Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[J. J.]

Sunday - August 17, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 44% / 47%, including leaners (+1, +1)
McCain: 42% / 45%, including leaners (+1, nc)

which is better than yesterday

Somebody is nervous...

The race possibly got tighter; ask me Wednesday or Thursday.

[J. J.]

Sunday - August 17, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 44% / 47%, including leaners (+1, +1)
McCain: 42% / 45%, including leaners (+1, nc)

which is better than yesterday

Somebody is nervous...

The race possibly got tighter; ask me Wednesday or Thursday.

because we can't figure it out for ourselves.  we need J.J. to interpret the polls properly for us.

seems like it's tightened to me, already.

No, I'm saying, I don't know.  I'm not calling it tightening yet. 

Once again, I'd like someone to explain why this illustrious "weekend bounce" hasn't appeared recently.

The weekend bounce appears in Gallup and not Rasmussen, which is why I've referred to it being something related how Gallup draws its sample.  For some reason Gallup seems to oversample/undersample Obama/McCain on weekends, respectively, or  oversample/undersample McCain/Obama mid week, respectively.  Take your pick.

[J. J.]

I would argue a tightening from June (maybe into early July), but being very stable since then.

Elcorazon, I said the race wasn't "tightening," but I did not say the race wasn't tight. I'd say zero to three on Rasumssen, but I think it's been there for at least a month.

Not a runaway, but a close race.

[J. J.]

I would argue a tightening from June (maybe into early July), but being very stable since then.

Elcorazon, I said the race wasn't "tightening," but I did not say the race wasn't tight. I'd say zero to three on Rasumssen, but I think it's been there for at least a month.

Not a runaway, but a close race.

the only way it could be much closer is if it were dead even, swinging from -2 to +2 from day to day with no discernable leader.  Obama's lead has been wafer thin for weeks now, at least based on these tracking polls.

I still give the edge to Obama, but this month, that margin is razor thin.  Now, it got tighter from June and I expect a convention bounce for both candidates.  9/15 plus is when I'll start looking.

[J. J.]

Someone create a longterm graph, for both pollsters. I guess it exists to a statistically significant degree - though not as strongly as certain people on this thread make it out, obviously - but I'd prefer to know for sure.

I've been keeping a record of the polls since early June and this is my little graph with a ten day moving average line darkened for each of the four lines:


I just put in the dates for all of August so ignore the average after the thin lines end, it's meaningless.  I'm just too lazy to make the graph fit right.

BTW:  Nice job with the graph.

[J. J.]

Friday, August 22, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 47%, including leaners (nc, -1)
McCain: 43% / 46%, including leaners (+1, nc)

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable, (nc)
McCain: 55% favorable, (nc)

[J. J.]

Well I don't expect McCain's small bounce to last for long.

It's not a "bounce," but a long term tightening from July.

[J. J.]

I expect a 5 point or greater Obama lead by Monday.

QFT

Actually, the announcement bounce, if any won't even start until tomorrow.

[J. J.]

Might be a bounce going on here.  No idea how great it'll be.

[J.J.]too soon to tell.  I'll let you know later in the week [/J.J.]

lolololololol

I just let you know on Gallup.  Obama has weakened.  It has tightened again.

There will be a convention bounce, but it won't last long.

[J. J.]

Might be a bounce going on here.  No idea how great it'll be.

[J.J.]too soon to tell.  I'll let you know later in the week [/J.J.]

lolololololol

I just let you know on Gallup.  Obama has weakened.  It has tightened again.

There will be a convention bounce, but it won't last long.

Well, obviously not, since the Republican convention follows right on its heels.

Quite, but I'll give a prediction, the GOP bounce will be higher. 

Really, prior to the convention, there has been erosion of Obama, to the point where it is even. 

Start looking at the national polls on September 10-11.

[J. J.]

No convention bounce yet, that polling probably was conducted before the convention started.

There should have been a slight bounce from naming a Veep.

[J. J.]

No convention bounce yet, that polling probably was conducted before the convention started.

There should have been a slight bounce from naming a Veep.

Not really, alot of people don't know who Joe Biden is, unless you live in DE/PA or a political jukie..

But enough do that it should be a decline, plus it removes the uncertainty.

[J. J.]

Wednesday - August 27, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

McCain: 44% / 47%, including leaners (NC, +1)
Obama: 44% / 46%, including leaners (NC, NC)

Favorability

McCain: 56% favorable  (-1)
Obama: 53% favorable  (NC)

This is not good news for Obama.  There should should be some movement toward him at this point.  The Clinton's and Obama's may make that difference.  Maybe Gallup will show it.

[J. J.]

Wednesday - August 27, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

McCain: 44% / 47%, including leaners (NC, +1)
Obama: 44% / 46%, including leaners (NC, NC)

Favorability

McCain: 56% favorable  (-1)
Obama: 53% favorable  (NC)

This is not good news for Obama.  There should should be some movement toward him at this point.  The Clinton's and Obama's may make that difference.  Maybe Gallup will show it.

Be patient.  It isn't too earlier for the VP thing, however.

Biden was wrong choice, nationally.  That is obvious.  Obama should be at least holding at this point; he's not.

He is looking weaker as this thing rolls on.

[J. J.]

Biden was wrong choice, nationally.  That is obvious.  Obama should be at least holding at this point; he's not.

I think Biden as a name didn't get Obama anything off the starting blocks, and may have hurt him by virtue of not being a woman. However, Biden in action has yet to make a mark. Whether he will or not, we'll see, but he was chosen for both his credentials and his fight.

Biden was not that unknown. 

If you are presidential candidate, you've just announce your (not particularly controversial) VP candidate, you are are in day two of your convention, and your numbers are dropping, you may have a problem.  The only one that I think of where something even close to this has happened, where the nomination had been decided, was possibly Bush in 1992.  I don't think his numbers dropped, actually, just stayed the same.

Obama can save it, but the Stadium Speech is already being derided for the setting.  It may work out, but the signs so far are NOT favorable for Obama.

[J. J.]

They weren't taking polls during day two of the convention in 1992, JJ.  And technically, this poll only includes day one of the convention, not day two.

The only conventions I recall with no bounce after the convention were McGovern 1972 and Bush 1992, though I may be forgetting something.  Whatever.  

I note that part of the reason why McGovern got no bounce was because his nominating speech occurred at 2AM.  Much like Obama's VP announcement.

I'm even referring to going into the convention.  One poll, I'd say it had to be a bad sample size, but we're seeing with both Gallup and the 'bots.

I'm expecting a bounce, still.  I was also expecting some improvement in Obama's numbers at this point.  Not a lot, but at least slightly better numbers. 

[J. J.]

Obama can save it, but the Stadium Speech is already being derided for the setting.  It may work out, but the signs so far are NOT favorable for Obama.

Isn't what a man says more than important than where he says it?

Dave

Staging helps a great deal. 

Mike Deaver said, of his work with Reagan, "I just put him in good lighting."  We can even go back to the Nixon Kennedy debates.  Nixon arguably "won," but JFK's visuals were so much better that it moved voters.

[J. J.]

The numbers should be going up, and they are.

[J. J.]

Up and then down.

[J. J.]

4-6 point bounce, post convention.

[J. J.]

So, he was tied in Gallup and one ahead in Rassy. He is now +8 and +4. That's an average of 5.5. I guess that's better than Kerry's. McCain will have to have a 6 point bump to stay in this.

Would have been greater if not for Palin, maybe +10 and +6. Of course, that's just speculation, but the final day sample is definitely "polluted".

We need to wait until Monday or Tuesday.

[J. J.]

So, he was tied in Gallup and one ahead in Rassy. He is now +8 and +4. That's an average of 5.5. I guess that's better than Kerry's. McCain will have to have a 6 point bump to stay in this.

Would have been greater if not for Palin, maybe +10 and +6. Of course, that's just speculation, but the final day sample is definitely "polluted".

We need to wait until Monday or Tuesday.

Umm, no, we don't. We already know what happened.

Ah, yes we do.  We have one positive thing for Obama (at least it should be), the Convention.  It will take two or three more days for that to completely register in the polls.

We know that McCain might have something that is positive, Palin.  Maybe, maybe not.  We know that the full impact won't really start until today's numbers and we won't have a strong idea until the post Palin numbers get in on Tuesday.  We can't really tell until Wednesday, at best.

[J. J.]

It won't be until tomorrow that we have an entirely unpolluted sample that measures the effects of the Obama speech and the Palin announcement, but if this trend continues I must say that the whole VP announcement process was handled by McCain's people as best as it could be, at least according to Rasmussen. 

The portents are looking good, but it is too early to tell.  I'd actually say Tuesday.

[J. J.]

Where is the Palin bump that we were told we would see?

Here is poll from about two weeks ago, before the choice of Biden and the DNC:

Sunday - August 17, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 44% / 47%, including leaners (+1, +1)
McCain: 42% / 45%, including leaners (+1, nc)

Over all that time, Obama has gained 1 point, after what amounted to a major offensive.

[J. J.]

.  I know it makes me sound pro-Obama here, but I've recently seen arguments that McCain should be significantly further ahead on this forum than he is currently posting in the daily tracking.  Why are we so prone to mimicking campaigns' own low-expectations game here on this forum? 

If you said two weeks ago that on September 1, Obama would only be ahead by three on Rasmussen, all polls were showing either a decline or stability for Obama, and that after he made his VP pick, his numbers would drop, I would have said you said you were completely insane.