016 municipal elections, the candidate for mayor of Rio de Janeiro Marcelo Freixo had 18% in the first round, went to the runoff and had 40%.

No new parties are needed because there are more than 10 parties in the Brazilian congresso. But there are lots of strange politicians who rose after the distrust in mainstream politics. The comedian Tiririca was the congressmen who had the biggest number of votes. The mayor of São Paulo João Doria is from the PSDB, a big party, but he doesn't belong to the mainstream of PSDB. He is a kind of Donald Trump, who joined the party as an outsider.

[buritobr]

For the ones who can read Portuguese
http://www.trincheiras.com.br/2017/02/qual-e-o-bairro-mais-esquerdista-do-rio-de-janeiro-qual-e-o-bairro-mais-direitista/

An analysis of the results by borough from Rio de Janeiro of the runoff of the 2014 presidential election and the results of the runoff of the 2016 municipal election.

In the runoff of the 2014 presidential election, Dilma Rousseff had 51% and Aécio Neves had 49% in the city of Rio de Janeiro. Dilma Rousseff, supported by left-wing parties, did better in low income boroughs, and Aécio Neves, supported by right-wing parties, did better in high income boroughs.

In the runoff of the 2016 municipal election, Marcelo Crivella had 59% and Marcelo Freixo had 41%. Unlike what happenned in 2014, in 2016, the polarization was inverted. Marcelo Freixo, supported by left-wing parties, did better in high income boroughs, and Marcelo Crivella, supported by right-wing parties, did better in low income boroughs.

The text presents the results of both elections in every borough. The text shows that, although both Dilma and Freixo are leftists, the correlation of their votes according to the boroughs is negative (or: although both Aécio and Crivella are rightists, the correlation of their votes according to the boroughs is negative).

Though the calculation of the average of the elections of 2014 and 2016, it was possible to rank all the boroughs of Rio de Janeiro, from the most left-wing to the most right-wing.

[buritobr]

Brazil Conference, na event organized by the Harvard University and the MIT, will take place in Cambridge, Massachusetts, in April 7th and 8th.
http://www.brazilconference.org/2017/pt/home_br/
Famous left-wing and right-wing Brazilians will speak.
The list of lecturers include former president Dilma Rousseff, former candidate Marina Silva, Supreme Court judges Gilmar Mendes and Luís Roberto Barroso, former left-wing senator Eduardo Suplicy, far right philosopher Olavo de Carvalho, former mayor of São Paulo Fernando Haddad and businessman Paulo Leman.

[buritobr]

Today, there was a big strike against the pension reform, the labor market reform and the austerity plan.
I was in the rally at downtown Rio de Janeiro. There was some few "black bloc", but most of the demonstrators were peaceful: teachers, students, public emplyees, workers, retired people. The riot police was very violent. We could smell lots of tear gas.

[buritobr]

Lula was sentenced in a very low court. Since he was sentenced less than 20 years, he will be allowed to appeal free. He will be judged by a higher court. Only if he is sentenced for the second time, he will go to the prision and he will be not able to run. But the election will take place in October 2018. Usually, a higher court take one and a half year. Probably the trial will not be ready in August 2018, when the campaign starts, and so he will problably be able to run.
Sergio Moro, the judge who sentenced Lula today, has close ties to the PSDB, Lula's first enemy. The evidence that Lula owned a flat gave as a gift by a building contractor is very weak. Problably, Lula will receive a smaller sentence by a higher court.

Problably Lula will be allowed to run. But since he was sentenced, his image becomes very bad. I think it will be better if the center-left candidate is Ciro Gomes or Fernando Haddad.