From the sh**t you can't make up pile

[J. J.]

JFern, you've done it again!

ROTFLMAO!

Do you know the difference between a 'rolodex' and a 'rolex'?

Its about Time(ex) you learned to read.

He apparently thinks that watches have addresses on them:

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[J. J.]

Here is story:

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Ah, where is the word "watch?"  (It does appear in some of the comments, as a verb.)

[J. J.]

This 'misunderstanding' by jfern is a classic.

Very.  And he wonders why nobody believes him.

[J. J.]

This 'misunderstanding' by jfern is a classic.

Very.  And he wonders why nobody believes him.

Someone had mentioned a watch and linked to it. So it's not a watch after all, who cares?
At least I don't argue that 940 heads and 60 tails aren't statistically significant for 9 months.

Why should we believe what you have to say about anything if you cannot even realize that watches don't contain addresses.  

Actually, you do argue it, since you've just raised again.  Of course the answers can be found here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=20985.0

and here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=20699.0

not to mention, here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=21088.15

Oh, and of course here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=23064.0

JFRAUD, I don't even have to call you an idiot; people can determine it from your posts.  Please however, for the sake of the human race, don't reproduce.

[J. J.]

A fair coin will not produce those numbers.

Ah, but that isn't question, in a statistical sense.  It is, can you say with 95% certainty that, using 940 heads out of 1000 tosses, that the coin will come up heads?

Interestingly, I've JFRAUD these two questions and still have not gotten an answer.

1. Okay, based on the 940 heads out of 1000 can you claim, with 95% certainty, that the coin comes up heads?  

2. Can you claim that the coin is behaving differently than expected values?

It's not a trick question.  Tweed, you want to try it?

[J. J.]

It would not be significant because it would prove the coin is unfair, weighted to one side, etc.  A fair coin will not produce those numbers.  We're just going to keep going in circles here so I doubt I'll post again about coins.

That's what statistically significant difference is all about.

No, that's what probabilities are all about.  Want to take a shot at the questions?

[J. J.]

A fair coin will not produce those numbers.

Ah, but that isn't question, in a statistical sense.  It is, can you say with 95% certainty that, using 940 heads out of 1000 tosses, that the coin will come up heads?

Interestingly, I've JFRAUD these two questions and still have not gotten an answer.

1. Okay, based on the 940 heads out of 1000 can you claim, with 95% certainty, that the coin comes up heads? 

2. Can you claim that the coin is behaving differently than expected values?

It's not a trick question.  Tweed, you want to try it?

I'll go no and yes.  The coin technically will still have a 50-50 chance of landing on either side.  For the second question, I believe you can.  The coin is expected to land on heads 500 times, and it lands heads 940 times.  That is behavior that deviates from that of what is expected.

Gold star for Boss Tweed.  :-)

Okay, now which of these used two questions is used to determine statistical significance?

[J. J.]

I believe the second one does.  Not as confident on this one as a I was on the first two.

The second one doesn't, but it does show something else.  Here is the site:  http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm#terminology

Jfern makes a mistake that we are looking to see if the coin behaves as a fair coin.  In everything we've been looking at, it been to determine if the coin comes up enough to say that we're confident, in a statistical sense, that the coin behaves in a certain way.

Think of it this way.  We have a coin that we think is weighted to always come up heads.  From a statistical standpoint, we could say that if the came up heads 960 out of 1000, but we couldn't say that if it came up 940 out of 1000. 

[J. J.]

LOL at J.J. continuing to argue that 940 heads and 60 tails are not statistically significantly different from that of a fair coin.

LOL at jfern refusing to answer the two question JJ posed to him.

They are not trick questions.  I'm not attempting to be tricky here.

Alcon, what is precisely the number of times I've raised this?  I'll answer that for you.  Once.  I offered Jfern a full thread to discuss it.  He usually ends by not answering extremely simple question (well extremely simple for most people).

I will not raise it, but I will answer it.   I have no problem with you deleting any reference to it on the boards you moderate.

[J. J.]

LOL at J.J. continuing to argue that 940 heads and 60 tails are not statistically significantly different from that of a fair coin.

LOL at jfern refusing to answer the two question JJ posed to him.

I already answered them a zillion times.

Oh, where?  You know, Boss Tweed answered it, with a minimum of fuss.  He claims to be 14 years old and doesn't claim to be a grad student (though he's obviously reasonably intelligent) and he was able to understand and answer the question.  Why couldn't you?

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The guy involved is a Congressman and a DeLay crony.

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If you read the first line of the article, you'd note this:

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This involves a Republican Primary for Governor in Colorado; it does not involve Tom DeLay.  Beauprez is a Representative like 434 other people; DeLay raised money for his Congressional races, but he isn't involved here.  DeLay has raised money for most sitting GOP members; I reasonably sure that we can find a Democrat that has done the same thing (Pelosi perhaps).  I don't claim that every Democrat is her "crony."

Now, it's interesting if you are particularly interested in CO politics, but it's not relevant to Congress.

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I've quoted the article in its entirety.  The term "watch" does not appear.  It does not appear as a noun referring to a time piece word on a wrist or carried in a pocket.  It refers to having several thousand addresses on it.  It's kinda hard to confuse the two.

Here is an example, nobody mentioned "watch."  The article has been posted, yet you claim that, "Somebody had mentioned a watch."  That claim verifiable false, yet you repeat it.

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Very.  And he wonders why nobody believes him.
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Yeah, but we don't to wonder anymore why he is so dilusional.  He believed the source he got this from without checking the story out for himself.  No wonder he believes everything on DU and DailyKOS
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The story is true exactly as written, I just thought it'd be a watch.


People like J.J. who won't admit that they're wrong 9 months later need to STFU already. Doesn't anyone care about the actual story, or are you all idiots who would rather score cheap political points by bashing me? You are pathetic, and an example of why America is in such sh**tty shape.
[/quote]

No, actually, we're are being honest, we quote sources, read the links that we post, and when we make a mistake, we correct it.  We don't try to concoct these lunatic theories, without evidence, and we actually read the post and the links that others do.  You post exceptionally error ridden things and then get called on it.  That is your fault, not those pointing it out.

I'm only happy to say that you are not representative of most of the Democrats in the county or on this board.   If you were, we'd be a one party, Republican, counrty.

[J. J.]

I never said anyone here mentioned watch. This is 2005, devices the size of a watch can be used for things under than telling time.

Here is your first post:

One of DeLay's cronies in the House is accused of stealing a watch from another Republican.

http://coloradopols.com/archives/2005/10/holtzman_campai_1.html

Now, you've just given anybody reading this ample reason why we shouldn't believe you about anything.

Now, you've claimed that you answered my question.  Okay, where?  Just post the link.

The race Beauprez is in is NOT a congressional race.  This is a governor's race and has no relation to his congressional activities.

At this point, you've contradicted your first post on this thread; you can't even tell the truth about your own posts on the same thread.  And everybody gets a chance to read it.

I will say this, the title for this thread is quite appropriate.

[J. J.]

You ing dishonest peice of trash. Beauprez is a Congressman. Yes, I know it's not a congressional race.

As for the questons, you are ing busted.

If you "know" that this is not a congressional election, why did you post it under section called  "Congressional Elections?"

Now, this is an interesting story about the Colorado Republican Primary for governor, but not a congressional election.  It's not related to DeLay at all.  It is exceptionally doubtful that DeLay knows any more about it than what has been released publicly, if he even read the story.

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Already answered here:

1. The set of all possible coin flips is infinite, so none of your post applies
2. Even if it was finite, it would still be statistically significant.
3. When I say that it's statistically significantly different at the 95% confidence level, that means that if
a) The null hypothesis is correct
then I falsely reject it at most 5% of the time. You don't seem to understand that. You say "5% chance that the poll is wrong", but who cares, it's irrelevant to statistical significance at the 95% confidence level, and you can't just say the poll has a 5% chance of being wrong anyways, it's a 5% chance of falsely rejecting the null hypothesis, which is meaningless if the null hypothesis is false.

1.  We are discussing a sample, 1000 tosses.

2.  You could not determine that, with a 95% chance of certainty, that the coin will come up heads.  The theory that is being tested is, does the coin always come up heads, not if the coin beats the odds.

You are referring to probability, not statistics.

1. 1000 coin tosses is a sample of 1000 from an infinite population.

2. I never said that you'd be 95% certain that the next coin would be heads. That's not what were were arguing about. That's not required to conclude that there are statistically significantly more heads than tails (with 95% confidence). If it was 50.000001% heads, and I did 10^100 coin tosses, I should basically always reject the null hypothesis of a fair coin. 

You'll note that you never answered the question (and in this post, I actually didn't ask a question). 

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This queston doesn't even make sense.

End of argument, you liar who thinks that 940 heads and 60 tails can't possibly be statistically significant.
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You don't understand expected value?  Here is the Wiki articale on it:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value

What doesn't make sense, is that Tweed (and no offense here Tweed) who doesn't claim to have or be working on an advanced graduate degree (and it possible, but most people his age don't), understands it.  You, who claim an to be a grad student that has studied this, don't.

People can read this thread and judge both your accuracy and ability.

[J. J.]

I heard about this story a few days ago and supposedly it is making waves in the state of Colorado. Funny stuff.

You have to read this story.  The Holtzman Rolodex is making the rounds.

http://chieftain.com/metro/1126615787/15

[J. J.]

J.J. --- Are you actually arguing that 940 heads and 60 tails is not statistically significant when the null hypothesis is that this is a fair coin?

No, what I've been arguing is that this result is not statistically significant if you are attempting to show that the coin will always come up heads.  There is no question that it well exceeds the expected value for heads.

Look at the result, can you state with 95% certainty that the coin will come up heads?

[J. J.]

Someone had mentioned a watch, and I quickly skimmed it, and didn't catch that it was a Rolodex, which I only now know isn't a watch.

The only person who mentioned a watch was you.  The word "watch" does not appear in the article.

Rolodex:



Rolex:



They are not quite the same thing.

[J. J.]

If I'm not mistaken... the question is, can I say with 95% certainty that the probability of getting a heads is greater than one half?

As soon as you enter into probability, you are looking at a different measure.

You could claim that the expected value is greater than you expected, even if it was 501 heads and 499 tails.  You can all sorts of things with probabilities, but you could not claim with 95% certainty that coin will come up heads.

[J. J.]

Someone had mentioned a watch, and I quickly skimmed it, and didn't catch that it was a Rolodex, which I only now know isn't a watch.

The only person who mentioned a watch was you.  The word "watch" does not appear in the article.

You seem incapable of reading. I never claimed that anyone had mentioned it on this forum, seeing as I started the thread.

This is hilarious!  :-)  One person did mention a watch.

One of DeLay's cronies in the House is accused of stealing a watch from another Republican.

http://coloradopols.com/archives/2005/10/holtzman_campai_1.html

The article doesn't use the word "watch," period.  The full text has been posted.

I'm beginning to wonder if JFRAUD hasn't been planted by the Republicans to make the Democrats look bad.  :-) That's actually beginning to look possible.

[J. J.]

Mr.-a-95%-correlation-can-never-be-statistically-significant

Talk like that will get you shot in some circles.

Like meeting of real statisticians.  :-)

[J. J.]

One of DeLay's cronies in the House is accused of stealing a watch from another Republican.

http://coloradopols.com/archives/2005/10/holtzman_campai_1.html

The article doesn't use the word "watch," period.  The full text has been posted.

I'm beginning to wonder if JFRAUD hasn't been planted by the Republicans to make the Democrats look bad.  :-) That's actually beginning to look possible.

Can you say so with 95% certainty?

Whatever you say, Mr.-a-95%-correlation-can-never-be-statistically-significant. I have no tolerance for Republicans like you who are wrong, won't admit they're wrong, and then bash me. You are exactly why I am not a Republican.
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Of course, this is exactly what a Republican plant would say.  So this is perhaps a little more evidence that Jfern is a GOP plant.  Interesting how he never seems to post while Karl Rove is on television.  Hmmm.