Biden gets mixed welcome in Philly.. Good read from Philadelphia Daily News

[J. J.]

Being from the area this article refers to I can say this.  Yeah, a lot of older Democrats won't vote for Obama based on race.  However, I don't think it'll be as bad as people think because well... McCain's policies just plain suck plus the fact that a black candidate, Michael Nutter, actually beat a Northeast Philly white Republican by a margin greater than John Kerry beat George Bush even here.  I'm thinking Obama won't pull Kerry's numbers here, especially amongst the older voters, but there are some younger voters going for Obama even though they voted for Bush in 2004.  Unfortunately for the Dems, a lot of people here are old and yes a bit racist, but I still think McCain will pull off the 66th Ward as described in the article and definitely the 55th and 64th as well, but it won't be a landslide.  Kerry won all Philly wards.

There is a difference between the Nutter campaign and the Obama campaign.

Nutter, who was in the financial field, and a Wharton School graduate, campaigned as the boy next door.  Olivia won that race for him.  If anyone is like him, it's Palin.

Obama isn't really elitist (or anymore elitist than Nutter or McCain), but he comes off as one.

[J. J.]

Except this isn't a Mayoral race. People have come to accept a black man being Mayor here. This is different. Plus, our Republican candidate was...uh...yeah.

Obama losing any NE wards hurts badly. He's going to lose a few. He's going to come out of Philly weaker than Kerry and Gore. He's going to lose the state.

This is exactly what I have been talking about and people have laughed it off. Maybe some people will think twice next time.

I don't know if he'll lose the state, but Bush actually improved his percentage in Phila in 2004.

I still have PA as a tossup.

[J. J.]

Yeah, pretty laughable to think anyone could possibly do better than the colossus of a candidate that was John Kerry. He after all certainly had the pulse of white working class blue collar voters.

He wasn't George Bush. He had experience. He was white. He was Catholic. He didn't have a Rev. Wright scandal. He didn't make comments about guns and religion.

Sorry but those are huge factors here.

Statewide, I think the Wright association and Gog and guns comment, will hurt the Obama Campaign.  Palin may help the  campaign.  It will be close.


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Uh...that's what I am arguing. I just don't think Obama is up by as much as the polls say.

That isn't one of my rules.  It is that when someone says, "I don't look at the polls," they are lying.  A corollary is:  Never trust one poll.

We need PA polls after the bounces to see what is happening

[J. J.]

This article indicates that working class Dems who are voting against Obama because of his race are rather open about it: I would be surprised if they felt the need to lie to a pollster. I'd be surprised if there's a Bradley Effect; there wasn't one in the primaries.

That's why I think the Muslim smear was devised as a cover for racists to avoid having to admit they were voting against Obama because of his race. Saying "I'm not voting for that Muslim slime" is more socially acceptable than "I'm not voting for that n*****"

The are older white Dems who think he is actually Musllim.  I know it's a shame, but people really think that.  I hate to have to bring up race in this, but people here really think that way unfortunately. 

However, I bring up Nutter for this reason- Northeast whites aren't that adverse to voting for an African American which is why I only think Obama will surely lose only 1 Ward in NE Philly and probably 3 others- 2 NE, 1 South.  When it comes to the race issue, I have been pleasantly surprised in the past.  I thought Nutter was only going to get 75-77% because of race.  He got 85% and won handily a lot of the same Wards we've been talking about, even the most conservative.  Will Obama puil Nutter or even Kerry's numbers?  Probably not, but it will be nowhere near Street/Katz territory either.  Obama has cred amongst white voters even here and if he 1. Campaigns heavily with Biden and Rendell and 2. Shows his distance from the John Street, Jesse Jackson, and Al Sharpton types, which he has shown in the past, he has a good chance with a lot of white voters here.

Which Street-Katz.  If Obama only wins Phila as strongly as Street did in 1999, he is doomed statewide.  Even 2003 Street-Katz would be a serious problem.

[J. J.]

I'm thinking it won't be even close to 2003 Katz-Street.  Obama has consistently polled in the 70s citywide the McCain in the high teens with the rest undecided.  Interestingly that's about what Kerry polled prior to the election.  Look, if it comes down to the economy and War, McCain has problems I don't care how much race i involved. 

Bush had 19.3% in Phila in 2004.  Even at 22.5% that could be a loss.  Ridge in 1994 had around 25%.

If McCain is running that relatively well in Phila, PA is a tossup.

[J. J.]

J.J and Phil- You both are forgetting one thing and I know at least Phil will snicker- Biden.  He definitely gives Obama a boost in NE Philly/Lower Bucks whether you like to think so or not.  Might be a few points, but it could be enough to sway a Ward or 2 from going the other way. Palin would give McCain no such boost. 

It could, and Palin could boost numbers in the "T" just as well.

If Obama is in the mid 70's in just Philadelphia, he has a problem in Pennsylvania, not a friend.  With Biden on the ticket, low to mid 80's would be expected.

[J. J.]

I would be amazed if Biden has any impact on Pennsylvania, except perhaps a generic one that is not about Pennsylvania qua Pennsylvania, i.e., with a few odd down market ethnic whites. Why on earth would he? Because he is from Scranton? Because he lives nearby? I ain't buying it. And if there is a God, maybe he will send a few odd Torie types who were going to vote for Obama to the exits. Yes, I find Biden quite repulsive.

Biden is basically in the Phila media market.  If there is a story about him, it's seen in SE PA.  It should help.

[J. J.]

J.J and Phil- You both are forgetting one thing and I know at least Phil will snicker- Biden.  He definitely gives Obama a boost in NE Philly/Lower Bucks whether you like to think so or not.  Might be a few points, but it could be enough to sway a Ward or 2 from going the other way. Palin would give McCain no such boost. 

It could, and Palin could boost numbers in the "T" just as well.

If Obama is in the mid 70's in just Philadelphia, he has a problem in Pennsylvania, not a friend.  With Biden on the ticket, low to mid 80's would be expected.

If Hillary Clinton were leading the ticket, she's have mid 80s regardless of VP choice.  If it were Biden, even the more conservative Wards would have 60-65 percent vote totals and possibly a citywide total of the high 80s.

My guess as of now 77.5-21.5-1.  Obama can win statewide with those numbers in Philly. 

21.5 for McCain in Phila really pushes it.  I think there will be a Bradley effect of less than 1 point statewide; Phila will be no exception.  If it is that close, this state is undecided.  Pennsylvania could be what Florida was in 2000.

Since I've been here, Biden's been on TV; I'd know who he was from that.

[J. J.]

J.J and Phil- You both are forgetting one thing and I know at least Phil will snicker- Biden.  He definitely gives Obama a boost in NE Philly/Lower Bucks whether you like to think so or not.  Might be a few points, but it could be enough to sway a Ward or 2 from going the other way. Palin would give McCain no such boost. 

It could, and Palin could boost numbers in the "T" just as well.

If Obama is in the mid 70's in just Philadelphia, he has a problem in Pennsylvania, not a friend.  With Biden on the ticket, low to mid 80's would be expected.

If Hillary Clinton were leading the ticket, she's have mid 80s regardless of VP choice.  If it were Biden, even the more conservative Wards would have 60-65 percent vote totals and possibly a citywide total of the high 80s.

My guess as of now 77.5-21.5-1.  Obama can win statewide with those numbers in Philly. 

21.5 for McCain in Phila really pushes it.  I think there will be a Bradley effect of less than 1 point statewide; Phila will be no exception.  If it is that close, this state is undecided.  Pennsylvania could be what Florida was in 2000.

Since I've been here, Biden's been on TV; I'd know who he was from that.

You think better than 21.5% in Philly for McCain in the end?

From what I've read, the Bradley effect has diminished quite a bit since the 1980s.

It use to be about 10 points.  I think it's there, but under 1 point.

Anything over 20% is bad for Obama, though probably survivable at the low end, 20.5%.  22% depends on how many people heard him say "Nittaly Lions."  22.5% and Tom Ridge is back in the Cabinet.  That's without the Bradley Effect.

21.5 it comes down to if it's raining in Phila at 7:00 AM.  Think Florida in 2000.

[J. J.]

You know, I live in a major city too, and basically no one (including myself) knows who their neighborhood committee person is, and no one except political junkies can name the local party leaders.

It's a bit different in Phila.  We basically have political appointments down to the block level, and some of our neighborhoods are quite stable.

[J. J.]

Phil there could be a bradley effect amongst independents but I don't see why there would be one amongst republicans. There could be hundreds of reasons why republicans are voting against Obama. If a democrat is voting against Obama then it gets a little tricky. I think there was a slight bradley effect in Pennsylvania during the primaries and I will expect it on election day as well.

There is going to be a Bradley effect amongst older whites in the area, I can guarantee that.  However, it won't be as pronounced as it was in the 1980s, Northeast Philly being no exception.  The Bradley effect will however be stronger in some wards than other and my call is the 64th will surely flip from D 2004 to R 2008 because of it.  I am also calling for 1 or 2 out of the 26th, 55th or 66th to flip as well.  There will even be a Bradley effect in the more Democratic wards such as the 41st, 58th and 65th as well.  I have rethought my process here.  One thing I have noticed in most recent elections here is the Democrats have always been perceived as the "black man's party."  2000 and 2004 were no different.  It has always looked worse on the surface for the Democrats here in the months leading up to the election.  Guess what has happened in the end ultimately?  Yeah, I have bragging rights, but Phil does make some interesting arguments.       

Yes since the primaries I have always felt PA was a crucial state for Obama in the general. All this favorable polling has put my mind to ease but you are correct that PA,OH and other states with high working class dems with racial problems will have a bradley effect. I think nationally it might not be so pronounced but in these states it could account for 2-3 points. But considering PA has been polling about d+4-5 for a while now I am not so worried. I bet Obama will do a little worse than Kerry in parts of philly and western pa but will make it up with the philly burbs and certain parts of the T. It very well could be a similar result to 2004 even with Obama winning the election. 

In some of 'burbs, not, Bucks and possibly Montco could be problems.

[J. J.]

I'll prefer to wait until I see some good polling of PA.  Biden is a definite plus, but what is the Palin effect.  I don't have an answer.

[J. J.]

I don't have an answer.

Not to sound rude but that is getting incredibly annoying.

Well, I don't have one, and for now, no one else does.

We have something new in the equation, Sarah Palin.  That has potential for driving up GOP votes from the Phila 'burbs to the Ohio border, but note the word "potential."

We're in new territory folks.