Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[J. J.]

I'd be keeping my eye on this one; McCain tends to do better on Gallup late week on Gallup (at least over the summer).

[J. J.]

RV

Obama 50 (+1)
McCain 43 (nc)

LV (expanded)

Obama 51 (nc)
McCain 45 (nc)

LV (traditional)

Obama 49 (nc)
McCain 47 (nc)

Okay, why did MSNBC just announce that Obama was up 5 points since Tuesday?

[J. J.]

The young showed up in the primaries. Why would they suddenly stop?

One obvious reason is living in a different city.  Perhaps 20% graduated and moved on.

[J. J.]

The young showed up in the primaries. Why would they suddenly stop?

One obvious reason is living in a different city.  Perhaps 20% graduated and moved on.

Do you lose your right to vote when you graduate?

You do tend to lose your residence.  In the US, you have to re-register at the new address.

[J. J.]

The young showed up in the primaries. Why would they suddenly stop?

One obvious reason is living in a different city.  Perhaps 20% graduated and moved on.

Do you lose your right to vote when you graduate?

You do tend to lose your residence.  In the US, you have to re-register at the new address.

Yeah, good thing the Obama campaign didn't spend the summer and fall registering millions of voters.

Some of those younger people registered at home, and forgot to file for an absentee ballot; some get the application and forget to file it on time because they have a term paper due.  Some graduate, move on, and don't re-register.  Some move to different apartment in another precinct and forget to re-register.  Those little things may have an effect, just maybe a few 1000 here and there, but it makes a difference.

[J. J.]

The young showed up in the primaries. Why would they suddenly stop?

One obvious reason is living in a different city.  Perhaps 20% graduated and moved on.

Do you lose your right to vote when you graduate?

You do tend to lose your residence.  In the US, you have to re-register at the new address.

Yeah, good thing the Obama campaign didn't spend the summer and fall registering millions of voters.

Some of those younger people registered at home, and forgot to file for an absentee ballot; some get the application and forget to file it on time because they have a term paper due.  Some graduate, move on, and don't re-register.  Some move to different apartment in another precinct and forget to re-register.  Those little things may have an effect, just maybe a few 1000 here and there, but it makes a difference.

Those things can happen to non-young people also. 20-year-olds aren't lazier or stupider than the rest of the population.

When did I say going to college makes 20 year olds are "lazier or stupider than the rest of the population?"  I think this makes the argument that they are not.

Most 30 year olds, however, don't move from year to year.  He is my personal pattern.

Age         Number of moves

18                 1

19                 1

20                 2

21                 1

22                 2

23                 1

24-29            0

30                 1

31-35            0

36-46            0

[J. J.]

The young showed up in the primaries. Why would they suddenly stop?

One obvious reason is living in a different city.  Perhaps 20% graduated and moved on.

Do you lose your right to vote when you graduate?

You do tend to lose your residence.  In the US, you have to re-register at the new address.

A lot of them would've had the same problem in the primaries, though.

Heck, look at how high the youth turnout was in the Iowa caucus, which was held during winter break for the universities. The timing of the caucus during college vacation was something that I remember the media mentioning might doom Obama there.

Nym, in general, what time of the year to people graduate from college?

[J. J.]

The young showed up in the primaries. Why would they suddenly stop?

One obvious reason is living in a different city.  Perhaps 20% graduated and moved on.

Do you lose your right to vote when you graduate?

You do tend to lose your residence.  In the US, you have to re-register at the new address.

A lot of them would've had the same problem in the primaries, though.

Heck, look at how high the youth turnout was in the Iowa caucus, which was held during winter break for the universities. The timing of the caucus during college vacation was something that I remember the media mentioning might doom Obama there.

Nym, in general, what time of the year to people graduate from college?

May of course. Which is why I said a lot, as opposed to most.

Though I'd wager that the gap between May and December graduations is less than it once was as the percentage of students who take say 4 and a half years to graduate as opposed to 4 has probably gone up a bit through the years.

Would be interesting to see if youth turnout dropped significantly as a percentage of the electorate in the May and June primaries vs. the earlier ones as a way of testing your hypothesis.

That's why I said 20%, but some are June.

It's a good thing for Republicans that people who graduate college and earn B. A.s are too stupid to know how to re-register.

Many simply forget or move after the registration deadline.

[J. J.]

I'd bet any sum of money that does not equal 20% of Obama's young primary voters.

I'll bet 20% of Obama's young (18-22) primary voters are not in the same precinct that were in last time.

[J. J.]

I'd bet any sum of money that does not equal 20% of Obama's young primary voters.

I'll bet 20% of Obama's young (18-22) primary voters are not in the same precinct that were in last time.

That's retarded.  20% of his primary voters have not switched apartments since summer, that's a bet you would be certain to lose.  Anyway, it's impossible to convince J.J. anything ever, so let's just go back to Gallup.

I didn't say 20% of his primary voters, I said 20% of his young primary voters.  

There is no change in the likely voters for Gallup, but I'm not seeing the numbers on the website either.

[J. J.]

Go to Gallup.com and look at the top under Gallup Daily. It shows all three polls.

It's still not up.

[J. J.]

Even if 20% of Obama's young primary voters have changed residences since then, it's obvious that not every single one has not re-registered, or even that a majority haven't. So Obama has not lost 20% of his young voters.

BRTD, where did I say that there would be a 20% drop from the primaries.  I didn't.  I said that there could be a reduction, and that one reason is probably 20% have moved.

[J. J.]

This is starting to get too close for comfort again, at least in the national tracking polls. It's nice to know that a lot of people have voted already at least though.

Right, we don't need them changing their minds and voting McCain.

Keep looking for a trend.

[J. J.]

Even if 20% of Obama's young primary voters have changed residences since then, it's obvious that not every single one has not re-registered, or even that a majority haven't. So Obama has not lost 20% of his young voters.

BRTD, where did I say that there would be a 20% drop from the primaries.  I didn't.  I said that there could be a reduction, and that one reason is probably 20% have moved.

Here's the argument in a nutshell:

J. J. (and others) says the traditional voter model is more accurate since youth never vote.
Lief points out there was a huge surge of turnout in the primaries.
J. J. argues some of those have moved and gives the 20% estimate.
Many point out anyone graduating college isn't so dumb they don't know how to re-register.
The other arguments that come that "some" have not, blah blah blah.

While probably a factor in the end equals a very small one and not alone enough reason to argue that there will be no increase in youth turnout after 2004 whatsoever (which is the basis of arguing the traditional model is the correct one.) It also ignores other factors such as same-day registration states, people registered since the primaries, people too young to vote in the primaries now 18, etc. Of course J. J. is a big fan of this type of grasping at straws (see Mormons in Colorado.) so it's hardly a surprise, but the argument that the young voters will never show up no matter what happens in primaries needs to be a bit bigger than this little nitpick.

BTW I'm one of the "20%" if we accept this figure as correct as I have moved since February, and I have re-registered, even though I don't have to since I live in a same day registration state.

BRTD, you are wrong in the summary.  I'm saying that there has been a low traditional youth turnout, and some of that will have an effect.  It's more structural.

The huge registration in the the one state I've looked at, PA, was before the primary.  There has a gain, but not a lot:

Latest figures (September 29)

8.548.580 registered voters, of which

4.357.663 are Democrats (50.98%)
3.207.728 are Republicans (37.52%)
983.189 are Ind. or from other parties (11.50%)

Compared with the 2008 primary (April 17)

8.328.123 registered voters, of which

4.200.109 are Democrats (50.43%)
3.186.057 are Republicans (38.26%)
941.957 are Ind. or from other parties (11.31%)

In PA, about 157.000 new Democrats have been registered.

Here are the numbers from 2006.

Compared with November 2006:

8.182.876 registered voters, of which

3.900.685 are Democrats (47.67%)
3.300.894 are Republicans (40.34%)
981.297 are Ind. or from other parties (11.99%)

Most of the "new" Democrats, about 300,000 came in prior to the primary, or a 2.76 percentage point gain to a 0.55 percentage point gain after the primary.

Now, you've posted on Tender Branson's thread, so you must have seen this.

[J. J.]

This is starting to get too close for comfort again, at least in the national tracking polls. It's nice to know that a lot of people have voted already at least though.

Right, we don't need them changing their minds and voting McCain.

Keep looking for a trend.

Huh? I don't get what you mean.

I'm looking for movement in the polls, and as of Friday, I was not seeing any movement.  Keep watch in for movement (today's Rasmussen might be some movement for Obama).

[J. J.]

Sunday - October 19

RV:

Obama: 52 (+2)
McCain: 42 (nc)

LV (Expanded):

Obama: 51 (+1)
McCain: 44 (-2)

LV (Traditional):

Obama: 49 (nc)
McCain: 46 (-1)

Some of it might be the weekend, but I'd a good +5 for Obama.  Tending in Obama's direction.

[J. J.]

Problem is once he's elected and he destroys the economy and allows Russia to run over Eastern Europe (it would be the perfect time to do it), people will be still praising him.

What is with Republicans this year... was there some weird space-time continum issue that sent them back to 1980.

I think you might have to back for more years to find the analogy.

[J. J.]

Problem is once he's elected and he destroys the economy and allows Russia to run over Eastern Europe (it would be the perfect time to do it), people will be still praising him.

What is with Republicans this year... was there some weird space-time continum issue that sent them back to 1980.

Back to the 80s? What are you talking about?

The Terminator holding a copy of Back to the Future?.

[J. J.]

Super Mario World was from 1991, dipstick.

It looked like a video tape to me.

[J. J.]

The race is widening, not tightening.  The polls are looking good.

Actually the RCP measure shows the race tightening, but not by much.

[J. J.]

I wonder if anyone would care to explain this oddity within Gallup today...

Registered Voters - 2,774 interviews
Likely Voters (Expanded) - 2,271 interviews
Likely Voters (Traditional) - 2,340 interviews

You know what this makes Sam Spade think...

Since I don't focus on sample size, what does it make you think?

The race is widening, not tightening.  The polls are looking good.

Actually the RCP measure shows the race tightening, but not by much.

How do you figure that when it shows a 5.0 lead for Obama yesterday, and a 5.3 lead for him today?  Hmmm?? 

As usual, you are wrong.  I will assume that you are simply ignorant/poorly informed here, and not intentionally lying so as to benefit your political leanings.  Either way, you suck!

The RCP composite is what I was referring to.

[J. J.]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yeah, me too.  And it just went up more for Obama as they added in some polls that came out today.

Now it is up to 5.8 points up for Obama.  This is definitely trending towards Obama then, and away from a race that is tightening.  This race is widening now.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/

Is there some other page that you are looking at?  Because from what I see there, you seem to be even wronger than before.

fb

This one.

Diageo Hotline Poll - 10/20

Obama 47% (-1)
McCain 42% (+1)

GW Battleground - 10/20

Obama 49% (nc)
McCain 45% (nc)

RCP has its closest margin in weeks - 4.8 Obama.

How do you figure that when it shows a 5.0 lead for Obama yesterday, and a 5.3 lead for him today?  Hmmm?? 

As usual, you are wrong.  I will assume that you are simply ignorant/poorly informed here, and not intentionally lying so as to benefit your political leanings.  Either way, you suck!

Shhhh.  You're becoming a troll.

Becoming?

[J. J.]

The race is widening, not tightening.  The polls are looking good.

Actually the RCP measure shows the race tightening, but not by much.

How do you figure that when it shows a 5.0 lead for Obama yesterday, and a 5.3 lead for him today?  Hmmm?? 

As usual, you are wrong.  I will assume that you are simply ignorant/poorly informed here, and not intentionally lying so as to benefit your political leanings.  Either way, you suck!

Shhhh.  You're becoming a troll.

He's always been a troll, but the troll is right.

It's also now +5.8.  Somehow I'm trusting realclearpolitics.com more on the realclearpolitics.com average than something Peper11 posted 10 hours ago (call me zany, call me nuts.)

It might have changed since I, or Pepper posted.  I'm see no clear trends at this point, however.

[J. J.]

I don't understand why you didn't check RCP for yourself before correcting someone, then.

Because we've been discussing it right before I posted, it 4 hours ago.  At that point, there was a slight closing.

[J. J.]

He's always been a troll, but the troll is right.

It's also now +5.8.  Somehow I'm trusting realclearpolitics.com more on the realclearpolitics.com average than something Peper11 posted 10 hours ago (call me zany, call me nuts.)

I don't view the RCP average as inerrant truth.  The 7 day trend is towards closing, even if a few outlier polls are bumping the average up a bit in the short term.

It was closing last week, but it stopped Friday or Saturday.  Some of it was pro-Obama sample dropping out of Gallup.