"Our Senate" Senate 2006 ratings Arizona to Wyoming

[No more McShame]

My take:

AZ: Solid GOP - even if Kyl is nominated to the Supreme Court the Dems have no depth here outside of Gov Napolitano or AG Goddard.  Phoenix Mayor Gordon has promise, but it's not his time quite yet.

CA: Solid Dem - Feinstein is very popular here.

CT: Solid Dem - Fern is right about Lieberman being more vulnerable in a primary than in the general.  Neither is likely.

DE: Solid Dem

FL: Slight Lean Dem - Nelson isn't unpopular but isn't popular either.  This will be a test to see if Fla is really shifting to the GOP.

HI: Solid Dem 

IN: Solid GOP 

ME: Solid GOP - Maine likes their mavericks.

MA: Solid Dem-  Mass likes their Kennedys.

MD: Strong Lean Dem- Depends on primary results.  Mfume vs Steele could be interesting.  Cardin should win if Van Hollen stays out.

MI: Strong Lean Dem- Stabenow is beatable but nobody on the GOP side who could do the trick is stepping up.

MN: Toss-up- Will be the most interesting race of the year.

MS: Solid GOP

MO: Strong Lean GOP - Talent is beatable but it would take a Dem landslide to do it.

MT: Lean GOP - Burns ratings aren't the highest, but incumbency does have it's advantages.

NE: Strong Lean Dem - Unless Heinman runs, I don't see Nelson losing.  A Dem is never truely safe here though.

NV: Solid GOP

NJ: Toss-up:  Kean would be a strong Republican candidate, but Dems are always tough here.  This is assuming Corzine wins the governor's seat which is not guaranteed.  I'll stay the middle here until I see some data.

NM: Solid Dem-  Wilson will wait for an open seat to run.

NY: Solid Dem- Unless Giuliani runs which is unlikely.

ND: Solid Dem or Toss-up depending if Gov. Hoeven runs.

OH: Strong Lean GOP-  DeWine isn't hugely popular with the base but there's not enough discontent to throw him out in the primary.  Should win general fairly easily.

PA: Slight lean Dem-  Casey has the momentum right now, but it's too early to count Santorum out.  This will be an interesting one to watch unfold.

RI: Strong Lean GOP-  Chafee looks strong in all the polling I've seen.  Like Nebraska, a Republican is never truely safe here but there dosn't seem to be a lot of discontent to throw him out.

TN: Strong Lean GOP-  Open seats are usually interesting, but Ford would have a tough hill to climb here in an increasingly Republican state.  Having his uncle in the news won't help a whole lot either.

TX: Solid GOP

UT: Solid GOP

VT: Strong Lean Ind-  Sanders should have an easy time here.  I don't see the Democrats shooting themselves in the foot by giving a lot of support to one of their own.

VA: Solid GOP - With Warner out Allen will win easy.

WA: Strong Lean Dem-  Another beatable candidate.  For some strange reason Murray is more popular than Cantwell.  I've never figured that one out.  However, the WAGOP doesn't seem to have it together enough to field a credible candidate.

WV: Solid Dem unless Byrd shocks us all by not running.  Then I'll put it as a tossup until I see who emerges.  I wouldn't go as far as to say he's unbeatable, but I sure don't see it happening.

WI: Solid Dem-  Tommy Thompson could give Kohl a run for his money but he's unlikely to run.

WY: Solid GOP

[No more McShame]

GOP lean if he does not.

Despite the WV GOP having only 1 semi-credible candidate?

One candidate is all it takes