Election Night Predctions

[No more McShame]

Bush: 306 EV 2000 -NH, +NM, MN, WI, & IO

Kerry: 232 EV +NH, -NM, MN, WI, & IO

Senate: Repubs pick up: GA, SC, NC, FL, SD, & LA (in runoff)

              Dems pick up: IL, OK (upset special), & AK

              All else stays with same party.

    Net gain of 3 for Republicans

House: Repubs pick up one seat.

Please Discuss .

[No more McShame]

What is IO? (I think you mean IA for Iowa.)

You left out Colorado in your Senate analysis.  I can understand why, it is a hard race to call.

I would say that overall the Dems have a better chance to pick up CO than OK, though I personally think the Reps will hold onto both of the them.  The CO GOTV among Reps is underestimated and has always been so.  Carson overplayed his hand and even though no one in DC(including Rep big-wigs in Congress) wants Coburn in, Coburn's strength among Indys is something that has always been underestimated.

Vitter's chances of avoiding a runoff are getting stronger every day (I place it at about 35-40% now).  John has run too far to the right and the black base is leaning towards Kennedy now.  The question is, will any of these factors be enough?  Hard to tell right now.

Good catch.  Bush wins Iowa (IA).  :-)     I left out CO becuase I believe Coors will hold the seat for Republicans.  By a whisker.  The state votes GOP when it gets down to it.  Allard was underpolling two years ago as well.  I haven't seen enough numbers to show Vitter avoiding a run-off, polls are going in that direction.  Hard to tell.  Could change in five days .  There I copped out.

[No more McShame]

Bush wins 296 to 242:

copycat :-).  I only have MN going to the President.  How do you post maps?