PA-Franklin & Marshall College: Obama+9

[J. J.]

It is probably the best poll for PA, but they are noted for not pushing, and getting a high undecided (that breaks down the same way).  My guess is 44% to 56%.

[J. J.]

Keep in mind, there was a very small chance Romney was going to carry PA anyhow.  Actually, I'm not even sure why anyone really considers it a toss-up to begin with.  It hasn't gone to the GOP since '88 and outside of maybe '04, it wasn't that close in any other year.

It was close in 2000 also. This is the first time in 40 years the state isn't seriously contested.

Well, in all fairness, McCain in 2008 shouldn't have been contesting it.  It was not close in 1992 and 1996.

[J. J.]

Remember, this is the only poll that J.J. trusts in Pennsylvania, so this is important:

Only university poll that I trust for PA.  They do get it right.  I believe them.

[J. J.]

Keep in mind, there was a very small chance Romney was going to carry PA anyhow.  Actually, I'm not even sure why anyone really considers it a toss-up to begin with.  It hasn't gone to the GOP since '88 and outside of maybe '04, it wasn't that close in any other year.

It was close in 2000 also. This is the first time in 40 years the state isn't seriously contested.

Well, in all fairness, McCain in 2008 shouldn't have been contesting it.  It was not close in 1992 and 1996.

Says the person that insisted Obama would win Pennsylvania by 1%.

I thought it would be less, but not quite by one point.

[J. J.]

F&M is a good pollster. The school's a good one and only about 15 minutes from where I live; it's one of my top colleges that I'd like to attend.

Terry Madonna, the guy who does it, it a great pollster.  He was at Millersville until the mid 2000's but he was always good.  If he'd switch to another school, that would be the best uni poll for PA.

[J. J.]

Keep in mind, there was a very small chance Romney was going to carry PA anyhow.  Actually, I'm not even sure why anyone really considers it a toss-up to begin with.  It hasn't gone to the GOP since '88 and outside of maybe '04, it wasn't that close in any other year.

It was close in 2000 also. This is the first time in 40 years the state isn't seriously contested.

Well, in all fairness, McCain in 2008 shouldn't have been contesting it.  It was not close in 1992 and 1996.

Says the person that insisted Obama would win Pennsylvania by 1%.

I thought it would be less, but not quite by one point.

You remember (or want to remember?) incorrectly:

I'm predicting Obama, but by 1.5 points, in PA.

A month out, but the polling showed Obama was winning it.

[J. J.]

You kept insisting that margin until Election Day. Remember...Bradley Effect!!!

No, but I did think it would be lower than the polling in PA, and expressed surprise when they were right on.  I've made the point that they were dead on in PA many times since.

[J. J.]

Does anyone who lives in Pennsylvania know why Obama appears to be polling better than Casey all of the sudden?

Smith is advertizing.  Casey is not.

Casey has a few problems:

1.  Casey got to where he is because his last name is Casey; his father was Governor (and I voted for him).  Casey, Senior was last elected 22 years ago.  A lot of people have forgotten or don't a really firm memory of him.

2.  Casey's record is not exactly stellar.  Smith is making a point that Casey hasn't even sponsored a single bill since he got there.  Casey has also been fairly quiet in the Senate, in that he really hasn't been seen as a leader or spokesman in the Senate, unlike, Specter, Santorum, or even Toomey.