I took a look at the amount the final RCP average was off the actual results in 2016 in some of these states. This is what I found:
FL +1.0 R
IN +8.3 R
MO +7.5 R
TX -3.0 R
AZ -0.5 R
NV -3.2 R
If this were added/subtracted from the current RCP results, the Republicans would take IN, MO, TX and AZ (by 0.2). The Democrats would take FL and NV.
I looked at these numbers earlier... but for a different reason. Since elections tend to have a pendulum swing effect... I was wondering if polling models would over-compensate for 2016 polling errors. If so, this would lead to polls in IN & MO being tilted a bit too Republican this year... and polls in NV & TX to a lesser extent being slightly tilted Dem. Polls in AZ & FL staying about the same.
If over-correcting is the case- all of these Senate races really are razor edge close this year (other than Texas... but Texas has its own polling challenges this year in trying to gauge the Beto effect). The states potentially most affected by over-correcting would be IN & MO, since they were outside the margin of error in 2016. (If an over-correcting occurred, polls could indicate that IN & MO would go Dem this year).
Has J.J. ever heard of "confirmation bias"? Polling in 2016 was not weighed for education which resulted in the infamous underpolling of Mr Trump. Reading pollsters like Siena helps understand the world around you.
Siena et al have corrected their method - and are likely poised to underestimate the Democrats this time.
The hypothesis of DataGuy is much more plausible, as Undecided voters are primarily undecided about re-electing the incumbent. Usually, they decide to give someone they think to know a second chance. Negative qualities are remembered 10 times better than positive qualities, unless you know things about someone beforehand(advantage for the incumbent) and immunizes your belief system against negativity.
I'm not making a prediction, just looking at the numbers. My prediction is different.
I would also note that, if this would be the result, AZ would go Democratic today.
That said, I'll treat +2 Heller in NV differently than I would Hawley +2 in MO.
