Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[J. J.]

Oh well J. J.  Win some, lose some.

I still think Hillary has a decent shot to get the nomination.  I don't understand why no one else gets it.

She doesn't have a shot, unless something comes out on Obama between now and the nomination (and it would have to be bad).  She does have a very good shot of destroying the convention at this point.

LOL. You were saying Hillary still had a good shot as late as early JUNE. The second sentence has no basis in reality whatsoever (as she has made absolutely no intentions at all toward doing so.)

But then again, how many post-NH J. J. predictions have come true?

Hillary would come close in South Carolina.

SC I'm sure about.

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I think I said Obama needed a victory to win on Super Tuesday to end the primary.  I'm soooooo glad he ended the primary in January.

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Would you care to post the link

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That one I'll give you.

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She did by double digits, I did think it would be stronger.

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"Landslide?"  I think I said she had to keep NC in single digits.

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No, I said that Obama needed to resolve it, or it would fester into a problem.  I suggested that they hold a second primary in MI.  The damage has been done. 

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New Hampshire, mini-Super Tuesday, the primary not being over until June, some potential problems at the convention.  Now, we wait until tomorrow.

[J. J.]

Here's a link:

The independents vote for McCain.  Hillary gets the conservative Democratic vote (which is still there).  VA also seems to have a number of Latinos and Asians (9% overall, vs. 19% African American).  The remaining 70% are Caucasian.

It's possible for a VA win for Clinton.  Primary, correct?

The bolded part..LOLOLOLOLOL! Some of the most extreme idiocy I've ever read.

No that is an answer to your question: "Re: Can anyone explain what a Hillary victory in Virginia would look like? "

I'll give you PA and NC, but no "landslide" in IN.

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As if your suggestions have any bearing whatsoever on the results.
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No BRTD, I said he should resolve it, then he wouldn't be facing the complains over it.  What he faced the charges of a "coup" and a "stolen" nomination.  I don't think either charge is accurate, but they have happened and the Democratic party has been divided.  It may not heal in time for the election.

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You are illiterate. I'd point out the part of my post that excludes this but anyone of inteligence above third grade should be able to find it out.

the primary not being over until June

Same prediction as me. At least I wasn't saying in early June Obama was "possibly" the nominee.
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I was looking at a way to end the process well before June

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"Potential" blah blah blah. Please point to me any remote indicator that all of Hillary's delegates are planning to walk out of the convention which you claim is some very likely event (or the fact that Hillary plans on doing anything at the convention other than hold a vote that she loses. Hillary's delegates vote for Hillary, Obama's delegates vote for Obama. Wow, what a huge fucking problem.)
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Yes, it is huge if 30-45% of the Democratic delegates say they don't want the nominee.  It's huge from a PR standpoint.  It happened to the Democrats in 1980, the Republicans to a lesser extent in 1976, and to a greater extent in 1964.  Really the only postwar one where a divided party elected a president was 1948.

I doubt if this will be 1964, but something between 1976 (R) and 1980 (D) is a possibility.  We'll see how it plays out in a few week, but it did play out during the past week.

[J. J.]

If Obama is actually up +2 (which is my own personal guess - 1.5 to 2, it's what the state poll average says too), then Obama +5 is within the MOE of these tracking polls, and quite frankly, so is McCain +1.

Also, what Alcon said - and you have to into account that bad samples may occur.

However, if there is actual movement back to Obama, it will become apparent, you just have to give it time to make sure that what appears like movement isn't just a bad sample or a mirage bounce (like the European trip).  It's kind of like a waiting game.

I'm also thinking that there might be something with the sample methods.  Maybe over representing McCain midweek, or over representing Obama on the weekends.

[J. J.]

Hmm, I must say I am baffled how his lead didn't grow with Saturday polling included.

Because, for the second time, you are ignoring natural volatility/bad sampling, and assuming that this is a flat-lined race with Obama spikes on weekends.  Also, consider rounding; it's possible, maybe likely (tendency toward the mean) that the previous result was a "weak" +5.

There may have been a higher than normal sample for Obama midweek?

[J. J.]

Hmm, I must say I am baffled how his lead didn't grow with Saturday polling included.

Because, for the second time, you are ignoring natural volatility/bad sampling, and assuming that this is a flat-lined race with Obama spikes on weekends.  Also, consider rounding; it's possible, maybe likely (tendency toward the mean) that the previous result was a "weak" +5.

There may have been a higher than normal sample for Obama midweek?

Yesterday's Rasmussen poll seems to be the opposite.  If that is the case than McCain is in serious trouble.  It always seems the Rasmussen and Gallup polls are opposite of each other since earlier in the summer Rassmussen had Obama ahead and Gallup had the race closer, now Rassmussen has the race closer and Gallup has Obama outside the margin of error or within a reasonable prediction.

The weekend have tended to be higher for Obama in Gallup, and not in Rasmussen.  I was actually thinking that there was something in the sample method that might account for it.  Now, with this week probably not, but I'm wondering if last weeks sample might have had  single skewed  sample (or, conversely, this one has a skewed sample for McCain).

[J. J.]

I really wish people would just give up on this "weekend polling" crap. I've lost track if the polls are supposed to be more in favor of which candidate and on what days. When the polls tighten/open up, everyone tries to justify why it's where it is with the equivalent of specious reasoning.

But yet it is usually there, or a midweek bounce for McCain, whichever way you want to measure it.  I'll add that it's usually there in Gallup, and not Rasmussen.

I think it might have more to do with how Gallup is sampling than any movement in the race.

[J. J.]

Mon 7/28:      Obama +8  (F, Sa, Su)<
Tue 7/29:       Obama +6  (Sa, Su, M)<
Wed 7/30:      Obama +4 (, Su, M, T)<
Thurs: 7/31:   Obama +1 (M, Tu, W)
Fri 8/1:           Tie (Tu,W, Th)
Sat 8/2:           Tie (W, Th, F) <
Sun 8/3:          Obama +1 (Th, F, Sa) <
Mon 8/4:         Obama +3 (F, Sa, Su) <
Tue 8/5:          Obama +4 (Sa, Su, Mo)<
Wed 8/6:         Obama +2 (Su, Mo, Tu)<
Thurs: 8/7:      Obama +3 (Mo, Tu, W)
Fri 8/8:            Obama +3 (Tu, W, Th)
Sat 8/9:            Obama +5 (W, Th, F)<
Sun 8/10:         Obama +3 (Th, F, SA)<
Mon 8/11:        Obama +5 (Sa, Su, M)<

What happens when the weekend number go in, Obama's lead tends to increase.  When the weekend numbers come out, he tends to drop.  An increase of numbers tomorrow for Obama, where there are no weekend numbers, will be significant.  A drop won't.

[J. J.]

What happens when the weekend number go in, Obama's lead tends to increase.  When the weekend numbers come out, he tends to drop.  An increase of numbers tomorrow for Obama, where there are no weekend numbers, will be significant.  A drop won't.

What days of the week(tracking polls being released-wise), should we look for the bump?

Numbers that include Friday, Saturday and Sunday tend to be higher for Obama, in Gallup polls.  Polls released, Thursday and Friday, tend to be lower.  You can get lower numbers when you get just one day.  If Obama goes up tomorrow, it probably means he's doing better; if he drops, it's probably just the mid week sample.  If he drops on Sunday, it probably means he's dropped.

[J. J.]

It's McCain's midweek bounce. The notable thing is that McCain STILL has not taken the lead.

Didn't you just claim McCain would have a midweek bounce?  Or is "li'l Zack the Barack Hack" also a hypocrat.

[It actually is McCain's midweek bounce which I've referring to.  It's nothing to get excited over.  If Obama's numbers show study or go down on Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday, open the very cheap champaign (and water it down a bit).]

[J. J.]

At this point, it's more a Gallup poll phenomenon than anything important.  Don't get excited of it.

[J. J.]

I never said McCain didn't perform better mid-week, I'm just mocking J. J. (who in mind has clearly never left the second grade) for his prediction that McCain would lead mid-week (LAST week) if there was no VP announcement.

You were wrong J. J. Do you deny that? McCain doesn't lead. So your prediction was idiotic and a load of crap.

I said that there is a trend and, looking back at last week it looked like a high Obama sample in there.

BRTD, you were the one complaining about me saying that.  BRTD, being a hack and a hypocrite at the same time isn't a good combination.  Don't take my word for it; just ask John Edwards.

[J. J.]

This is the midweek bump for McCain.  Tomorrow, we should see something with a weekend sample in it (Friday's numbers).  It probably[/b] has little to do with the race and more to do with how Gallup gets its sample.

[J. J.]

Sunday - August 17, 2008

Obama - 45% (nc)
McCain - 45% (+1)

OK, this might be be a bad sample, but now, this something we want to watch.  If this continues into the Wednesday numbers, the race has gotten tighter.

[J. J.]

Sunday - August 17, 2008

Obama - 45% (nc)
McCain - 45% (+1)

OK, this might be be a bad sample, but now, this something we want to watch.  If this continues into the Wednesday numbers, the race has gotten tighter.

Sunday - August 17, 2008


I wonder why... Obama seems to be raising twice as much money...

You screwed up the post, but raising money is not an accurate measure of who will win.

[J. J.]

OK, this might be be a bad sample, but now, this something we want to watch.  If this continues into the Wednesday numbers, the race has gotten tighter.

Maybe this "weekend bounce" just doesn't exist after all.

As you can see from the most recent numbers, yes it does.

[J. J.]

As you can see from the most recent numbers, yes it does.

This is a fallacious argument.  This is not a static race.  There is statistical noise, and there is actual movement.  As such, simply comparing one weekend sample to one weekday sample, and determining a causation from that, is spurious.

Except the pattern seems to be there.  I think it is more of the function of the Gallup sampling technique than anything really happening in the race.

Alcon, I'm saying that "weekend bounce" is part of that "statistical noise."

[J. J.]

this drop is one with a monday replacing a friday, so it really would have zero to do with any sort of weekend issues, I would say.  I just think the race is really close and polls tend to bounce a few points here and there and Sunday must've been quite a bit better than Thursday for Obama, while Monday was better than Friday for McCain... all by only a few points within the margin of error, actually.

I'd prefer to wait until later in the week until declaring this tightening.  If McCain ties or pulls ahead by Saturday, probably.  It's too early.

Obama, all things considered, is underperforming, but that can quickly change.

[J. J.]

Obama 45 (nc)

McCain 43 (-1)

Probably a good sample for McCain that dropped.

this drop is one with a monday replacing a friday, so it really would have zero to do with any sort of weekend issues, I would say.  I just think the race is really close and polls tend to bounce a few points here and there and Sunday must've been quite a bit better than Thursday for Obama, while Monday was better than Friday for McCain... all by only a few points within the margin of error, actually.

Saturday's might have been the high one.

[J. J.]

August 22, 2008

Obama:  45 (nc)

McCain:  44 (+1)

[J. J.]

Obama 45 (nc)

McCain 43 (-1)

Probably a good sample for McCain that dropped.

this drop is one with a monday replacing a friday, so it really would have zero to do with any sort of weekend issues, I would say.  I just think the race is really close and polls tend to bounce a few points here and there and Sunday must've been quite a bit better than Thursday for Obama, while Monday was better than Friday for McCain... all by only a few points within the margin of error, actually.

Saturday's might have been the high one.

Tomorrow will be all weekdays, so likely McCain moves in front...  could be since 1) Sunday must've been a decent day for Obama and it will drop tomorrow; and 2) Polls seem to show mccain moving ahead nationally right now, so even without a midweek bump, one might think McCain will move ahead tomorrow.

I think if McCain fails to move at least even, this will be evidence against a midweek/weekend bias of some sort.

He stayed behind, but I wouldn't rule out a further bump/slump.  I'd call it a tight race, but Obama still ahead.

[J. J.]

I must note the irony where elcorazon thinks the race is going a bit better for McCain than I do. 

[J. J.]

I think the race is pretty damn even right now.

I think McCain has a good chance to pull ahead in time for election day.

I think the midweek bounce was a decent hypothesis that likely doesn't exist.

I think Walter Mitty is a useless waste of human flesh.

I think it is very close, perhaps a bit closer than even late July; it has gotten closer than June.

I think there is a good chance of this being a close election into the Fall.

I think we will even see a boost for Obama even before the announcement.

I think Opebo is a complete waste of human flesh, except as a subject for testing STD drugs.

[J. J.]

August 22, 2008

Obama:  45 (nc)

McCain:  44 (nc)


Absolutely static.

[J. J.]

The race has tightened since early July, which is NOT good news for Obama.  However, Obama still maintains a lead of probably 1-3 points.

[J. J.]

August 22, 2008

Obama:  45 (nc)

McCain:  44 (nc)


Absolutely static.

at least until Obama gets his weekend bump.  that should start with tomorrow's numbers and continue building thru Monday's, then Tues thru thurs should turn down again, right?  although I guess the veep/convention could change things, huh?

The Veep announcement/convention should make a difference; I think it's been overhyped at this point.  There is still long term erosion in Obama's positioning, not huge, but enough.  The convention bounce will be interesting, as will McCain's Veep announcement.