your politics aside...answer honestly, will obama's campaign survive..

[J. J.]

Very damaging, but survivable.

[J. J.]

I think you have to look at the schedule as well.  Obama has had two bad press weeks.  It may be another five weeks.  Then there is the PA Primary, which might be a bigger loss than anticipated.  How will that effect IN and NC?  May 6 might be the crucial day.

Obama can survive even a bad loss in PA.  I'm not sure he could survive even moderate losses in IN and NC if that occurs. 

Even if he holds, WV is next, a week later.  We have FL/MI that might be popping up.  There could a string of Obama losses, and I don't know if he survives those the way Clinton did.

[J. J.]

Very damaging, but survivable.

Depends on what you mean by "damaging" and "survivable".

"Damaging," see my previous post, and include takes a hit in his poll numbers, which is more than a 3-4 day thing; it might also include a permanent reduction.  Survivable means he can recover by mid to late May.

[J. J.]

So, it really depends on whether he can re-gain momentum or whether he will quit by mid-may.

I doubt that he will leave by mid-May.  It really depends on May 6 and how big his loss  is in PA.

By May 15, Hillary's net gain could be 50-60 elected delegates if Obama is really damaged.  Also, any movement at that time might start influencing the Super Delegates.

I've said that Obama has had three chances to end this, NH, Super Duper Monster Tuesday, and March 4.  All three times he's failed.  May 6-15 might be Hillary's chance to end it.

[J. J.]

Very damaging, but survivable.

Depends on what you mean by "damaging" and "survivable".

"Damaging," see my previous post, and include takes a hit in his poll numbers, which is more than a 3-4 day thing; it might also include a permanent reduction.  Survivable means he can recover by mid to late May.

can he survive the generals?

It doesn't make any difference if he's not the nominee.  I think the Wright Affair would be slightly damaging in the general. however, but far from fatal.

[J. J.]

the wright affair?

i say no.  if it doesnt do him in in the primary...the issue will dog at him all through the general campaign.

agreed.

I don't think it's fatal, by a long shot.  Damaging however, and may cost him the nomination.

[J. J.]

the wright affair?

i say no.  if it doesnt do him in in the primary...the issue will dog at him all through the general campaign.

agreed.

I don't think it's fatal, by a long shot.  Damaging however, and may cost him the nomination.

....and because Obama will never be caught by any other metric, if HillDawg wins by the supers, we are looking at a 35 or 45 state win by Micky C and this will guarantee that the democratic party will disband by 2016, if not the very next election. At least, there will be a sizeable center-left party that will split  the vote with the dems, giving McCain another major victory.

I think that this is possibly the worst post I've read.  This infighting is no worse than the D's in 1968 and 1972 and the R's in 1976. 

[J. J.]

I know that....but the country is in really bad shape under the incumbent and the democratic party is at its weakest.

Those two statements are virtually contradictory.    If the county is in "really bad shape." the opposition should have a very easy time. 

Still, my "pigeon entrails" prediction was for a Republican victory in 2008.  "After us, the deluge."

[J. J.]

I know that....but the country is in really bad shape under the incumbent and the democratic party is at its weakest.

Those two statements are virtually contradictory.    If the county is in "really bad shape." the opposition should have a very easy time. 

Still, my "pigeon entrails" prediction was for a Republican victory in 2008.  "After us, the deluge."

They are....that's why I expect something very profound and unprecedented to happen. So, the goat you sacrificed could...COULD....mean that McCain will simply be the last straw for the country that gave him the benefit of the doubt...or it could easily mean that his succesor will finish what Nixon-Reagan began. by 2015, Republican registration will be 5% more than the Dems for the first time in 100 years, the court will have overturned Roe and brought back Lochner, the GOP will have 250 congressmen and 58 senators and we will be in Iran and Syria. 

I actually think the Democrats, with Clinton or Obama as the nominee, is stronger than you depict and the country is in better shape than you depict, though both could improve.

[J. J.]

When even Drudge's main headline on the saga is 'Obama decries racial rhetoric', I think you know this is being over played on this forum.

The only good news is that this get into SNL yet.  I'm waiting for "Weekend Update."

[J. J.]

As for Obama...I think he'll be just fine.  I like the man.  I hope its Obama v. McCain, two honorable men (despite what certain detractors on these boards will say about them), perhaps we'll for once get an honest discussion of the issues.  Barring some hanky panky/cheap crap by either of them, I won't mind who wins.

I think his I didn't realize he said these things comment does strike at his sincerity.  Obama was a member of this church for 20 years.  Maybe he wasn't paying attention, but that doesn't seem too likely.

[J. J.]

Is there any evidence that Wright was making these comments in his sermons from 1991-2000?
I've yet to see any.

The last one was December 2007.  2001 to 2007, don't you think that is long enough?

Apparently, he did have a rather long standing association with Farrakhan, dating back to trip to Libya in 1984 and making favorable comments about him in a magazine article  in 2007 (Wright's daughter was the editor).

[J. J.]

There were videos from 01' and 03' mostly. There was one from 07'. Were are the one's from 04,05 and 06.

Write the church and get them.

I think the situation here is not that this was not an offhand comment made once 20 years ago.

[J. J.]

There were videos from 01' and 03' mostly. There was one from 07'. Were are the one's from 04,05 and 06.

Write the church and get them.

I think the situation here is not that this was not an offhand comment made once 20 years ago.

Oh I'm sure people have already poured over these videos. I wonder how many are out there. If they reviewed hundreds and only 5 had offensive comments then it would be a case of "flying off the handle". Just speculation.

Would you prefer 20 years of comments and some photos of Wright and Farrakhan?    I'm sure someone could arrange it (and probably is).

[J. J.]

There were videos from 01' and 03' mostly. There was one from 07'. Were are the one's from 04,05 and 06.

Write the church and get them.

I think the situation here is not that this was not an offhand comment made once 20 years ago.

Oh I'm sure people have already poured over these videos. I wonder how many are out there. If they reviewed hundreds and only 5 had offensive comments then it would be a case of "flying off the handle". Just speculation.

Would you prefer 20 years of comments and some photos of Wright and Farrakhan?    I'm sure someone could arrange it (and probably is).

I'm sure they would have at least put all the comments on youtube with any offensive content.

There might be copyright issues or someone might be even as I type.

[J. J.]

Apparantly there was some foreknowledge:

In his 1993 memoir "Dreams from My Father," Obama recounts in vivid detail his first meeting with Wright in 1985. The pastor warned the community activist that getting involved with Trinity might turn off other black clergy because of the church’s radical reputation.

When Obama sought his own church community, he felt increasingly at home at Trinity…

http://sweetness-light.com/archive/obamas-pastor-called-911-wake-up-call-from-people-of-color

[J. J.]

This "news story" is dying out already.

You just had to revive this dying thread, didn't you.

But the damage has been done.

[J. J.]

This "news story" is dying out already.

You just had to revive this dying thread, didn't you.

But the damage has been done.

The polls don't show that.

Clinton seems to gaining in PA.  There is long term damage, largely because of way Obama handled it, not so much from the remarks.

[J. J.]

This "news story" is dying out already.

You just had to revive this dying thread, didn't you.

But the damage has been done.

The polls don't show that.

Clinton seems to gaining in PA.  There is long term damage, largely because of way Obama handled it, not so much from the remarks.

Forgive me for being skeptical of your "seemings" after Wisconsin, but where, in fact, are you seeing solid evidence of Clinton gaining in Pennsylvania?

Yeah, I wondered that as well.

It was Rasmussen, but it showed a 5 point jump, which is kinda unusual for Obama.

[J. J.]

It was Rasmussen, but it showed a 5 point jump, which is kinda unusual for Obama.

The last Rasmussen poll was on 3/12, before the scandal broke.  It was a MoE gain for Obama since the 3/5 poll.  I'd really suggest using Dave's nifty polls list in the future, since you seem to have a lot of trouble recalling polls as being anything other than favorable to your preconceptions.

That was the one I was looking at.  I know that there was an eirlier one that showed a 15% point gap (which I thought would close, BTW).  When will the next round be out?

[J. J.]

It should be obvious at this point that the Wright Affair is not going away.  Damaging, though I still don't think it is fatal.