FL/OH/PA: Quinnipiac: None of us are swing states

[J. J.]

Quinnipiac is a very good poll in some states, but not in any of these three.

[J. J.]

Quinnipiac is a very good poll in some states, but not in any of these three.

What states are they good in then?I remember hearing in '06 during the senate and governors races how Quinnipiac was the best in PA. Are you saying this because its a result you don't like?

No, Tokar, it's because Q isn't hugely accurate outside of NY, New England, and is fair in NJ.

Q begins to have problems outside of the area; it's a uni poll after that.

[J. J.]

Quinnipiac is a very good poll in some states, but not in any of these three.

What states are they good in then?I remember hearing in '06 during the senate and governors races how Quinnipiac was the best in PA. Are you saying this because its a result you don't like?

No, Tokar, it's because Q isn't hugely accurate outside of NY, New England, and is fair in NJ.

Q begins to have problems outside of the area; it's a uni poll after that.

Accuracy...what type of accuracy.

Accuracy in margin?  What pollster is accurate enough to be considered "trusted"?  This is why, when a pollster DOES get the margin right, they have a coming out party, with press releases, pat-on-the-back ceremonies, blah blah blah.  If pollsters routinely got the margin of victory right you wouldn't see this kind of crap and we wouldn't have 20 or more polling outlets.
Accuracy in trend?  Pollsters are very reliable when it comes to trends.  I've gone through this with you before, and I showed you that Quinnipiac has a very good history when it comes to trends.

No, in this case Q isn't accurate either way outside of that NY/New England area, where they usually poll.  It isn't particularly good at showing trends either.

A poll is basically suppose to be a snapshot of the electorate.  Sometimes they show trends, especially trackers, but usually they don't.  That is the reason I look to tracking polls for trends.

[J. J.]

Polling has failed epically this year.

States, is the Republican turnout still holding in the early voting?

[J. J.]

Polling has failed epically this year.

States, is the Republican turnout still holding in the early voting?

Not sure. I do know however that I've never seen so much McCain gear in my life as I'm seeing right now. I know it's only anecdotal evidence but literally the sign/bumper sticker count is up to 25:1 around here.

GOP turnout was leading by about 8-9% as of today.

[J. J.]

Actually, Tokar, Q was 6 points off for Casey in 2006 and about 7.5 off the margin.  Muhlenburg, their general poll, was more off actually with the same gap as Zogby.

Keystone (which I thing is F & M) came closest.

[J. J.]

Let's let Tokar have his pro-Obama numbers. 

Considering they are in line with the rest of pollsters, I will take them.

Actually, the rest of pollsters have shown a decline for Obama in PA.  Some of them are well out of the MOE.