Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[J. J.]

A 7 point bounce.... not bad....if McCain gets a 5 point bounce, Obama will be ahead by 3, instead of 1. This will mean that it will still be Obama's race to lose.

You wish.  Don't forget that Reagan was the underdog before the debates.  I don't know how the debates will go, but the election is by far over.

Agreed; however, I assume you agree that Obama does have an edge, yes?

Sure, I don't think anyone is arguing with that.

When you factor out all the bouncing that is/will probably be going on, maybe not.  September 11-15 will be telling.

[J. J.]

Sunday - August 31, 2008

Obama - 48% (-1)
McCain - 42% (+1)

So he got a three to six point bounce. Not bad for McCain.

And, it's the weekend, probably a bit inflated for Obama in this poll.  Palin still isn't completely in the mix, but it looks like it is favorable.

[J. J.]

Tuesday, September 2, 2008

Obama 50% (+1)
McCain 42% (-1)

Where's the Palin bounce?

It's the hurricane. Republicans aren't home to answer the phones.

In a national poll... there arent that many republicans in the gulf states... remember, even at their max, their only 60% of four states... not exactly a big deal.

Still, 2pt shift is small enough to just be an artifact of Labor day polling

Or a weekend one on this poll.  It might have been an early bounce for Palin that left.  As I've said, wait for the 15th.

[J. J.]

Both Gallup and Rasmussen show Obama at 50% for the first time. Good job Sarah.

Let's wait a bid.  The early ones showed just the opposite, and we do have severa days worth showing Obama's numbers dropping after the Biden selection.

[J. J.]

Both Gallup and Rasmussen show Obama at 50% for the first time. Good job Sarah.

Let's wait a bid.  The early ones showed just the opposite, and we do have severa days worth showing Obama's numbers dropping after the Biden selection.

That was a temporary reaction from Clinton supporters, that was to be expected. Bill and Hilary's forceful and enthusiastic endorsements of Obama at the convention pushed a lot of those same angered Clinton supporters back to Obama, where I think they're likely to stay (especially after McCain's insulting attempt at pandering to them with Palin).

One day, or even two (considering there is a convention bump) is not enough to make the judgment (it took me four days for Biden).

[J. J.]

Wednesday - September 3, 2008

Obama - 49% (-1)
McCain - 43% (+1)

Well that's no fun. I guess the bounce is starting to wear off a little.

Bingo, which why I've been saying wait until 9/15 or so.  There will probably be a GOP bounce.

[J. J.]

Only 50% of women are Pro Choice and 43% are Pro Life? I wish.

Yeah, that's pretty absurd.

It depends how you define the terms.

[J. J.]

Still no bump from the GOP convention.

Don't count your chckens and hope that there won't be

^^^^^^^^^^^

[J. J.]

It seems like Obama is holding up about as well as you could expect, so far.

No, that is only a one day sample after Palin's speech.

Monday for the bump, but check out the numbers for Thursday or Friday of next week.  We'll have some idea at this point.

[J. J.]

Ya, I agree with JJ on this point as to what and when to check.  Tuesday is also as good as Monday, really.

Strangely enough, I also do agree with him that there appears to be a continual mid-week/weekend bias for the two candidates, though I really have no clue how important it is.

The weekend/weekday bounce seems limited to Gallup.  I think, based on that, it is their sample selection.

[J. J.]

Question for those who know the history better than me: Has any candidate ever won an election in which they were tied or behind immediately after their own convention? I'm quite sure it's never happened, except possibly for Truman in 1948 (when polling was obviously not at the level of accuracy it is today).

I'd think this is basically McCain's goal at this point as to what kind of a bounce he needs.

I think it will be had to measure this.  Obama was tied, or down by 1-2 going into this.  He was up by between 0-8 points after the DNC, when Palin was announced and RNC started.

I think Reagan was behind in a number of polls after his convention. That said, the polls that year were very similar to this one with both candidates in the mid to low forties. I believe going into the debates Carter was up something like 47-43.

Reagan was at 45, Carter at 29, after the 1980 RNC; Carter had 39, Reagan 38, after the DNC.  It was, if anything, less clear than 2008.

[J. J.]

Infomania: last few days were Obama +1, Obama +7 and Obama +4.

Sounds about right.

We had the CBS poll at +8 on 9/1.

[J. J.]

It's the bounce.  It might actually get bigger by a point or two. 

We have to wait until mid to late week.

If McCain is up by three next weekend, I'll be overjoyed.

[J. J.]

Well, that's a decent bounce. The next couple of days could be even better for him. No reason to believe it'll last at this point though.

Didn't you express the belief that McCain would still be behind about 48 hours ago?

[J. J.]

At least I'll admit when I'm wrong.

True. You did after NH too, yet J. J. never owned up to his retarded babble about Wisconsin.

It look like they were closing.  Hey, I said it, PPP had it right.

[J. J.]

At least I'll admit when I'm wrong.

True. You did after NH too, yet J. J. never owned up to his retarded babble about Wisconsin.

He sure misses the mark for a MENSA dude....

Expected a four point lead on one of the polls and got it.  I don't know what more you want.

I can use smaller words if it can help you Epsilons.  

[J. J.]

At least I'll admit when I'm wrong.

True. You did after NH too, yet J. J. never owned up to his retarded babble about Wisconsin.

He sure misses the mark for a MENSA dude....

Expected a four point lead on one of the polls and got it.  I don't know what more you want.

I can use smaller words if it can help you Epsilons.  

Epsilons...hehe.... You are funny though. Fu cked up like me.

I am the guy who listed Palin as a bad choice for VP however. 

[J. J.]

Obviously very good news for McCain.

Worth noting that Carter got a big bounce out of the Dem convention in 1980 and had the lead immediately thereafter, as well.

Carter's "big bounce" was 1 point on Gallup, 39 to 38.  I checked the numbers a few days ago

[J. J.]

I wish we held our convention after theirs. Fu ck tradition.

I doubt this accounts for any real difference. So McCain gets a lead for a week or two. Big whoop.

Two weeks is where you start getting problems.

[J. J.]

I wish we held our convention after theirs. Fu ck tradition.

I doubt this accounts for any real difference. So McCain gets a lead for a week or two. Big whoop.

Two weeks is where you start getting problems.

If McCain is ahead or with end 2% in two week, you can count Sen. Obama out. Sen. McCain well do very well in the debates and Sen. Obama will not.

I wouldn't even go that far.  There would be a sense that Obama can't, not isn't winning.

I doubt if that would happen though it is possible.

[J. J.]

Monday, September 8

McCain - 49% (+1)
Obama - 44% (-1)

Slightly better than expected.

[J. J.]

Monday, September 8

McCain - 49% (+1)
Obama - 44% (-1)

Slightly better than expected.

Do you pick up your paycheck from the local RNC campaign office, or do they mail it to you?

McCain's lead will probably evaporate as the week wears on, though he should have some residual bounce until the debates.

Considering I expected a four point lead, slightly better than expected.  You see the number 5 is a bit higher than the number 4.

"Boy, Obama is really walking away with this one."    (Ah, that is called sarcasm.)

Monday, September 8

McCain - 49% (+1)
Obama - 44% (-1)

Slightly better than expected.

Really? Not as bad as I was expecting...

I called it a 4 point bounce on one of the polls.  It's slightly better.

[J. J.]

That sample was weaker for McCain than yesterday's... maybe even Friday too (I'm too lazy to do the math.)


John McCain is collapsing

The bounce is probably going, but this isn't a collapse by any stretch of the imagination.

[J. J.]

Obviously very good news for McCain.

Worth noting that Carter got a big bounce out of the Dem convention in 1980 and had the lead immediately thereafter, as well.

Carter's "big bounce" was 1 point on Gallup, 39 to 38.  I checked the numbers a few days ago

Gallup's own website says a 10 point bounce.

I checked the Gallup poll of mid August. quoted in Presidential Elections and American Politics third edition, 1984, p. 161.

You are looking at the GOP bounce disappearing, because after the RNC Reagan was up by 16 points (R 45, C 29).  After the DNC, Carter led, 39 to 38, or +1.

[J. J.]

Well, I'm assuming that's the 10 point Carter bounce Gallup is referring to. Going from 29 to 39.

You're right that it's far from the same situation as this year, just pointing out that incumbent party candidates can still get big convention bounces and lead in the polls even when their party is insanely unpopular.

The thing is, neither Carter nor the Democrats were insanely unpopular at that point.  It was just a post GOP convention bounce versus the DNC bounce.