Bayh's numbers in Indiana look great...

[No more McShame]

Top Bayh winning strategy: The states Gore officially won + Indiana
A weird strategy: IN + OH + Kerry states - NH - OR (all the remaining non-great lakes states were won by Kerry by at least 6.68 points).

Sounds good, though I believe the probability of the Democrats losing Oregon in the next few elections is exceedingly low.

It's always scary when I agree woth opebo, but for the Republicans to have a chance in Oregon they would have to nominate a Giuliani or someone in that vein.  I'm sorry, despite what polls are saying, those type of Republicans will not have a prayer of winning the nomination once the field starts to thin out.  The only Republican who could survive the primary that Oregon MIGHT vote for is McCain (and I don't think he's even going to run).

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Nominating Bayh after nominating Kerry would NOT lose Oregon. If anything, Bayh would improve in Oregon. Ask yourself who Oregonians are more likely to choose: a liberal from Massachusetts or a center-leftist from Indiana? In an instant, Oregon would choose the letter - in fact, Bayh is the kind of politician who would appeal to Oregon - sort of a populist morals, libertarian policy fellow. Portland, as well as the western side as a whole, would eat that up.

No, Bayh would not lose Oregon (unless Sen. Gordon Smith is the Republican nominee, right).  Portland and Eugene would certainly prefer Kerry and a liberal 3rd party would do well in those places.  He wouldn't lose Multnomah and Lane counties by any stretch but wouldn't get the proportion that Kerry received.  Bayh would own Washington County (W. Portland suburbs), as it's fiscally center-right and socially liberal.  The rest of the state tends to vote Republican, but, other than Clackamas County (where I grew up and the more conservative S. Portland suburbs) there are no areas that could come even close to matching the population of those three counties.  Unless the Republicans nominate someone from the more libertarian wing of the party, they can kiss Washington County and thus the state goodbye.

[No more McShame]

Nominating Bayh after nominating Kerry would NOT lose Oregon. If anything, Bayh would improve in Oregon. Ask yourself who Oregonians are more likely to choose: a liberal from Massachusetts or a center-leftist from Indiana? In an instant, Oregon would choose the letter - in fact, Bayh is the kind of politician who would appeal to Oregon - sort of a populist morals, libertarian policy fellow. Portland, as well as the western side as a whole, would eat that up.

No, Bayh would not lose Oregon (unless Sen. Gordon Smith is the Republican nominee, right).  Portland and Eugene would certainly prefer Kerry and a liberal 3rd party would do well in those places.  He wouldn't lose Multnomah and Lane counties by any stretch but wouldn't get the proportion that Kerry received.  Bayh would own Washington County (W. Portland suburbs), as it's fiscally center-right and socially liberal.  The rest of the state tends to vote Republican, but, other than Clackamas County (where I grew up and the more conservative S. Portland suburbs) there are no areas that could come even close to matching the population of those three counties.  Unless the Republicans nominate someone from the more libertarian wing of the party, they can kiss Washington County and thus the state goodbye.

Absolutely. I do think Bayh would do better in the south Portland suburbs and flip the important Clackamas County, which Kerry barely lost anyway. Marion County would probably be closer, although I doubt Bayh would flip it. How do you think he'd play in Linn County (Albany) and Jackson County (Medford/Ashland)?

Clackamas is pretty conservate, it would depend on who the Republican nominee is if Bayh could flip it.  Unless it's changed since I've been there I don't see it.  Bayh would lose both Lynn and Jackson counties fairly handily, but do better than Kerry did.

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Clackamus County can't be that conservative, can it? It only voted Bush 50-49.

Well, it was 6 years ago when I was last there.  There has been a lot of growth there.  Anyhoo, it's still MUCH more conservative than Washington County.  I would look for more long term trends than the 2004 election to determine if it has grown more liberal in the last six years.