2014 US Congressional Election Results

[J. J.]

J.J is back!!!!!! Always used to read his posts, great to finally see him post again!!!

I have been posting sporadically for a few weeks. 

[J. J.]

Scott wins in FL.

VA will go to a recount. 

[J. J.]

Scott wins in FL.

Wrong board...

Oh, that's you, J.J. Why am I even bother?

Just adding to another post. 

[J. J.]

On the bright side, looks like we've averted complete disaster in Virginia. Warner currently up 13,000 votes with >99% in.

Imagine if someone posted Warner surviving as a "bright side" yesterday.

Technically, Gillespie can ask for a recount in VA, says the Independent from New York who said that the only way Warner was going to lose if he murdered someone and they found his prints on the murder weapon.

Impressive almost win for Gillespie.

He can if he wants, but he won't be making up that many votes in a recount no matter what.

You (and other Democrats) got cocky before this election, and look what happened.  Don't count Ed Gillespie out just yet.  

Uh, is this a joke? It's completely implausible to make up 13,000 votes in a recount, unless there's a bunch of uncounted ballots yet to be discovered. But since this is Virginia and not Illinois or Wisconsin, the chances of that seem pretty slim. It's hard enough to make up 1,000 votes in a recount, much less 13x that.

All precincts were counted, but that was only 95% of the ballots.  I'm guessing absentees

[J. J.]

Fox is projecting a minimum of a 12 seat gain in the House; this would tie the post WW II numbers.  If so, it will be a route. 

[J. J.]

What House seats are still out?

I think in PA, you can drive from City Avenue in Philadelphia to the Allegheny County line, and never enter a Democratic US House District. 

[J. J.]

An 18 seat gain in the House and 9 seats in the Senate would be a rout.  I'm still a bit skeptical it will happen. 

[J. J.]

My guess is the US house will be 246-248 R, 188-87 D.  It will either tie or break the post World War II numbers. 

[J. J.]

My guess is the US house will be 246-248 R, 188-87 D.  It will either tie or break the post World War II numbers. 

246 to 249. CA-16, AZ-07 and CA-07 remain in play.

I know, but I expect the GOP to lose at least one of those three you mentioned. 

[J. J.]

My guess is the US house will be 246-248 R, 188-87 D.  It will either tie or break the post World War II numbers. 

This means 12-15 net pickups, with 3 for the Dems and 15-18 for the GOP.

Pick-ups

Dem

CA-31 (open)
FL-2 (Southerland)
NE-2 (Terry)

GOP

NV-4 (Horsford)
TX-23 (Gallego)
NH-1 (Shea-Porter)
ME-2 (open)
IA-1 (open)
UT-4 (open)
WV-3 (Rahall)
GA-12 (Barrow)
NC-7 (open)
IL-10 (Schneider)
IL-12 (Enyart)
NY-1 (Bishop)
NY-21 (open)
NY-24 (Maffei)
FL-26 (Garcia)

Where else am I missing? Which of these has the highest D-PVI?

You forgot the two LA districts; they are both likely Democratic pickups; that takes it up to 246.  Then you AZ-4, CA-7, CA-16.  I think they will carry at least one of them, for 247

[J. J.]

Crunched the number on CA-16, and the Dems hold it.  Based on the splits of the remaining ballots, the past split of Fresno County of about 63-37 would have to drop to around 55-45 for the race to be even at the end. It isn't happening. Costa will win by about 650 votes, plus or minus.

CA-07 does not look too good for the Pubs either. Ose needs a swing to him of a couple of points on what remains, from what went before. Still in the hunt, but the underdog now.

So that leaves AZ-02, where somebody else claims that the final projection is for a 40 votes McSally win. So that one remains a slight tilt GOP seat.

The 2 LA districts and one of those three.  247? 

[J. J.]

Out of roughly 20,000 ballots counted today, Begich only made up 238 votes.

Does that include the previous 15,000 or is this another whole group of 20,000.

If yes, Begich would need ot win by 68%-32% amongst those remaining votes. If not, he would need to win by 65%-35% to overtake Sullivan. I know Fox called it this morning.

AP called it for Sullivan as well. 

[J. J.]

Anything on AZ-4?