Will Romney ever pull out of Ohio?

[J. J.]

PPP just had OH at +4 Obama.  PPP has a slight Democratic lean, so it is probably at less than 4 point.  I can understand Romney attacking there, and I can understand Obama defending there.

What I can't figure out why Obama has expanded his radio advertising in PA, which is a mystery.  Sure, it is probably tightened, but I'd bet Obama is ahead by twice as much than in OH.

[J. J.]

Uh, JJ, you do realize that virtually every other pollster has shown Obama with a bigger lead in Ohio than PPP, right?

I have not trusted a mail poll since 1936. 

I'm not crazy about those Uni polls for Ohio. 

[J. J.]

I'm not crazy about those Uni polls for Ohio. 

Of course not, since they show your candidate losing.

No, they are Uni polls, none of which have a good record in that state; I've said the same things about Uni polls that show Romney ahead.  In this case, of those recent polls, PPP is the only one that is a professional pollster, with a good track record.

[J. J.]

Washington Post and Fox News also have Obama up 8 and 7, but I'm sure you have a reason to discount those polls too.

Track record is no where near as good as PPP (and hasn't been good since prior to 1980 in the case of WP); the only thing left leaning on Fox is their polling.  On top of that, they are both older, with Fox being two weeks old.

You were around for the Vorlon's comments on polling, were you not?

[J. J.]

Washington Post and Fox News also have Obama up 8 and 7, but I'm sure you have a reason to discount those polls too.

Track record is no where near as good as PPP (and hasn't been good since prior to 1980 in the case of WP); the only thing left leaning on Fox is their polling.  On top of that, they are both older, with Fox being two weeks old.

J.J., would you say "I don't look at [those] polls"?

No, but I do realize that all polls are not created equally, and that the numbers change over time.

I don't put a lot of stock in Uni polls.  Newspaper polls, like the ones showing Bush carrying MI in 2004, are also problematic.  Mail polling is so 1935.