Quinnipiac: Obama DOMINATING in OH & FL

[J. J.]

First, I'm not too impressed with Quinnipiac outside of New England, New York or New Jersey (where they are top notch).

Pennsylvania? Much in line with November 2008. Florida, Ohio... without corroboration by other pollsters theses would look like outliers.

Second, they were not planning to poll PA until the last week of October; what happened?

[J. J.]

First, I'm not too impressed with Quinnipiac outside of New England, New York or New Jersey (where they are top notch).

Pennsylvania? Much in line with November 2008. Florida, Ohio... without corroboration by other pollsters theses would look like outliers.

Second, they were not planning to poll PA until the last week of October; what happened?

Uh, that was PPP who said that they won't poll PA until the last week of October. Quinnipiac never said that.

Thanks, I forgot.

[J. J.]

Looking at the rest of the FL polls, Quinnipaic could be either an outlier or they have a really skewed sampling.

PPP, M-D, have it closer, outside of the MOE.

[J. J.]

Looking at the rest of the FL polls, Quinnipaic could be either an outlier or they have a really skewed sampling.

PPP, M-D, have it closer, outside of the MOE.

Skewed you say!!

It is not matching the other polls, all of which show it much closer.  And we're talking about PPP and Mason Dixon.

[J. J.]

This is my point - the state polling and most of the national polling is suggesting this collapse, but it's not being shown to a large extent on Gallup and not at all on Ras...

Here is what I think is happening.  The 47% comment came out last week, while these polls were being taken.

Rasmussen, on a three day cycle caught it late last week; Romney dropped and some ancillary numbers improved.  Then the comment became internalized; on Rasmussen, Romney recovered.

This, and Gallup, is on a longer cycle (and Quinnipiac probably has D's oversampled).  Last week, on Gallup's weekly numbers, Romney improved.  Now the sample is totally the reaction to the comment.

Romney is improving (as per Rasmussen), but that won't show up until the weekend when the sampling from 9/19-23 drops out.  That is why I'm saying wait until Monday, 1/10, because that heavily pro Obama sample will drop out at that time (if it is there).  And yes, I was saying, last week, that these reaction numbers should hit in Gallup this week.

Another, less optimistic possibility is that Rasmussen has a heavily pro Romney sample in it, that will drop out tomorrow. 

Oh course, if I'm right, the Democrats will be complaining about the polls and the Republicans will be cheering Obama's "collapse."

[J. J.]

This is my point - the state polling and most of the national polling is suggesting this collapse, but it's not being shown to a large extent on Gallup and not at all on Ras...

Here is what I think is happening.  The 47% comment came out last week, while these polls were being taken.

Undoubtedly, polls will tighten in October. Of course, Obama is not going to win Florida by 8 o 9 points. But you fail to include Obama was ahead in most swing states even before the 47 percent comment, even before Romney's Libya remark and, frankly, even before either the Democratic or Republican conventions. So even if polls snap back drastically, it may just snap back to a tie in Florida and slim lead for Romney in North Carolina and 5 point edge in Ohio and PA.  Also, you don't seem to realize as, each day passes, more and more people make up their minds and stick to it, making wild swings less likely barring major, major bad news/crisis.  Still, I fully expect the Romney is "closing the gap" and "polls tighten" stories. But "tighten" to what?? Obama with 280 electoral votes instead of 340?

Well, in terms of the national polls, Obama was slumping until the data from the 47% comment was entering.  And Romney was improving in the state polls.

If this is just due to the 47% comment, Romney should be tied or better on Gallup at the start of the week.

[J. J.]

Don't understand why you just assume the 47 percent was a blip instead of a seminal moment in the campaign. Problem for Romney is that video seems to have just reinforced concerns about him many voters had already, and crystalized $50 million of summer  attack ads from Obama over Bain, etc, etc. Again, think polls will tighten, but not so sure -- especially less than 6 weeks before the election - that the 47 percent thing should just be viewed as a blip that will work itself out of the polls in a few days. Could be wrong, but sort of seems that the polls are sort of stabilizing.

I wasn't on Rasmussen, though it had an effect.  Libya was suppose to a "seminal moment," a week before, but Romney improved.

[J. J.]

Don't understand why you just assume the 47 percent was a blip instead of a seminal moment in the campaign. Problem for Romney is that video seems to have just reinforced concerns about him many voters had already, and crystalized $50 million of summer  attack ads from Obama over Bain, etc, etc. Again, think polls will tighten, but not so sure -- especially less than 6 weeks before the election - that the 47 percent thing should just be viewed as a blip that will work itself out of the polls in a few days. Could be wrong, but sort of seems that the polls are sort of stabilizing.

I wasn't on Rasmussen, though it had an effect.  Libya was suppose to a "seminal moment," a week before, but Romney improved.

I think the Libya thing wasn't a foundational shock... I think the 47% numbers were.

Hence the word, "supposedly." 

1.  The Libya comment may have been a net plus, probably a short lived one.

2.  The 47% comment was a net minus, but it may be a short lived one.