Black Monday...

[J. J.]

There is the "the crisis has passed" effect.  The market responds to uncertainty.  If it's a done deal. in might not be the bloodbath.

[J. J.]

It's actually looking at better outside of the DJIA, though I'm glad I only have $200 in Sovereign.

[J. J.]

Listen, Duke & Duke totally collapsed back in 1983 when Dan Aykroyd and Eddie Murphy received an advance copy of the orange crop report.  If Wall Street could survive that, it can survive this.

Just watched it yesterday, use to work in the area (Viv worked in the coffee shop in the Rittenhouse Park scene) and was across the street from Duke and Duke Saturday for dinner with Sissy.

[J. J.]

The Dow is now down -315 as of noon.

That's not too good...

Before we get too chicken little, that wouldn't even classify as the biggest one-day drop this month.

Which says a lot about overall instability this month.

What percentage drop is it?.  In 1982 a 100 point drop would be a catastrophe; today it's a sneeze, at worst.

[J. J.]

A bit simplistic to blame this on "Bush's policies," don't you think?

Yeah, I was just a bit frustrated by J.J. obviously not realizing how globalized the world already is.
The crash affects Germany big time- some German banks had to file in for bancrupcy as well. That is why the American election is so important, to Europe and the world! There is an increasing interest in the American elections- in Europe. America has been the forerunner in democracy in the last century (which was no doubt a good thing for the whole world), and there are many things which I can see which worry me.
Most of these are linked to Bush and the Republican religious-right, some trend which I have already seen when I studied at Rice U. about 10 years ago.
And there are many things which have to be solved on a global scale, like global warming (which Palin said she was not sure if this is caused by human), the ozone layer, the world economy, terrorism, the energy problem ...

Oh, I realize it, and I'm no isolationist.  I just don't buy into the one world view and that we should to Germany, France, the UK, to look at who our leader should be.

[J. J.]

But then, it might be worth a thought that you should try to select the leader who is hopefully also popular in Europe. Or in any other nation in the world.

Al Gore would have been such a person, BTW. Many people in Germany have even read his books.

I want a President of the United States of America, not a President of Bavaria.

[J. J.]

It's actually looking at better outside of the DJIA, though I'm glad I only have $200 in Sovereign.

The S&P 500 is currently down more than the Dow. I posted the S&P 500 numbers because they are a better indicator of the market as a whole, and mutual funds are compared against the S&P 500. Of course the mutual fund of stuffing bills into your mattress has significantly outperformed the S&P 500 during the Bush administration.

Ah, Sovereign is a bank, with heavy mortgage investments.  They were performing poorly for about 12 months.  I moved all but $200 out of accounts (for other reasons).

And I am actually interested in having a great leader- for both the US, and the world.
The US is the only superpower left, and if you will have another 8 years of someone like Bush, not only the US will be in trouble.

I'll remember thhat, the next time I walk into a voting booth and vote for Weltkaiser.

[J. J.]

Thud.  -504 in one day.  Lehman Brothers dropped to 18 cents/share.  Washington Mutual dropped to $2.00/share.  Now, the question is, what will tomorrow bring?  I will say that there will be more early morning sell-off, but it will balance out in the afternoon, closing above the 11,000 mark.  

Probably.  There are profits to be had.

[J. J.]

Basically, you are looking a segment of the financial markets that took a hit today.  The market just responded, but there is a least a 50% that the market will absorb the hit.

[J. J.]

Unless there is a chain reaction and another large bank goes down.
Let's hope that this won't happen...

There might be some banks that get hit for the same reason, but not banking as a whole.

[J. J.]

Unless there is a chain reaction and another large bank goes down.
Let's hope that this won't happen...

There might be some banks that get hit for the same reason, but not banking as a whole.

Why not?

Most banks are not as invested in the subprime market.

[J. J.]

In a month, this will be a blip.

[J. J.]

In a month, this will be a blip.

That will probably depend on if this multi-bank stability plan that the banks are currently working on (pooling resources together to loan to struggling banks and/or buy some of their liabilities) works or not.  I think it is a smart business plan by the collective to stabalize their own sector.  However, you are going to see a hit on the insurance companies as they start paying out for all the damages in the gulf, though the individuals and companies that receive their payments will stimulate the home construction companies and local realty markets by buying homes that have been sitting in foreclosure (rather than rebuilding).

Some of that, where the damages were the largest, will be flooding and covered (if at all) by the Feds.

You might see some takeovers of banks with my [sarcasm]favorite[/sarcasm] bank, Sovereign being the most prominent.  That will be the last of the "subprime shakeout."  The one thing you will see is the concentration of greater assets in fewer firms.

Obama's speaking about it now, and it could backfire.

[J. J.]

In a month, this will be a blip.

That will probably depend on if this multi-bank stability plan that the banks are currently working on (pooling resources together to loan to struggling banks and/or buy some of their liabilities) works or not.  I think it is a smart business plan by the collective to stabalize their own sector.  However, you are going to see a hit on the insurance companies as they start paying out for all the damages in the gulf, though the individuals and companies that receive their payments will stimulate the home construction companies and local realty markets by buying homes that have been sitting in foreclosure (rather than rebuilding).

Some of that, where the damages were the largest, will be flooding and covered (if at all) by the Feds.

You might see some takeovers of banks with my [sarcasm]favorite[/sarcasm] bank, Sovereign being the most prominent.  That will be the last of the "subprime shakeout."  The one thing you will see is the concentration of greater assets in fewer firms.

Obama's speaking about it now, and it could backfire.

...and then the entire issue of competition comes up. Gee...talking economics is fun. To tell you the truth, I am not really worried about this as much as we are being greased up for the global cooldown. We will simply not have the banking capitol to provide enough loans for businesses to retool the new conditions of a China growning at 1 or 2% per annum, instead of 9 or 10% per annum. Then again, maybe the market will be too cold to react too violently to any sudden changes. 

The market takes care of that.  I think we do sufficient capital.

[J. J.]

My friend, formerly of Bear Stearns (now JP Morgan) recommends you begin heavily investing in funds placed under your mattress.

Well that mutual fund has greatly outperformed the market during the Bush administration. However past performance does not mean future performance.

So, we COULD be fu cked...

Probably not.

[J. J.]

Commodity prices are well off their highs, which is a good sign.

[J. J.]

You might see interest rates increase, long term.

I think the day of crisis will be Friday or Monday.

And Asia is reflective.

How many of you can actually remember the last economic shock, other than 9/11?  Seriously

[J. J.]

You might see interest rates increase, long term.

I think the day of crisis will be Friday or Monday.

And Asia is reflective.

How many of you can actually remember the last economic shock, other than 9/11?  Seriously

Actually, it was much worse.  The S and L crisis.

I remember that the other President George Bush had a crappy economy too, although it wasn't this bad.

[J. J.]

Is this now White Thursday the day the crisis ends?

[J. J.]

You might see interest rates increase, long term.

I think the day of crisis will be Friday or Monday.

And Asia is reflective.

How many of you can actually remember the last economic shock, other than 9/11?  Seriously

Actually, it was much worse.  The S and L crisis.

I remember that the other President George Bush had a crappy economy too, although it wasn't this bad.

Oh, yeah, Keating Five. We have some of the same problems again this time. That deregulation Reagan got through worked out real well.

That was theft; this is stupidity.

[J. J.]

You might see interest rates increase, long term.

I think the day of crisis will be Friday or Monday.

And Asia is reflective.

How many of you can actually remember the last economic shock, other than 9/11?  Seriously

Not all of us are so young....

Asia is reflective, although it looks like markets fell again today.

If this stabilizes by Monday, it's over.  It won't affect the election.

[J. J.]

You might see interest rates increase, long term.

I think the day of crisis will be Friday or Monday.

And Asia is reflective.

How many of you can actually remember the last economic shock, other than 9/11?  Seriously

Not all of us are so young....

Asia is reflective, although it looks like markets fell again today.

If this stabilizes by Monday, it's over.  It won't affect the election.

This could easily all fade by Monday once the media news cycle runs its course and they switch to another lead story.

Still it will remain in the background as an issue, and it does potentially shift the terrain slightly in Obama's favor even if WaMu or another large financial leader doesn't go belly-up.

Every day matters and this is the beginning of the time frame when low-information voters are starting to tune in....

Next stop, the debates.....

It probably won't be a lasting issue, if it ends Friday or Saturday.

[J. J.]

Platinum Friday?

[J. J.]

"Come ye cool cool conservative men
The likes of which may never be seen again
We have land, cash in hand
Self-command, future planned
Fortune flies, society survives
In neatly ordered lives with well-endowered wives

We sing hosanna, hosanna
To our breeding and our banner
We are cool"



"Cool Cool Considerate Men," 1776 (1969)

[J. J.]

Both a plea to hold off of on panicking.