Early 2016 Base Map

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I eliminated "Tossups" entirely from the equation. This map assumes no blowout victory.

New Jersey is only "Likely" with Christie, otherwise it's "Solid".

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Just for fun, I compiled all of these maps together and mentally estimated the averages of all the different base maps everyone made:

Looks about right, doesn't it?

While making it, when I saw people putting Maine District 2 as a solid Democratic seat, and at the same time putting Maine District 1 as a weaker Democratic seat, I swapped them, as District 2, is, incidentally, the more Republican one. I just assumed that the people who put District 1 as the more Republican one simply didn't know and didn't bother finding out.

I used a 50% to 90% scale for both sides of the spectrum, as I find the 30% pinks and light blues unaesthetic.

233 - Democrat
206 - Republican
99 - Tossup

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If New Hampshire and Iowa are tossups, wouldn't Wisconsin be as well?

Wisconsin is just slightly more democratic than those two. So it could be a toss-up but would probably be barely leaning.

Yep, It was on the threshold between Democratic leaning and toss-up.

The consensus is divided between whether it's short but sudden Republican trend will continue, or if it was just a fluke and and it will continue to be a weak Democratic state. I compromised and put it in as lean a Democratic category as I possibly could.

It also helps to differentiate it from the other toss-ups. Wisconsin is more Democratic than Iowa and New Hampshire, and certainly more so than, say, Ohio.

Nevada, Wisconsin, and North Carolina, the weakest non toss-up states on the map, could probably be considered "swing states" by some standards, but they all clearly lean a certain direction.