Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[J. J.]

10/23/08

Obama   52%
McCain    45%

Biggest Obama lead in two weeks.

As I've pointed out several times, McCain has been 44-46 and Obama 50-52 every single day for over a month now. Its a stable race.

I'm looking at movement across polls.  I'm not seeing it, at least with the lesser polls.  Maybe Gallup or TIPP will show something.

[J. J.]

It's not being matched by Gallup or TIPP, as of yet.  Interesting.  I expect it to be.

[J. J.]

There could have been a bad Obama sample that dropped and Rasmussen is just playing catch up.  I really want to see Gallup and TIPP.

[J. J.]

TIPP is trash. I'm inclined to believe this is an outlier, because nothing really happened that would swing the race in the past 24 hours.

TIPP was 3rd in 2000 and 1st in 2004.  So far, were at Rasmussen gains McCain, Gallup holding traditional, Gallup expanded gain for Obama.

Are they all catching the same thing at the same time?  Right now, it looks like 5.5-6.0 race.

[J. J.]

Tuesday - October 28:

Obama - 51 (nc)
McCain - 46 (nc)

Later today, new polling data will be released for Arkansas, Mississippi, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.

There must have been a SHOCKING sample for Obama before - but it *looks* like a blip.

I'm interested in all the polls out of these states, haven't heard much out of AR for a while.

There was an AR poll a few days ago, McCain had a healthy lead.

[J. J.]

I would be very happy if Obama reached 51% and won by at least 4%.

It's looking good for Obama, but it's going to be close.

[J. J.]

Saturday November 1, 2008

Obama 51% (nc)
McCain 46% (-1)

That's in line with the rest of the polls.

I can very easily believe that PA is trending more Republican in this election.

[J. J.]

That's in line with the rest of the polls.

I can very easily believe that PA is trending more Republican in this election.

If PA goes for Obama by a greater percentage than the national PV, will you still be singing the same tune??? I can't remember the last time that happened.

No, but I'm expecting it to be closer.

Some of it is race.

[J. J.]

Sunday November 2, 2008

Obama 51% (nc)
McCain 46% (nc)

Good enough...

McCain has to make up 2.5 points per day in the next two days. Good luck with that one.

if you just look at today's sample...it's more like 1.5 per day....

still tough...but I don't really like it.

Or you have a 4 point Bradley.

[J. J.]

Sunday November 2, 2008

Obama 51% (nc)
McCain 46% (nc)

Good enough...

McCain has to make up 2.5 points per day in the next two days. Good luck with that one.

if you just look at today's sample...it's more like 1.5 per day....

still tough...but I don't really like it.

Or you have a 4 point Bradley.

The remaining superdelegates will split 3-1 for Clinton, too.

And Obama was overpolling in NC and would only win by 4. And there was a good chance Clinton's delegates would stage a convention walkout. And the Florida and Michigan Democrat parties would fight tooth and nail to have their delegates fully seated as voted so Obama would just have to grab as much of the uncommitted as he could.

Are you saying that NC will go Obama?

[J. J.]

Sunday November 2, 2008

Obama 51% (nc)
McCain 46% (nc)

Good enough...

McCain has to make up 2.5 points per day in the next two days. Good luck with that one.

if you just look at today's sample...it's more like 1.5 per day....

still tough...but I don't really like it.

Or you have a 4 point Bradley.

The remaining superdelegates will split 3-1 for Clinton, too.

And Obama was overpolling in NC and would only win by 4. And there was a good chance Clinton's delegates would stage a convention walkout. And the Florida and Michigan Democrat parties would fight tooth and nail to have their delegates fully seated as voted so Obama would just have to grab as much of the uncommitted as he could.

Are you saying that NC will go Obama?

I was referring your absolutely horrendous NC primary prediction, which anyone in MENSA would've been able to figure out from the rest of the post, which is conveniently ignored.

Just asking.  So you are not predicting NC for Obama?

[J. J.]

Yep. And Gallup, once again, sucked completely. That firm seems to have really, really lost it.

The "gold standard" no more.

[J. J.]

Forty percent (40%) of U.S. voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is handling his new role as president-elect. Thirty-two percent (32%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a net rating of eight on the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Approval Index.

By way of comparison, 13% of voters Strongly Approve of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president. Forty-nine percent (49%) Strongly Disapprove. That gives the current President a -36 on the Presidential Approval Index.

In addition to the 40% who Strongly Approve of Obama’s performance so far, another 12% Somewhat Approve. That brings his total approval to 52%, an unsurprising figure since the Democrat earned 52% of the vote on Tuesday night.

Isn't it a bit too hard to form an opinion after just two days.

[J. J.]

Forty percent (40%) of U.S. voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is handling his new role as president-elect. Thirty-two percent (32%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a net rating of eight on the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Approval Index.

By way of comparison, 13% of voters Strongly Approve of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president. Forty-nine percent (49%) Strongly Disapprove. That gives the current President a -36 on the Presidential Approval Index.

In addition to the 40% who Strongly Approve of Obama’s performance so far, another 12% Somewhat Approve. That brings his total approval to 52%, an unsurprising figure since the Democrat earned 52% of the vote on Tuesday night.

Isn't it a bit too hard to form an opinion after just two days.

You've somehow managed to map the next 4 yours.

"After you, the deluge"

Yawn.

No, I looked long term trends, not poll numbers.

[J. J.]

Worth looking at a year later:

48% Favorable
   

51% Unfavorable

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history

And a number of the same posters are watching in awe a conservative Republican at least coming close taking the seat held by Ted Kennedy.