An analysis of possible outcomes

[J. J.]

This is my current map.

Obama:  281

Romney: 257

I'd give it a 50%, with about 20% roughly 50 EV either way  (10% is a Romney victory)

This is my realignment map:

I give it a 30% chance with Romney carrying at least one of the toss up states.

Romney:  395 (396)

Obama:  131 (142)

Overall, today, I'd Obama a 60% chance of winning.

[J. J.]

30% chance of Romney getting 396 electoral votes?  IIRC you have a background in math or stats, so the only possibility is that you're trolling us.

I'm looking at a 30% chance of a realigning election.  That deals with macro trends.  There is a whole thread on it that was started in January 2008.

When I first wrote about it, I was expecting the Republicans to win 2008 and this to be a Democratic year.  I was actually looking for something along the lines of 1932 in 2012.