The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread

[J. J.]

Considering that I live in a state without early voting, I really do not see how this is suppression, especially since every voter was sent an absentee ballot application. 

[J. J.]

Considering that I live in a state without early voting, I really do not see how this is suppression, especially since every voter was sent an absentee ballot application. 

Early voting was instituted because under the Republican SOS, voting lines in 2004 were so long (several hours) that they disenfranchised people who because of work and family requirements could not devote that time. Democratic voters are more likely to be in hourly jobs and lack the flexibility and transportation tools that give affluent retirees and professionals more leeway in when they vote.

Well, they can send in the application by mail; they don't have to wait at all.  It is not like there is no a viable alternative.

[J. J.]

NC, R's have a net gain of 50,000 registered voters (including same day voters) over 2008. 

[J. J.]

This was mentioned before:

In NC the % of the electorate in 2008 that was black was 21.6.

In 2012, it was 22.4.

While there has been an increase in the black share of the electorate, and black people represent a slighter % of the electorate, it at a lower rate.

2008 (same point in time):  26.7

2012:  27.1

Democratic turnout bumped a bit yesterday:

Dem    47.6%
Rep    31.8%
None/Oth    20.6%

That gap has shrunk by 5.8 points, from 21.2 to 15.8 points. 

[J. J.]

Iowa yesterday: 

Dem    43.0%
Rep    32.2%
None/Oth    24.8%

Iowa Today:

Dem    42.6%
Rep    32.3%
None/Oth    25.2%
   
The final gap in 2008 was 18.0.   

[J. J.]

This was mentioned before:

In NC the % of the electorate in 2008 that was black was 21.6.

In 2012, it was 22.4.

While there has been an increase in the black share of the electorate, and black people represent a slighter % of the electorate, it at a lower rate.

2008 (same point in time):  26.7

2012:  27.1

What conclusion might you draw from that, taken along with your observation that Republican early turnout is significantly higher than in 2008? Recall that Obama stressed early voting in both elections, while Republicans only stressed it this election.

Well, a few people pointed to the proportional increase in black voters and it will account for a slight increase in the black proportion of the electorate.  It will not be proportional to the number of registered black voters. 

Basically, there are more black voters in 2012 in NC, but the proportion of those that turn out will decline.

Hypothetically, assume that there is a constituency A.  In 2008, these were the numbers:

10,000 black voters:

75% turn out

7500 black voters turn out

In 2012:

12,000 black voters

73% turn out

8760 black voters turn out. 

Those are just hypothetical numbers, but I wanted to note that, in such cases, it wouldn't be 9,000. 

[J. J.]

Nevada early voting results - updated 11/03/2012

Votes cast: 701845 - 56%
D: 307877
R: 259913
I: 134055

Advantage D+47964

Early voting ended yesterday.

Less than 50 K, but I'd still give the advantage to Obama. 

[J. J.]

Interesting, but unlikely to be true in reality.

Currently, with one day of Early voting left, and with over 50% of the vote in

46% of Registered African Americans
36% of Registered Whites
30% Others

Have voted. African American turnout % should be pretty close to the white one if not exceeding it.

Well the figures were hypothetical.  The percentage of the black electorate, while still strong, has dropped a bit from 2008.  That might play into modeling a bit. 

[J. J.]

Yep, those 2008 election day McCain voters are really getting out the early vote this year.

My guess is that these are not the McCain voters and that Obama will do worse in IA on election day than he did 2008. 

[J. J.]

Nevada early voting results - updated 11/03/2012

Votes cast: 701845 - 56%
D: 307877
R: 259913
I: 134055

Advantage D+47964

Early voting ended yesterday.

Less than 50 K, but I'd still give the advantage to Obama. 

Better than I expected, however what's the number Obama was up last time on EV?  I figured it will be within 2, may get lucky but Nevada is the one place Republicans may be cannibalizing their early vote.

I'd guess about 2.

[J. J.]

Since they have great demographics, I worked out the African American vote in NC.

In 2008, 51.6% of the black electorate had voted.

In 2012, 50.3% of the black electorate had voted.

Note that black registration has changed:

2008:  21.6%

2012:  22.4%

Note that black percentage of the electorate has increased by 0.7 points. 

[J. J.]

ME is now showing gains of R percentages over 2008:

2008

Dem
   41.1%
Rep
   27.7%
No/Oth
   31.2%

2012

Party Reg    
Dem    40.2%
Rep    29.1%
Green    2.7%
None    28.0%

This is noteworthy only because it one of the few states where this wasn't happening. 

[J. J.]

IA 2008 final:

Party 
Dem 46.9%
Rep 28.9%
No/Oth 24.2%

IA Today:

Dem 42.3%
Rep 32.1%
None/Oth 25.6%

I think D's might have dropped 0.1 points.

There was speculation about a massive D surge at the end, but, so far, there have been slight gains or holds by the R's.

It does not include satellite sites, from what I can tell.   

[J. J.]

It's interesting that whites are up about 20,000, black + other is up 80,000. I don't expect Obama to win but I am really interested to see by what number he loses.

I posted it earlier:

In 2008, 51.6% of the black electorate had voted.

In 2012, 50.3% of the black electorate had voted.

Note that black registration has changed:

2008:  21.6%

2012:  22.4%

Note that black percentage of the electorate has increased by 0.7 points. 

[J. J.]

That is an utterly meaningless statistic, JJ. In terms of both % of early voters and raw numbers of EV, non-white voter share is up.

As I, and others, have noted repeatedly on this thread.  I did want to note, however, that this was do to increased registration, and that the % of Black turnout has dropped. 

[J. J.]

That is an utterly meaningless statistic, JJ. In terms of both % of early voters and raw numbers of EV, non-white voter share is up.

As I, and others, have noted repeatedly on this thread.  I did want to note, however, that this was do to increased registration, and that the % of Black turnout has dropped. 

Your posting an utterly meaningless statistic is duly noted.

The non-white share of EV is up from 2008. Probably not enough for Obama to carry NC, but that is still the relevent statistic here.

Not really.  Registration increased; turnout increased at a lower rate. 

[J. J.]

McDonald made a very good point here:  http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/democrats-leaving-mail-ba_b_2069037.html

McDonald had talked about the returned ballots and expected a D increase at the end.  I think he makes a valid point:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That is the point I have been making about IA. 

[J. J.]

Sorry for the confusion J.J., I meant by what number he loses the state in the real election. These data don't really show anything for that.

I think it does tell us something.  The group that is sitting out this election is primarily white Democrats, at least in NC. 

[J. J.]

Nearly Final Iowa Early Votes.

Total: 673,124

Dem: 281,966 (41.9%)
Rep: 215,439 (32.0%)
Other: 175,719(26.1%)

I believe more absentees could come in today. Good numbers for the president IMHO. Of course the margins will narrow but it will be tough for republicans to make up a 66,000+ vote deficit.

Really bad numbers for Obama.  His early voting numbers have been cut by 8.1 points from 2008, and the trend is continuing to show a drop.  The Democrats were expected to surge.  They have not. 

[J. J.]

Nearly Final Iowa Early Votes.

Total: 673,124

Dem: 281,966 (41.9%)
Rep: 215,439 (32.0%)
Other: 175,719(26.1%)

I believe more absentees could come in today. Good numbers for the president IMHO. Of course the margins will narrow but it will be tough for republicans to make up a 66,000+ vote deficit.

Really bad numbers for Obama.  His early voting numbers have been cut by 8.1 points from 2008, and the trend is continuing to show a drop.  The Democrats were expected to surge.  They have not. 

You seem fixated on the percentages while ignoring the raw vote totals. Total early vote turnout up across the board, since voter registration is about equal it only makes sense that the higher the total turnout the more it will resemble the electorate as a whole.

You make an assumption that turnout will look like 2008 on election day; I don't. 

[J. J.]

You make an assumption that turnout will look like 2008 on election day; I don't. 

This is true. guess we will know who was right in about 12 hours.

It wasn't but it wasn't enough to flip the state.