OH-Pres, Gravis Marketing: Romney leads by 3

[J. J.]

What absolutely fabulous news! The path to victory is being blazed as we speak.

If this showed Obama ahead by 20, you'd still find a way to spin it as being good news for Romney.

Well it is good news for Romney.  It would be even better news if it was an established pollster.

[J. J.]

What absolutely fabulous news! The path to victory is being blazed as we speak.

If this showed Obama ahead by 20, you'd still find a way to spin it as being good news for Romney.

Well it is good news for Romney.  It would be even better news if it was an established pollster.

Near-zero credibility. If someone more credible -- let us say PPP, Quinnipiac, or even Rasmussen -- got such a result one might have something.

I do not include Gravis in my model.

That was the point.

[J. J.]

This is a polling firm that has 'marketing' in its name.

A lot of them do market research.

[J. J.]

This is a polling firm that has 'marketing' in its name.

A lot of them do market research.

You missed the point complete, J.J.

No, a lot of polling firms specialize in market research.  That doesn't necessarily translate well into experience with political polling. I'm skeptical because, until the last month, I've never heard of these people.  They probably are okay, technically, with what they normally do.

[J. J.]

Gravis has a Republican house effect, but this still shows a swing of 4 points towards Romney -- even if you're too skeptical to include it in your average (and averages are supposed to include outliers, folks), you should still note the swing.

Gravis isn't exactly known as a political pollster.