The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread

[J. J.]

Pro-tip for Mike: don't waste your time arguing with J.J. You'd make more progress with a brick wall.

Lief, the numbers were showing, so far, that the ballot requests are 25% in.  You can't change that.  There is time to request.

NC is also showing an 80,000 Democratic net loss so far from 2008.  It is possible that they can make it up, but their "late registration" looks to be about 60% of what it was in 2008.  That doesn't factor in any effect from the debate.

[J. J.]

Democrats would be wise to forget about NC and start paying attention to MI, PA and maybe even OR...

If Democrats still want to win this, they're going to have to pull off a Gore 2000 with a full delivery...

NC, which was close in 2008, is probably lost.  It would be better to divert resources to OH, IA, CO and even VA.

[J. J.]

NC voter registration, showed a net gain of D's over the last week of 7858.

There is now a net loss for the D's since 2008 of 80,224 in NC.

A couple points

1. Democrats are actually up in registration at this point compared to 2008. They made massive gains with in-person registration.

They will have to make a 80,224 net gain to equal the spot where they were in 2008.  The can register with one stop voting, but that has not started yet.  This was pre-debate, so the gap could increase.

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And so far, they are:

Not making up for the lost non black Democrats and they are not turning out, via absentee.  Neither are college students, as this is skewing older.

[J. J.]

Absentees accounted for less than 9% of early votes cast in 2008. They also were more Republican than this year.

Again, we have lower percentage of ballots cast at this point based on the number of requests (2012) versus the number of absentee ballot received (2008) and the number of requests are running constant.  They tended to run at about +20 GOP in 2008 and, so far, they are running +25.

As noted in September:

"Thus registered Republicans composed 51% of the earliest absentee ballot applications in 2008 and 42% in 2012."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/absentee-ballot-applicati_b_1868814.html

The Republicans are now at 52%.  Branson noted earlier on this thread that the gap between R and D was R +20 in 2008.  Today, in terms of applications, it is R +25.  The people making the applications are, obviously, planning to vote.  In terms of the votes case, so far, it is R +26.

So in NC, you have more requests for ballots from R's, proportionally, that you had in 2008.  You have both parties returning ballots at about the same rate as they are requesting them.  You have the number of R requesting ballots increasing and then holding steady at the higher levels.  You also have fewer ballots, as a percentage, returned at this point, than in 2008, and fewer ballots being requested.

Further, while NC does permit same day registration for "one stop voters," in 2008 it gave the Democrats a net gain of slightly under 40,000.  We'll have to wait until the end of this week, but we'll see if the D's get a net gain of 40,000.  Hint:  They didn't in 2008.

[J. J.]

Absentee figures by Party in 2008

Republican: 122,412 (53.74%)
Democratic: 63,701 (27.96%)
Unaffiliated: 41,569 (18.25%)

Look familiar?

No.  Do you have a link?

[J. J.]

Absentee figures by Party in 2008

Republican: 122,412 (53.74%)
Democratic: 63,701 (27.96%)
Unaffiliated: 41,569 (18.25%)

Look familiar?

No.  Do you have a link?

For some reason i don't seem to able to link directly but if you can find the info here if you dig.

http://www.ncsbe.gov/content.aspx?id=93

The only thing that I found was 48% Democrat and 40% Republican, but that includes in person voting. 

As noted, it was R+20 in 2008, and it is running R+25 to R+26 now.

[J. J.]

Absentee figures by Party in 2008

Republican: 122,412 (53.74%)
Democratic: 63,701 (27.96%)
Unaffiliated: 41,569 (18.25%)

Look familiar?

No.  Do you have a link?

For some reason i don't seem to able to link directly but if you can find the info here if you dig.

http://www.ncsbe.gov/content.aspx?id=93

The only thing that I found was 48% Democrat and 40% Republican, but that includes in person voting. 

As noted, it was R+20 in 2008, and it is running R+25 to R+26 now.

I don't know why they did not publish the totals but if you have time to kill you can add up all the sub categories  and come up with the same numbers Dan the Roman  did.  I just wasted an hour doing just that.

Which still doesn't take into account the time.   As noted:



"Thus registered Republicans composed 51% of the earliest absentee ballot applications in 2008 and 42% in 2012."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/absentee-ballot-applicati_b_1868814.html

[J. J.]

Iowa Absentee Ballot requests are:

2008

D:  47%

R:  28.2%



2012 (as of 10/9)

D: 50.1%

R  28.2%

It looks like the bulk of the D request were early (based on what ones were returned). 

It looks like these were

[J. J.]

The Ohio absentee numbers are beginning to look grim for Obama.

2008

D:  33.31%

R:  19.07%

2012 (10/9)

D:  30.03

R:  24.06

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4OVE#gid=0

The gap has been closing bit by bit.

[J. J.]

The Ohio absentee numbers are beginning to look grim for Obama.

2008

D:  33.31%

R:  19.07%

2012 (10/9)

D:  30.03

R:  24.06

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4OVE#gid=0

The gap has been closing bit by bit.

They don't have party registration in Ohio, so comparing the two is disengenous.

They had the same registration type in 2008, so the comparison is quite legitimate.  They do have party registration, but it is not strong and can be changed on primary days.

[J. J.]

My understanding is that you can declare as well. 

AFAIK you are only registered with a party in Ohio if you voted in the primary for it in either 2010 or 2012. The dems did not have a contested primary in 2012 so comparing it to 2008, when they did, is just silly.

In this case, the bulk of people registering Republican will have to vote for one of the candidates on the GOP side.

[J. J.]

Iowa's absentee requests are interesting:

Dem    49.1%
Rep    29.0%
None/Oth    21.9%
   
in 2008, they were:

Dem 47
Rep 28.2
Other 24.8

Both the R and D have improved, the the D's still hold the edge.  It has closed a bit.

[J. J.]

Iowa's absentee requests are interesting:

Dem    49.1%
Rep    29.0%
None/Oth    21.9%
   
in 1998, they were:

Dem 47
Rep 28.2
Other 24.8

Both the R and D have improved, the the D's still hold the edge.  It has closed a bit.

Today, in terms of absentee ballot requests, Iowa Republicans have closed the gap below the 2008 levels, but not by a lot.

Party Reg    
Dem    48.1%
Rep    29.7%
None/Oth    22.1%

[J. J.]

Interesting to see non-Hispanic white absolute numbers be static or dropping in most states from 2008.

Ah, there must be a lot of black and Hispanic Republicans.  OH, NC, and IA (barely) are closer than 2008, so far.

[J. J.]

Interesting to see non-Hispanic white absolute numbers be static or dropping in most states from 2008.

Ah, there must be a lot of black and Hispanic Republicans.  OH, NC, and IA (barely) are closer than 2008, so far.

Well, that's a weird way of making that inferences.

Well, strictly in terms of the party of people applying for absentee ballots, R's have been improving in terms of percentage of the electorate.

[J. J.]

Iowa's absentee requests are interesting:

Dem    49.1%
Rep    29.0%
None/Oth    21.9%
   
in 1998, they were:

Dem 47
Rep 28.2
Other 24.8

Both the R and D have improved, the the D's still hold the edge.  It has closed a bit.

The slippage is continuing, so far:

Party Reg    
Dem    47.5%
Rep    30.2%
None/Oth    22.3%
   

It is there, but it is not substantial.

[J. J.]

Interesting to see non-Hispanic white absolute numbers be static or dropping in most states from 2008.

Ah, there must be a lot of black and Hispanic Republicans.  OH, NC, and IA (barely) are closer than 2008, so far.

Well, that's a weird way of making that inferences.

Well, strictly in terms of the party of people applying for absentee ballots, R's have been improving in terms of percentage of the electorate.

The number of people applying for absentee ballots is a subset of the total number of voters, right? Just to be sure we're on the same page?

A lower subset, applications for absentee ballots.  Where possible, I'm trying to look at the same time period.  One guy (okay he has a Ph D and writes for Huffington), looked at the differences in NC.  He stated that it was about a 20 point gap in the early voting in 2008; it is currently about 23.5%.  It's not a lot, but it is significant.

Likewise there was a huge gap in Iowa in favor of D's in 2008.  In 2012, there is still a huge gap, but it is slightly smaller, and decreasing, so far.

[J. J.]

Thanks. I'm still trying to understand how you're getting to there being more black and Hispanic republicans (even sarcastically) from the number of non-Hispanic white voters being steady, even if there's some marginal improvement in absentee ballot requests from Rs or something. Help me understand.

Well, and yes, I am being sarcastic, the electorate looks like it is more R than in 2008.  Since there was relatively more nonwhite/non Hispanic voters in 2008, and there are more R's voting, they must be Republican.  I'm obviously joking. 

I, not joking, expect the black/Hispanic proportion of the electorate to decline.

[J. J.]

The Ohio Democrats are timid, so i am fairly certain that Husted will be able to easily steal this state for Robme and the Koch brothers.

[sarcasm]Wow!  Sending everyone an absentee ballot application really suppresses the vote. [/quote]

[J. J.]

According to the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll 10% of Dems have already voted, only 4% of Republicans and 5% of Independents.
http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=12073

Then OH is going Romney.  The votes turned in are running about 7 points for the Democrats.

[J. J.]

Latest Early Voting article by Prof Michael McDonald.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/early-voting-rising_b_1962843.html

As of today, he is wrong about IA, and his statement contracts his previous statement about NC.

[J. J.]

According to the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll 10% of Dems have already voted, only 4% of Republicans and 5% of Independents.
http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=12073

Then OH is going Romney.  The votes turned in are running about 7 points for the Democrats.

Again party registration numbers in Ohio are deeply flawed (bangs head against wall).

And again, while not a perfect measurement, still telling, because the gap has closed by more than half. 

[J. J.]

According to the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll 10% of Dems have already voted, only 4% of Republicans and 5% of Independents.
http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=12073

Then OH is going Romney.  The votes turned in are running about 7 points for the Democrats.

Again party registration numbers in Ohio are deeply flawed (bangs head against wall).

And again, while not a perfect measurement, still telling, because the gap has closed by more than half. 

Voter registration has gone from about a 60-40 D-R ratio to about a 65-35 R-D ratio. Early voting/absentee voting has moved far less. Literally there are probably around almost twice as many "Republicans" as "Democrats" right now.

Also early voting in Cuyahoga is running ahead of 2008 numbers:

http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/pdf_boe/en-US/2012/2008_2012InHouseVotingDailyComparison.pdf

Here are current statistics:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4OVE#gid=0

Now, a lot of those of people (though not all) that voted in the R Primary will be voting for the R candidate.

[J. J.]

My favorite J.J. characteristic is his tendency to repeat the same thing over and over again, dismissing all evidence to the contrary and even ignoring and discounting the word of people who are actually experts on the thing he's talking about.

No, I am saying point blank that, as of yesterday, MacDonald was wrong, regarding IA.  Now, in all fairness, he probably wrote the blog before that happened.  As of yesterday, the gap has closed.  It had been closing for the past week.  The gap is shrinking.

Also, based on MacDonald's earlier statement, the gap is larger, and more favorable to the GOP, in NC.

I will add the words, "so far," to both.  The gap in NC has narrowed.

OH does have the registration issue, however, there is still a very large narrowing of that gap, as of yesterday.

[J. J.]

Might have already been posted, but this is a good website for keeping track of all the early voting: http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

That is the one I've bee using.

NC, basically on the last day of registration, the Democrats are down 72,934 from this point in 2008. There are still some applications unprocessed and "same day voters" can register.  In 2008, that accounted for a net gain of 40,000.  (I expect that net gain to be slightly lower in 2012.)

http://www.ncsbe.gov/content.aspx?id=41

In looking over the last the three weeks, the net D gain was roughly

9/29/12

8,000

10/6/12

8,800

10/13/12

7,300

That final number may simply be natural or it may be a measure of enthusiasm.