National Early Vote: Gallup

[J. J.]

What?

I can believe it.  There are a lot of R states with early voting, and the R's are turning out heavily, proportional to 2008.  

The statistic is meaningless.  

[J. J.]

What?

I can believe it.  

Of course you would. That's why you've become our favorite punching bag.

Oh, you think Obama is running up absentee votes in UT and MS? 

[J. J.]

What?

I can believe it.  

Of course you would. That's why you've become our favorite punching bag.

You didn't bother reading the explanation given in the thread? Care to offer some substance for a change, maybe?

You mean besides the fact that virtually every other NATIONAL poll gives Obama a substantial lead among early voters?
No, I've nothing else of substance to add.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Please, Gustaf.......he's a very substantive douchebag.

Grumps, you were right.   

[J. J.]

Would you actually care to site a national poll that says this?  This is the only one I've heard of and it is pretty meaningless, so other pollsters don't do it.  Gallup just had some free time on its hands. 

In their last day the IPSOS/Reuters poll found Obama ahead among early voters 58-39.

Today's PPP poll finds Obama ahead among early voters 59-41.

IIRC, the last NBC/WSJ poll also found Obama winning among early voters, albeit by a narrower margin.

Oh, and next time try to quote properly. You aren't a newbie around here.

Do you have a link to the PPP?  IPOS is problematic and isn't a separate poll.  Neither is the appalling Marist poll. 

[J. J.]

Gallup is way closer to GMU professor early vote tracking like 3-4%

No, McDonald (link) says that 13% have already voted, and that's not counting the millions of ballots that are in the mail, haven't been processed yet, or have been filled out but not mailed in yet.

Some of those are fairly likely to miss the deadline.  It's not exactly like they have a few weeks to get them in.   

[J. J.]

Gallup is way closer to GMU professor early vote tracking like 3-4%

No, McDonald (link) says that 13% have already voted, and that's not counting the millions of ballots that are in the mail, haven't been processed yet, or have been filled out but not mailed in yet.

It's also not counting the ballots that have been mailed in, and logged, but not entered into data posted on a particular county website. Political junkies may expect every county in the nation to be posting mail-in votes in real time, but that seems optimistic, if I know anything about local government.

Except in some states like WA, there are relatively few coming in on a day to day basis.